Best Bets for NFC Championship Game: Brock Purdy, David Montgomery, George Kittle and More

A look at some of the lines in this week's Lions, 49ers matchup and identifying a few prop bets that seem likely to go one way or the other.

Last year’s NFC Championship Game promised to be a collision of heavyweights, with the 49ers and Eagles squaring off in what was sure to be one of the games of the year. Instead, Brock Purdy was injured early, and the Eagles walked into the Super Bowl with barely a whimper from San Francisco.

We hope for a better game, of course, but the matchup is far from the clash of the Titans that last season seemed to present. The 49ers have looked destined to reach the Super Bowl for most of the season. Their only championship-level blemish is the beatdown they suffered at the hands of the Ravens in Week 16.

The Lions are a feel-good story, a team dragged through the mud for decades before finding the right coach and mix of players to create a winner. As a neutral party, Detroit is easy to root for. There are surely still doubters, but beating the 49ers would have to be the final step needed: I don’t think we’ll say, “Yeah, they made the Super Bowl, but they got blown out by the Ravens.”

With these teams set to collide on Sunday, let’s run through the betting lines and some of my favorite prop bets for this game. All lines are from FanDuel and correct as of 1 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on Jan. 25. Check out our FantasySP Player Prop tool to see the best and worst prop bets according to our projections.

 

Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers (-7) – O/U 50.5

There’s one area of the game I keep coming back to here: The Lions gave up the sixth-most pass yards per game and the third-most yards per attempt this season according to Team Rankings. The 49ers gained the fourth-most passing yards per game and the most pass yards per attempt (and it wasn’t even close).

The San Francisco offensive attack is devastating. Detroit was very good against the run and could limit that part of Christian McCaffrey’s game, but even there the 49ers usually find a way to out-class good defenses. I don’t know if Detroit can hold San Fran to a low enough total to give their offense a chance.

The 49ers had the top offensive DVOA during the regular season (again, it wasn’t even close). The Lions were a little above average by defensive DVOA.

I envision a close game through the first half before San Francisco starts to pull away and puts Detroit into pass mode. Without the threat of the run game and play action, the Lions won’t be able to overmatch this defense. I like the 49ers -7, though I’d love it a lot more at -6.5. Either way, I’m staying away from that bet.

I am fairly confident in the over, though. A 27-24 finish would reach the over, and that feels a little low given the most likely outcomes. In the scenario I laid out above, the teams would each have 14 or 17 points in the first half before San Fran goes on a run.

That feels more like a 38-27 game, which would easily beat the over. I feel better about this game going over than the 49ers winning by seven or more points.

 

Brock Purdy OVER/UNDER 2.5 Rush Attempts

The biggest thing here is that kneel-downs count as rush attempts. With San Francisco holding the advantage, it’s likely that any kneels will come from their MVP candidate.

Purdy ran at least three times in eight games this season and was below that number in eight others. Last week against the Packers, he ran six times for 14 yards; only one of those was a kneel-down.

Over the regular season, Detroit faced the second-most rush attempts from quarterbacks. Some of that is surely randomness and a product of the players they were matched up against, but there might be something within their defensive scheme that causes quarterbacks to flush out of the pocket and run the ball more.

Detroit gets pressure on quarterbacks at one of the best rates in the league. Opposing quarterbacks have to deal with defenders on over 25% of their drop backs, and, unless they are getting the ball out of their hands fast, those passers are running for their lives with guys like Aidan Hutchinson bearing down.

San Francisco has a very good offensive line, but pressure will get home, especially from the offense’s right side. This number isn’t asking Purdy to do much, and a QB sneak and a kneel together would almost get him there. I like Purdy’s chances of hitting at least three rush attempts.

 

Brock Purdy OVER/UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdown

I talked about the passing stats above. Teams regularly ripped through the Lions with the pass this season despite getting home to the quarterback.

In the Wild Card Round, Matthew Stafford threw for 367 yards and two touchdowns. Last week, Baker Mayfield had 349 and three touchdowns. The most efficient offense in football is going to be on the other side this Sunday, and I don’t like Detroit’s defensive outlook.

Purdy was one touchdown shy of averaging two passing TDs per game this season. That was against everyone. Now he’s facing a team near the bottom of that spectrum; I see at least a two-touchdown game from the young passer.

 

David Montgomery OVER/UNDER 52.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards

Our prop tool sees Montgomery going over this number as the best prop bet in this game. I’m finding it hard to poke too many holes in that logic.

Two things are likely holding this number down: San Francisco’s defense and the presence of Jahmyr Gibbs.

The 49ers allowed the 10th-least yards per rush on the season. They are a good unit, but not dominant the way some other teams are. They are also in the top 10 in in most targets, receptions and receiving yards allowed to running backs.

Like when talking about the Lions facing more QB rush attempts, maybe this is a product of their defensive system and/or philosophy. Gibbs usually does most of the pass catching out of the backfield, but Montgomery averaged more than one reception per game this season, and in the playoffs, he has gained 11 and 14 yards receiving in his two games.

That doesn’t sound like a lot, but knocking 12 yards off this total means he would only have to top 40 rushing yards to hit the over. Montgomery reached at least 40 yards in 13 of his 14 regular-season games and was over 52.5 rushing yards alone in 12 of those 14.

This number seems low no matter what the circumstances. Montgomery has performed to this level all season, and there’s not a lot of reason to think differently, even if his team gets down in the second half. I agree with the prop tool: This feels like an over.

 

Other Prop Bets I Like

Jameson Williams UNDER 2.5 receptions

George Kittle OVER 60.5 receiving yards

Brock Purdy OVER 20.5 pass completions

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