Fantasy Football Running Back Outlook for 2024 | Projecting Starters for Each Team and then Ranking Them

The NFL season still has a couple weeks of postseason play to go, but some fans already have their sights set on next season.

I’ve always found it fun to predict how things might look around the league before the offseason really gets going. With that idea in mind, I decided to rank the starting running backs from a fantasy football perspective. I took a look at the quarterbacks last week. Let’s dive in.

Probable Starters

I changed the title of this section from “Locked-In Starters” on the quarterback story to “Probable Starters” for the running backs. This is one of the most fluid positions in the sport, and while fans might think a certain back is a lock to start, NFL organizations might think completely differently. Before we get into things, remember this is how I think things unfold in the season - you are entitled to your own opinion.

James Conner should begin next year as the Arizona Cardinals No. 1 back. Bijan Robinson will power the Atlanta Falcons’ offense, while James Cook is the top option for the Buffalo Bills. I see Chuba Hubbard as the top option for the Carolina Panthers, while Khalil Herbert is the Chicago Bears starter (though I see Roschon Johnson eventually taking over).

Joe Mixon should remain the top option for the Cincinnati Bengals. I like Javonte Williams to win the starting job for the Denver Broncos, and Jahmyr Gibbs to be the No. 1 back for the Detroit Lions (even though David Montgomery will take away plenty of his touches).

Aaron Jones did enough down the stretch to open next season as the Green Bay Packers No. 1 option. Jonathan Taylor can hopefully put his tumultuous season behind him and be the workhorse for the Indianapolis Colts again. Travis Etienne is the clear No. 1 guy for the Jacksonville Jaguars, while Isiah Pacheco will guide the Kansas City Chiefs.

Kyren Williams will remain the workhorse back for the Los Angeles Rams. De'Von Achane will take over the lead role for the Miami Dolphins (and much like in Detroit, he’ll lose touches to Raheem Mostert). Rhamondre Stevenson will regain his No. 1 role for the New England Patriots, as will Alvin Kamara for the New Orleans Saints.

Breece Hall will be the workhorse for the New York Jets. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren will continue to split the workload for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Of course, Christian McCaffrey will power the San Francisco 49ers offense. 

The Unknowns

That leaves 13 teams without a starter by my calculations. While some of these guys I have remaining with their current teams, it’s definitely not a done deal that they start next season.

I like Nick Chubb to return as the Cleveland Browns starter, which would put him in the running for Comeback Player of the Year. I see the Dallas Cowboys moving on from Tony Pollard and starting rookie Trey Benson next season. I like the Houston Texans to make a free agent splash by obtaining Derrick Henry. That leaves the Tennessee Titans’ starting job open, and while I like Tyjae Spears, I think Tennessee replaces Henry with another power back in the draft in Braelon Allen. 

I see Saquon Barkley moving on and landing with the Las Vegas Raiders. Oddly enough, I see the old Las Vegas starter Josh Jacobs going to the New York Giants, so they flip teams.

I like the Washington Commanders and Seattle Seahawks to stick with their top running backs, but I’m simply not sure who starts. I think Brian Robinson has the advantage in Washington, although I think Chris Rodriguez could factor in a lot too. Kenneth Walker should be the starter for Seattle, but Zach Charbonnet could also steal that role away at some point. I also like the Philadelphia Eagles to retain D'Andre Swift - hopefully using him more next season.

We’re down to just four teams without running backs now, and I think the team’s next starter will come from the draft. I see Bucky Irving starting for the new-look Los Angeles Chargers offense. Blake Corum joins a loaded Minnesota Vikings offense, while Jonathon Brooks joins the Baltimore Ravens backfield.

 

2024 Running Back Fantasy Rankings

Now that we’ve decided on starting running backs for every team, it’s time to rank them all.

In the top tier of backs, you have McCaffrey (who really could be in a tier of his own), Hall and Robinson. These guys are absolute studs, especially in PPR leagues. Enough said.

Kyren Williams nearly made the top tier for me, but I expect a bit of regression from his standout season this year. There’s also a little concern with injuries.

Taylor, Gibbs and Etienne are all in the same tier as Kyren Williams for me. These guys could all finish in the top three, but there’s either injury concerns, other backs on their teams to deal with or questions surrounding the player’s offense to knock them to this tier.

Barkley and White are pretty close to that tier as well, but I’d leave them in their own tier. Barkley is a very talented back, but he’s got more injury concerns than most of the backs we already covered. White was great this season, but I expect the team to find another back to complement him, and it will take away a bit of White’s fantasy value.

In the next tier of backs, I have Pacheco, Achane, Kamara, Cook and Walker. These are guys capable of finishing much higher up, but either are on pass-heavy teams, have some injury concerns or other players on their team that will steal away touches. While I have them a ways down my ranking list, these are all great value picks if you can get them after the first few tiers of running backs evaporate.

In my next tier of backs are Henry, Swift, Stevenson, Conner, Mixon, Jacobs, Chubb, Javonte Williams and Jones. These guys should be available in the start to the heart of the middle rounds of fantasy drafts, and each guy offers great value if they fall any further. 

The rest of the backs fall into the last tier. In order, I have; Brooks, Harris/Warren, Benson, Robinson/Rodriguez, Allen, Corum, Herbert, Hubbard and Irving. Like every year in fantasy, there’s bound to be a back, or several, from this tier that star and lead fantasy teams to big things. I just can’t put them any higher right now.

As you probably noticed, there were several NFL starters from this season that I left off starting lists for next season. Devin Singletary, Pollard and Austin Ekeler were the most notable names I left off. I certainly think all three will land with another team (if they don’t unexpectedly retire) but I see them maybe serving as mentors to a rookie instead of starring for a new team. 

There’s rookies like Will Shipley, Jaylen Wright, Audric Estime, Isaiah Davis and MarShawn Lloyd that are all over top RB prospect lists, but I don’t see them starting over any of the guys I listed at this point. Of course, if one lands in the right situation, they could easily be a team’s starter going into next season.

That’s the fun of the offseason, especially when talking about a position like running back. This offseason is sure to be an exciting one with several well-known backs hitting free agency and some talented backs in the draft. We’ll revisit this story once the draft and free agency are wrapped up.

Be sure to check back in the near future for similar stories for wide receivers and tight ends. The FantasySP team also has a special post-Super Bowl fantasy football mock draft set up for reader’s enjoyment.