Divisional Round Tight End Start/Sit: George Kittle, Travis Kelce, Dalton Kincaid, Sam LaPorta and More

Tight end can feel like a throw-away position sometimes, filled with the cheapest DFS option or last pick up from the free agent scrap. It’s great to have prime Gronk, but those players just don’t come along often.

While every fantasy team usually has at least one high-level running back and wide receiver, tight end is treated like kicker, filled after checking the weather report. The playoff slate cuts down on fantasy choices; only 10 or so real options exist.

Let’s look at each starter this week and who is set up with the best fantasy outlook. I’ll focus on one player for most teams but mention second guys when applicable. The players are listed in the order I have them ranked, and the full list can be found at the bottom.

Defensive rankings against positions are from FantasySP, and fantasy totals and rankings are from Fantasy Pros.

 

Start

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers

Green Bay was a bottom-10 fantasy defense against tight ends during the season. Jake Ferguson caught 10 passes for 93 yards and three touchdowns in the Wild Card Game last week against the Packers. That’s enough to sell me on the matchup.

A slow start to the season had me down on Kittle as an “inconsistent performer.” He shed that pretty quickly, finishing the season over 1,000 yards (the only tight end to do so) and as a top-five fantasy TE.

There isn’t a good reason to put anyone else on top of the rankings this week; it will cost you in DFS, but Kittle has the clearest path to big production.

 

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

Kelce is down from his all-world level of the previous few years. He’s still one of the best tight ends, but he’s not in his own universe. Kelce’s usual high DFS cost makes him a low-value play most weeks, and this is no different.

The Bills were one of the best teams in the league against tight ends. That makes it all the more curious that Pat Freiermuth, who was ignored most of the season, had his second-best performance with five receptions for 76 yards last week. Pittsburgh was down the whole game and had to throw to catch up, so I’m willing to chalk it up to randomness.

With Kelce no longer super-human and Buffalo stellar throughout the season, I see Kelce closer to the middle than a dominant option. He’s still going to get his catches and has a chance at a touchdown, but he will not live up to the highest expectations.

 

Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens

Houston allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends this season. David Njoku had seven catches for 93 yards last week against the Texans. Sometimes, the analysis is too easy.

Mark Andrews is the big tight end in Baltimore, but Likely has stepped in admirably over the past few months after the star was injured. He was a top-10 tight end in four of the last five weeks of the season, only faltering against the tough San Francisco defense.

With a great matchup and an obvious path to production, Likely has a good chance to finish among the top half of tight ends. I want to put him above Kelce but can’t quite get there; I much prefer Likely in DFS, though.

 

Tough Call

Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions

I’m a little torn on LaPorta. This is a great matchup, as Tampa Bay gave up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends on the season. Given his exploits during his rookie season (namely, top-five at his position in receptions and yards and leading all TEs in touchdowns and fantasy points), this should be a no-brainer.

An injury suffered in Week 18 slowed him down, though, and forced him to wear a big knee brace in the Wild Card Game. LaPorta looked limited and only caught three passes for 12 yards (one was a touchdown). It was underwhelming compared to his body of work.

LaPorta played 80% of the team’s snaps last week, a number he topped 12 times during the season. It wasn’t a huge drop, but he was held back from his usual workload, especially considering he played at least 95% of the snaps each game in Weeks 15-17.

He will be on the field, so he has to be considered, but I’m scared of a dud. It’s enough for me to drop him a level when LaPorta would usually be up with Kittle.

 

Sit

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills

Kincaid led the Bills with 59 receiving yards last week and scored a touchdown. Fellow tight end Dawson Knox also caught a touchdown on his one reception in the game. Knox’s presence affects Kincaid’s usage, though the latter plays more snaps (37 to 28 in the Wild Card Game).

The Chiefs are one of the best defenses in the league, and that extends to their work against tight ends. They were a top-10 unit against the position. Kincaid has done admirable work as a rookie, finishing as a top-10 TE seven weeks in PPR (five in standard). This isn't the right matchup, though, and he's likely to have a quiet game.

Kincaid is a middling option who doesn’t offer much upside; I’m benching him this week.

 

Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans

Schultz and his fellow tight end Brevin Jordan each caught one pass against the Browns last week. Schultz’s went for a 37-yard touchdown and Jordan’s a 76-yard touchdown. Cleveland was one of the best teams at defending tight ends during the season, and these were outlier plays with no sustained production.

Things don’t get any easier, as Baltimore is also a top-10 team against TEs. They have shut down the position most of the season. When these teams played in Week 1, Schultz had two catches for four yards.

C.J. Stroud has a full season under his belt now, and it’s reasonable to expect him to handle Baltimore’s brutal defense better, but this isn’t the time to roll the dice with the inconsistent Schultz.

 

Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Otton often gets lost in the shuffle for the Bucs, but he had a big Wild Card Game, leading his team with eight receptions and 89 yards. He dropped a potential touchdown and two other passes, but the final stat line was positive.

Last week’s opponent, Philadelphia, was a bottom-10 team defending tight ends; Detroit is a league-average team against the position. Given Otton’s low usage throughout the season, I’m not betting on a repeat performance.

 

Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers

Both rookie tight ends have shown flashes, but they have been far too inconsistent to trust in fantasy. Musgrave had 52 yards and a touchdown last week against the tough Cowboys; Kraft had two catches for 15 yards. I can’t trust either against the 49ers, especially as they take away from each other’s value.

 

Divisional Round Tight End Rankings

1. George Kittle

2. Travis Kelce

3. Isaiah Likely

4. Sam LaPorta

5. Dalton Kincaid

6. Dalton Schultz

7. Cade Otton

8. Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft