Divisional Round FantasySP Fantasy Football Expert Tips

With only three NFL weeks left, we are running out of time for fantasy playoffs, DFS, and betting; things are looking dark, my friends. That won’t stop us from looking at everything that is happening, though, and that means four matchups to determine the Conference Championship opponents.

The experts at FantasySP are here again to help guide you through the tough decisions. Brant Tedeschi, Mark Morales-Smith, Morgan Rode, and Ted Chmyz joined yours truly, Daniel Hepner, to answer five big questions in preparation for the Divisional Round.

 

Can the Texans find more offensive magic in another tough matchup with the Ravens? Who are you starting and sitting for Houston?

Ted: Questions like this are tougher in the playoffs, but I think you have to "start" (whatever that means in this context) C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins and Devin Singletary. Outside of them, I don't have much interest in the rest of the Texans' offense. Dalton Schultz is a solid option if you're forced to start a tight end, but otherwise more of a fringe play. That's about it.

Mark: I think the magic runs out for the Texans this week. The Ravens’ D is too good and fully rested. Maybe they would have a chance with Tank Dell and Noah Brown, but it's just too tall of a task. I’m all out on the Texans’ offense this week.

Brant: Wow, this will be such a test for Stroud: how can you not be excited heading into this game? The big three on the Texans, Stroud, Singletary and Collins, should be starting. They will find it pretty much impossible to replicate last week’s 45 points, but Nico should find the end zone once more. 

Morgan: I think the Texans will move the ball and score a decent amount, but I don't think there will be any crazy fantasy outings from anyone. You could start Stroud and Collins, but I'd try to avoid anyone else.

Daniel: Like Mark, I see a team-wide struggle for the Texans. The story has been great, but Baltimore is a different beast. They have the best defense in the league, and I’m skipping every Houston player this week.

 

There are a lot of skill-player fantasy options in the Green Bay vs San Francisco game. Who is going to stand out for either or both teams?

Brant: This is a game where we know what to expect from the 49ers but will be watching to see if the Packers can hang with them. Jordan Love is Green Bay’s chance to remain competitive. Christian McCaffrey should stand out for the 49ers. 

Mark: The only player I would target on Green Bay is Aaron Jones, with AJ Dillon likely out again. On San Fran, CMC is going to be great as always. I also really like George Kittle to be the guy this week if I'm only picking one of their three pass catchers.

Morgan: McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and Kittle are all guys that can start. I like what Jones has done of late for the Packers, but I'm worried Green Bay could abandon the run if they get behind early. Jayden Reed, Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks are the receivers I like the most, but Tucker Kraft, Luke Musgrave and Bo Melton could produce. I don't feel great starting any of the Packers' RB/WR/TE because we don't know who will lead the way.

Ted: Brock Purdy and McCaffrey, as well as their counterparts Love and Jones, will see plenty of action. I prefer every key member of the 49ers' passing attack (Kittle, Aiyuk and Samuel) over their Green Bay equivalents. The 49ers' offense is very condensed, with those three and CMC commanding nearly 100% of touches. Meanwhile, seven pass catchers in Green Bays' passing attack had route participation rates between 76% (Romeo Doubs) and 38% (Melton) in the win last week. At home and facing a weaker defense, the 49ers' weapons have higher ceilings and floors thanks to their concentrated volume. 

 

Which quarterback will have the better fantasy game in a matchup of weak pass defenses: Jared Goff or Baker Mayfield?

Mark: Jared Goff. He's great at home, and I have more faith in the Lions’ D than the Bucs’. 

Morgan: I'll say Goff. He has the 1-2 punch in the backfield (Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery), but I still like his chances of outscoring Mayfield this week. It all comes down to who takes care of the ball.

Ted: Goff. When in doubt, I trust Vegas, and they have him projected for the most passing yards of the week, with lines between 272.5 and 280.5. Mayfield, meanwhile, is listed around 250-255 passing yards and right about even odds to throw for multiple TDs. 

Brant: Mayfield will have a better fantasy game but not without some wild plays and close calls. Goff is the more conservative quarterback of the two.

Daniel: I love Mayfield against Detroit’s leaky pass defense. The Lions allowed the third-fewest rush yards per attempt and the third-most pass yards per attempt this season. The Tampa passing game will be forced to throw to keep the Bucs in this one.

 

Which player will have the most rushing yards and who will have the most receiving yards in the Chiefs/Bills matchup?

Morgan: For KC to win, Isiah Pacheco needs to have a good game, so I'll take him as the player with the most rushing yards. Buffalo is the better team, but I like Kansas City's past playoff experience to help them figure out a way to win. Travis Kelce has always come through when the Chiefs needed him, and I'll say he leads all pass catchers in receiving yards.

Ted: For rushing yards, it's a tossup between Pacheco and James Cook (sorry for stating the obvious), and I lean towards the Bills finally getting over the hump and heading to the AFC Championship Game, so I will also lean towards Cook. The obvious answer for receiving is either Rashee Rice or Stefon Diggs, but these two teams rank second and third in allowing the fewest yards to opposing teams' WR1s. With that in mind, I'm going with Kelce. He's not been his usual dominant self, but he could step up as Mahomes' top target once again. I can't back Diggs with how weird his usage has been and how well L'Jarius Sneed has played.

Brant: Josh Allen will have the most rushing yards and Rice the most receiving yards.

Mark: Rice and Pacheco. I'm more confident in Rice because Cook can get his too, but I think KC pulls this one out, so I'm rolling with them.

 

And lastly, who is your pick for Divisional Round MVP?

Ted: Two names stand out: Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. I'm leaning Jackson. He simply is the offense for the Ravens, and he has a great matchup with a Texans defense that had the 10th-worst defensive pass DVOA in the league this season.

Brant: McCaffery. He has been such a beast all year, and with a week off, I look for him to have well over 100 all-purpose yards and multiple scores.

Mark: If CMC rushes for 100 yards and scores two TDs but the 49ers win by 30, is he really the MVP? I'm going with Patrick Mahomes instead. He gets the job done in Buffalo and once again heads to the AFC Championship Game.

Morgan: I think Lamar Jackson will account for all his team's touchdowns this week and have over 300 combined passing and rushing yards. The Ravens' offense loves to run the ball, but I think Jackson will be the one entrusted with getting in the end zone over any of the backs. If he scores four times (like I expect in a 28-23 finish) and avoids turnovers, he should be the top-scoring player this weekend.