Dolphins, Chiefs Fantasy Football Start/Sit Decisions: Should You Start Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes, Raheem Mostert, Rashee Rice and More?

The NFL playoffs are nearly here, and there’s some fantastic matchups for the Wild Card Round this weekend.

Let’s take a look at the second game of the playoffs - Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs - and determine what guys you should be starting in playoff fantasy leagues or DFS.

We’ll provide an outlook for each game, so check back for more stories. The Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans article can be read here.

Quarterback Options

This is a great quarterback matchup between Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes and Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa. Both guys are talented passers but struggled at points this season. With horrible weather expected in KC on Saturday, I’ll be interested to see if it greatly affects either guy.

As much as people want to say Mahomes struggled this season, there were only two games in which he didn’t reach 200 passing yards. He only topped 300 yards on four occasions though. Mahomes threw a touchdown in all but one game, with multiple scores in nine contests, while throwing 14 interceptions across 11 weeks.

Tagovailoa started the season hot and faded a bit as the season came to a close. He topped 200 passing yards in all but two games, with five games over 300 yards. Tagovailoa had a touchdown pass in all but one game and threw multiple scores in eight contests. He was intercepted 14 times across 10 weeks.

This is an easier matchup on paper for Mahomes, especially with several Miami defensive backs banged up. Miami’s defense allowed opposing quarterbacks to score 17 fantasy points per week, while Kansas City’s defense allowed 14 fantasy points.

The teams met in Germany earlier this season. Mahomes had 185 passing yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions, while adding 24 rushing yards on six attempts. Tagovailoa went for 193 passing yards, one touchdown and no interceptions, while rushing twice for 7 yards.

Verdict: Miami’s defense is really battered, which gives Mahomes the easy advantage this week - I’d definitely start Mahomes. I’m not against starting Tagovailoa, but I’m not super confident in him because I think Miami might really emphasize the run game.

Running Back Options

Speaking of the run game, each team has talented backs to turn to in the cold and miserable weather. Miami could need to lean on De’Von Achane if Raheem Mostert - who is questionable - cannot play.

Mostert and Achane were a heck of a 1-2 punch this season, but unfortunately injuries wiped out several games for Achane, and Mostert missed a couple contests at the end of the year.

Mostert has a whopping 21 total touchdowns and nearly 1,200 total yards of offense. Achane is the far more explosive back - with a 7.8-yard rushing average - and has scored 11 total touchdowns and gone for nearly 1,000 total yards.

Isaiah Pacheco will be the workhorse for Kansas City, while Clyde Edwards-Helaire backs him up.

Pacheco has also dealt with a few injuries of his own, but still went for nearly 1,000 total yards and nine total touchdowns this season. Edwards-Helaire has over 400 total yards and two scores this season.

Both matchups are below-average ones for the running backs. Kansas City’s defense allowed 19 fantasy points to opposing backs this season, while Miami’s defense surrendered 19 points as well.

In the first meeting, Mostert went for 85 total yards and a touchdown on just 12 touches - Achane did not play. Pacheco tallied 66 total yards on 16 touches. Edwards-Helaire didn’t play.

Verdict: In a tough weather game, I’d like to think the backs will be a touch more involved, maybe not just in the run game, but in the short passing game. With Mostert and Achane likely splitting the workload, that means Pacheco is my favorite back in this contest, and I’d be fine with starting him. I’d also be OK starting Mostert (if he plays) and Achane (definitely starting him if Mostert is out). Edwards-Helaire I’d avoid unless Pacheco gets tagged with a late injury before the game.

Wide Receiver Options

Several receivers from this game are banged up going into the weekend. Miami’s Tyreek Hill will play, but Jaylen Waddle is questionable with his ankle injury. Ka’Darius Toney and Justyn Ross are both questionable for Kansas City, although they aren’t nearly as important to their team’s offense as Waddle.

Hill was an absolute monster this season, going for 1,799 yards and 13 touchdowns. Waddle added 1,014 yards and four scores. 

KC didn’t have a 1,000-yard receiver, with Rashee Rice leading the wideouts with 938 yards and seven scores.

KC could turn to Justin Watson and Marquez Valdes-Scantling if Toney or Ross are out. None of the wideouts outside Rice are great fantasy options, even though they are all capable of putting together solid point totals with Mahomes throwing them the ball.

Cedrick Wilson and Braxton Berrios are probably the two most likely wide receivers to replace Waddle if he can’t play. Neither would be great options, however.

The Chiefs’ defense only allows opposing receivers to score 27 fantasy points per week, while the Dolphins’ defense allows 35 fantasy points (but that was with several of the players that are questionable this week).

When the teams met earlier this season, Hill went for 62 yards on eight catches and 10 targets. Waddle had 42 yards while catching half of his six targets. Wilson had a 31-yard touchdown catch across five targets.

None of the KC receivers stood out, but Rice did score and finish with 17 yards on his two catches and targets. 

Verdict: Injuries make picking these receivers much more challenging than it should be. Hill is a pretty obvious top choice, although Rice could outperform him - I feel much more confident in Hill though. After those two, Waddle is the next best option, but I wouldn’t want to play him coming off the injury. That means I also wouldn’t start any other receiver in this game, but here’s the order I’d take them in: Wilson, Watson, Valdes-Scantling, Berrios, Toney, Ross.

Tight End Options

Travis Kelce is the clear No. 1 tight end option in this game. Miami will counter with Durham Smythe.

Kelce went for 984 yards and five touchdowns this season, and that’s considered a pretty down season by his standards. 

Noah Gray is another option I should mention given the lack of wide receiver options. He had 305 yards and two scores this season.

Smythe had 366 yards but no scores this season. He did have at least three targets over the past four games.

It’s a pretty favorable matchup for Kelce and Gray, while being a below-average clash for Smythe.

Kelce had 14 yards on three grabs and four targets in the first matchup, while Gray led the team with 34 yards on three catches and targets. Smythe finished with 17 yards on three catches and targets.

Verdict: Kelce is the definite No. 1 option in this game, and while I’d be fine starting him, I don’t feel really great about it - he could go off for 150 yards and a couple of scores, or be held under 50 yards on less than five grabs. I’d take Smythe slightly over Gray, although I wouldn’t want to start either guy.

Other Thoughts

The kicking edge goes to Kansas City, although both team’s kickers have been solid this season.

KC’s Harrison Butker was 33-of-35 on field goals this season and was perfect on his 38 extra point attempts. Miami’s Jason Sanders was 24-of-28 on field goals and 58-of-59 on his extra points.

I’d be fine starting either guy, but again would give Butker the edge. I’d definitely try to start another kicker if I could given the bad weather conditions.

I think this game could go down as an all-time classic, with the weather providing incredible scenes. I have Kansas City prevailing 27-24. 

I’d try to stay away from both defenses given the offensive firepower on each side. I like Kansas City’s defense a touch better because they are simply healthier.