Will the Buccaneers Run It Back? A Look at Tampa's Surprise Quarterback Situation

Baker Mayfield earned himself a lot of money these past few weeks. While he is doing just fine, I’m sure, after collecting No. 1 overall pick money for five years, he hasn’t gotten that juicy veteran contract with $40+ million per year guaranteed over a half-decade.

Once Tom Brady retired, it seemed like a reasonable time for Tampa to reset the salary cap, trade veterans and collect draft picks. Some teams don’t do that whole rebuilding thing, though.

Instead of shedding talent, the Bucs resigned cornerback Jamel Dean and linebacker Lavonte David, keeping two key defensive veterans. They refused to grant Devin White’s trade request and kept all the stars, including receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Mayfield was brought in to compete with former second-round pick Kyle Trask for the starting quarterback gig.

Mayfield is a flawed player who will likely never reach the expectations of a top overall pick. He doesn’t have to live up to “No. 1 draft pick,” though; expectations are placed on us by other people, not by ourselves.

What he does need to do is grow as a quarterback, limit turnovers, and execute his team’s gameplan. For all the arguing over Brock Purdy’s “value” in the MVP debate, he did what was asked of him as well as any other player this season. Fitting in and executing is worth millions of dollars in this league.

 

2023 Numbers

Baker had the most attempts, completions, yards and touchdowns of his career while limiting himself to 13 turnovers (10 interceptions, three fumbles lost). That was the second fewest giveaways of his career, after just 12 in 2020.

For a quarterback not constantly lighting the world on fire, a la Josh Allen, taking care of the ball is imperative. Mayfield did that while racking up counting stats at a career-best rate.

He matched up well against his fellow QBs also, finishing in the top 10 in completions, passing yards, passing touchdowns and quarterback fantasy points. It’s hard to ask for much more from anyone not named Mahomes.

His big playoff performances came against two of the worst teams against the pass this season. The Lions allowed the third-most passing yards per attempt, while the Eagles regularly allowed opponents to throw the ball around the field, allowing the third-most yards per game.

Mayfield played well but was fortunate to have two of his best matchups under the bright lights of the playoffs.

 

Fit with Tampa Bay

So much about schemes and what a player is asked to do is unknown to the outside public, even with the benefit of game tape. Scheme fit matters almost as much as skill when looking at a player succeeding or failing with different teams.

Nnamdi Asomugha comes to mind, one of the few stars for the Raiders over a particularly lean period after losing the Super Bowl in 2002. Asomugha was a star cornerback and All-Pro, locking down one side of the field before Darelle Revis ever dreamed of his own island.

Asomugha signed with the Philadelphia “Dream Team” of 2011 only to immediately lose all effectiveness and become a below-average cover corner. He did pass 30 years old during that time, but many pointed to the difference in the defensive scheme he was playing.

While he played mainly press man coverage in Oakland, Asomugha was asked to play softer zones with the Eagles. That change in scheme may have made the difference between a perennial Pro Bowler and an unplayable corner (as did age).

Mayfield was given the “gunslinger” title after 35 interceptions in his first two seasons. He joined the worst team in the league without a lot of talent at wideout, so a bumpy road should have been expected.

Amari Cooper didn’t show up in Cleveland until Mayfield left. Odell Beckham had 1,000 yards in 2019 before missing over half of the next season and doing his OBJ act; he was never the player he was with the Giants. Jarvis Landry had two good seasons with Cleveland before starting his decline.

None of those players is Evans. Even Beckham at his best would be hard-pressed to match the 10-year veteran who has topped 1,000 yards in every season. Evans is one of the best receivers of his generation. He is also the perfect target for a gunslinger.

I watched this season as Mayfield threw into tight windows or just put it up down the field to let his guy fight for it. That doesn’t work when Donovan Peoples-Jones is running the route; Evans makes everything easier.

Great receivers help everyone, but one-on-one specialists are especially important for those quarterbacks who like to air it out. As much as we don’t know exactly how Mayfield fits into what the Bucs want to do, this season showed that the parties can work together and find success.

Tampa Bay is justified in bringing back Mayfield.

 

Possible Contract

But at what cost? Baker on a $50 million dollar per year contract is a non-starter for any team. He won’t get what the top guys do as they continue resetting the market. It’s different at $25-$30 million, still a big number but much more reasonable for an average quarterback; it’s just the price of doing business if you don’t want to hope to find the right guy in the draft without a top pick.

A slightly bigger version of Geno Smith’s contract signed with Seattle last offseason would make sense: Smith is getting around $27 million guaranteed but can be easily cut this offseason with minimal cap ramifications. It was essentially a one-year, $27 million contract with options for the next two seasons.

It acted as a franchise tag of sorts, with long-term upside if the player performs while still giving the team flexibility, something that seems fair to both sides. He may want to hold out for something better as a player with more draft pedigree who is younger than Smith, but Mayfield might be disappointed if he’s waiting for that huge guarantee.

 

Fantasy Football Ramifications

If the Bucs come back with much of the same offense intact, a similar season is likely in store. Mayfield didn’t seem to outplay his abilities to an unsustainable level, so I wouldn’t expect a big backslide. A lot of that hinges on Evans sticking around as well.

Evans helps every quarterback, and his loss would be huge for this offense and Mayfield’s outlook. If he were to leave and the Bucs don’t make a major addition, Baker would fall outside the starting fantasy quarterbacks.

If Mayfield can return to the same situation, however, he should be drafted in the last few rounds of fantasy drafts. He is more of a streaming option than a weekly starter, but Mayfield showed he can put up numbers in the right matchups, including these two playoff games.