Chiefs, Bills Fantasy Football Start/Sit Decisions: Should You Start Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Isiah Pacheco, Stefon Diggs, Travis Kelce and More?

The NFL’s Divisional Round ends with the best matchup of the week.

It’s time to dive into the AFC game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills and determine what guys you should be starting in playoff fantasy leagues or DFS. We already discussed the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens game, the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers game and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions game, so be sure to check those articles out too.

Quarterback Options

For as fun as the other quarterback matchups are in the Divisional Round, it doesn’t get better than Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen squaring off.

Mahomes has had a down season by his lofty standards, but still led his team to a division title. Last week, he completed 23 of his 41 passes for 262 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions against the Miami Dolphins. He added 41 rushing yards on two attempts.

Allen was one of the best fantasy quarterbacks all season because of his running ability. He was 21-of-30 last week, throwing for 203 yards, three touchdowns and no picks. Allen also rushed for 74 yards and a touchdown on eight attempts.

These teams met back in mid-December, with Buffalo winning 20-17 in Kansas City. Allen was 23-of-42 for 233 yards, one touchdown and one interception, while rushing for 32 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts. Mahomes tallied 271 passing yards, one touchdown and one interception on 25-of-43 passing, while rushing once for 8 yards.

Both of these defenses do a nice job of slowing opposing quarterbacks. The Chiefs’ defense allowed just 14 fantasy points per week, while the Bills’ defense was at 14 points as well.

Verdict: I see the Chiefs winning this contest 27-24, but I’m still taking Allen between the two quarterbacks. His turnovers scare me, but he should make up for those with passing touchdowns and some added rushing stats. Both guys are fine to start and should finish in the top half of the remaining eight quarterbacks this week.

Running Back Options

Each team will utilize one workhorse back this week. Kansas City has Isiah Pacheco, while Buffalo rolls with James Cook.

Pacheco tallied 88 total yards and a touchdown on 25 touches last week. He’s over 1,200 total yards and has 10 total touchdowns for the season.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire will back Pacheco up, but likely wont see near the eight touches he got last week because it’ll be a much tighter game. CEH also fumbled last week, so avoid him this week.

Cook totaled 84 total yards on 22 touches in last week’s win. He has over 1,500 total yards and has scored six times this season.

Ty Johnson got eight touches a week ago, but I wouldn’t expect nearly as many this week. Cook and Allen should attempt just about every run in this contest.

Pacheco didn’t play in the first meeting between the teams, so CEH and Jerick McKinnon led the KC backfield. They combined for 105 total yards and a touchdown, and all that production should be going to Pacheco this week.

Cook finished with 141 total yards and one touchdown on 15 touches. He lost 11 touches to Johnson and Latavius Murray that week.

On paper, this is a tougher matchup for Cook, as the Chiefs’ defense allowed just 19 fantasy points per week to opposing backs. The Bills’ defense was average, allowing 21 points per game.

Verdict: Both Pacheco and Cook look like good starting options after last week’s big touch totals. I’m good with starting either guy, but believe Pacheco will make more big plays and finish as the better fantasy back this week.

Wide Receiver Options

For as good as the quarterbacks are, they don’t have many reliable weapons to throw to at wide receiver.

We already know Gabe Davis won’t play for the Bills, so that leaves Stefon Diggs and Khalil Shakir to lead the way. Diggs leads the team in most receiving statistics, but faded quite a bit as the season went along.

Last week, Diggs had 52 receiving yards on seven catches and nine targets. Shakir scored and had 31 yards on three catches and targets.

Rashee Rice is the top option for the Chiefs. He leads the team with eight touchdowns.

Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Justyn Ross are all on the injury report for KC. Rice is too, but he and have been full practice participants all week, while Moore, Toney and Ross have been limited.

Rice had 130 yards and a score on eight grabs and 12 targets last week. No other receiver had over 25 yards, so you wouldn’t want to start anyone else if you can help it.

In the first battle between the teams, Rice had 72 yards and a score on seven catches and 10 targets. No other receiver had over 25 yards.

Diggs had 24 yards on four grabs and 11 targets for Buffalo. Shakir only had 12 yards on one catch and target. Cook led the team with 83 receiving yards that game.

Both of these defenses excelled in slowing opposing receivers. KC’s defense allowed just 28 fantasy points per week, while Buffalo allowed 30.

Verdict: Diggs is the most talented receiver in this contest, but I like Rice the best in the game. Those two are the only ones I’d be fairly confident in starting. After that, Shakir is a toss up, but I’m leaning no on him. Avoid any other KC or Buffalo wideouts this week.

Tight End Options

At tight end, you have Travis Kelce for the Chiefs and Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox for the Bills.

Kelce went for 71 yards on seven grabs and 10 targets a week ago. He had a down regular season and still has over 1,000 yards and five scores for the entire season. 

Noah Gray could also factor in, but you shouldn’t be starting him this week.

Kincaid hauled in half of his six targets for 59 yards and a touchdown last week, while Knox had a 9-yard touchdown grab across his two targets. Kincaid emerged as the team’s top tight end this season with Knox out several games.

In the regular season meeting, Kelce recorded 83 yards on six catches and 10 targets. Kincaid caught 5-of-8 targets, but for only 21 yards. Knox had 36 yards on three catches and targets.

Both defenses allowed opposing tight ends to score 10 fantasy points per game this season.

Verdict: Kelce showed last week that he’s still one of Mahomes’ favorite targets, and I’m expecting him to deliver again this week, so I’m good with starting him. Kincaid and Knox are both capable of big games, but I’m leaning away from starting both guys this week - I’d take Kincaid if I was forced to choose between the two.

Other Thoughts

While I don’t expect a shootout, I do expect a fair amount of points to be scored. Both defenses are worthy of starting spots. They have pretty safe floors, but not as high of ceilings as some of the other defenses this week.

I’m taking the Chiefs’ defense over the Bills because of Allen’s turnover woes.

Both teams have good kickers, but I’d say the Chiefs have the advantage given the numbers for each guy this season.

Chiefs’ Harrison Butker is 33-of-35 on field goals and 38-of-38 on extra points. Bills’ Tyler Bass went 24-of-29 on field goals and 49-of-50 on extra points. I’d take Butker between the two.