Best Bets for NFC Champion: Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals Stand Out

NFL Conference Championship weekend is only about 35 weeks away: If you perform the necessary acts soon, you might be having a Super Bowl baby come February. For those without the means, however, we can focus on the impending season and some of the projections coming from major outlets like ESPN and the betting markets in Vegas.

I am going through some of the NFL future bets to identify where I see value. I recently looked at the division champion odds for each division in the AFC and the NFC, so it seemed right to continue onto the listed conference champion odds.

I looked at the AFC yesterday, so let’s move to the NFC and do this the same way, like a game of Guess Who: I’ll use (admittedly arbitrary) criteria to eliminate teams until we get down to my best bets to win the conference. This is all opinion, and you might not agree with some (or most, or any) of my choices, but I tried giving my reasoning in each section.

Lines are from FanDuel and correct as of May 27.

Teams that aren’t good enough

New York Giants +5000

Carolina Panthers +13000

No matter the number, any bet is a bad bet if you don’t actually think you can win. That’s how I feel about both the Giants and Panthers, two teams with weak rosters and seemingly overmatched quarterbacks.

The Giants made a surprise run to the playoffs in 2022 and won a game in the Wild Card Round. They reacted as if they had a playoff roster when in reality they were lucky to get there and beat a Vikings team with the underlying numbers of one of the worst playoff teams ever. Signing Daniel Jones to a big extension put a ceiling on New York’s upside through at least 2024.

Carolina’s path to contention is more clear-cut: Bryce Young makes a huge leap when finally surrounded by NFL-level talent and shows the skill that made him the No. 1 pick last year. There isn’t much star power on the roster, but a new starter or rotation player was brought in at every offensive position other than quarterback (grouping offensive line together).

Neither roster has enough without an enormous leap by their respective quarterback.

Teams relying too much on rookies

Chicago Bears +2200

Minnesota Vikings +3500

Washington Commanders +5500

This is essentially about the first-year passers these teams took in the draft. Even the best rookie quarterbacks often struggle early: C.J. Stroud set a bad precedent for our expectations.

Chicago’s high expectations may be unrealistic. It’s easy to see their improvements on offense and dream of a top-five unit carrying the team. There’s a new offensive coordinator, quarterback, running back and multiple wide receivers coming in, though, who might take time to mesh, especially the young guys. A lot can go wrong here.

The Vikings feel like Chicago-lite: Good-to-great offensive pieces in place but questions around how things will work with new faces. Like the Bears (and Commanders), Minnesota’s upside will likely be dictated by their quarterback. Rookie J.J. McCarthy wasn’t always asked to do a lot in a run-first Michigan offense, but the Vikings have thrown as much as any team in the league recently. Even if they cut back, McCarthy will have to step in as an above-average player.

I wrote in the NFC divisional article linked above that Washington will be looking to follow the same path they did in 2012, when Robert Griffin III was drafted second overall and led the team from last in the division to first in his rookie year. Jayden Daniels has the same dynamic skill set to beat teams through the air and on the ground, and like the others here, his quick ascension toward the top of the league is his team’s best chance at contending.

Teams that lost Hall of Fame talent

Atlanta Falcons +1100

Los Angeles Rams +1400

LA’s story is straightforward: Aaron Donald was one of the best defensive players in the league over the past decade, and his retirement might be the biggest loss any team suffered in the offseason. There is plenty of talent on the Rams, but the top line isn’t the same.

Atlanta’s absent Hall of Famer is Calais Campbell, who is still a free agent. This isn’t really about Campbell’s current talent as much as the idea of what Campbell represents (he will turn 38 before the season starts). It is about the lack of pass rush juice they have, partly because the Falcons chose quarterback Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall rather than adding the draft’s top defensive lineman. 

The Falcons rightly saw their odds jump when they added Kirk Cousins, but there is a lot expected to go right for a team still with clear needs. Cousins has never won anything; he has a 1-3 playoff record as a starter. When he joined Minnesota, Cousins was the supposed savior to take the team over the top. Now joining Atlanta, Cousins is the supposed savior to take the team over the top. This team isn’t good enough to take the conference.

Teams without enough talent to carry their quarterback

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3000

New Orleans Saints +4000

Tampa won the division and a playoff game last season with essentially the same roster; saying they can’t win is wrong. To unfairly question their accomplishments, though, the Bucs played in the worst division in football and faced off in the Wild Card Round against an Eagles team that was on a downward trajectory.

The Saints keep pushing forward attempting to compete rather than resetting and fixing their salary cap issues. Without much room to add players, they are what they are: A decent team with a few Pro Bowl players but also a quarterback with a defined ceiling and a roster with holes. The offensive line is in flux, even after they drafted right tackle Taliese Fuaga, and that unit could sink the offense.

Both Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr are capable quarterbacks, but neither is likely to be the driving force on a winning team. They can make plays to contribute to winning; the rest of each roster doesn’t seem to be good enough to carry their QB to glory, though.

Too short of odds

San Francisco 49ers +250

Kansas City and Baltimore were the two teams in this category in the AFC. No one would be surprised if the 49ers went back to the Super Bowl, but SO many things must go right for a team to win big, and this number doesn’t offer enough value for me.

Too short of odds?

Detroit Lions +600

Dallas Cowboys +650

Philadelphia Eagles +700

Green Bay Packers +850

The Bengals and Bills fell into this area in the AFC, the limbo of being good enough to win it all but having odds just a LITTLE BIT too short to really provide value. Each of the four teams listed here could win the NFC title, and we wouldn’t call it a huge surprise; they are the next four in odds after the 49ers.

Detroit had a 17-point lead at halftime of the NFC Championship Game and got better over the offseason. Their place here isn’t in question, but they have a suddenly imposing division to get through before even reaching the playoffs.

Green Bay is one of the teams chasing the Lions in the North. The youngest team in the league won a playoff game as the seventh seed and looks to be an ascending unit behind Jordan Love, one of the best quarterbacks in the latter half of 2023. This number is way too short for me, though.

The Packers making a playoff run wouldn’t be a surprise, but they’re likely to enter the playoffs as a wild card, which would mean every game would probably be on the road. While they are on the right trajectory, I feel the Packers should be closer to the Bears than the Lions in odds.

The Eagles and Cowboys are a coin-flip proposition to win the division, but one of them (at least) will have to take the wild card route to the Super Bowl. That’s a bad start for a team with short odds, and both franchises also have questions.

Philadelphia floundered at the end of last season and was upset by the Buccaneers in the first round of the playoffs. They made moves in free agency to bring in Saquon Barkley and others to increase their current talent rather than waiting on the potential of recent draft picks. The Eagles also brought in new offensive and defensive coordinators, so there will be plenty of new pieces that will need to find ways to fit together.

Dallas took the opposite approach, mostly eschewing free agency in favor of saving space for their stars: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons are all eligible for extensions. While the Cowboys might have more top-line talent, they don’t seem to have the depth of their division rival.

Best bets

Seattle Seahawks +3000

Arizona Cardinals +4500

Two similar stories here with different routes to possible contention. Both the Seahawks and Cardinals have an uphill battle in their own division against the heavily favored 49ers. That’s a great start toward the explanation as to why these odds are so long.

Assuming they will have to take the wild card route through the playoffs, the best thing either team can hope for is finishing as the fifth seed and facing the worst division champion in the first round of the playoffs. There are also slight odds they could host a playoff game if a No. 6 or 7 seed goes on a run, but that’s unlikely.

The Seahawks have drafted very well the last few years, bringing in a lot of talent at premium positions. Geno Smith has a ceiling as a quarterback, but he also brings a decent floor that keeps the team in many games. With impact players at other positions (including wide receiver), Seattle might have enough to prop up Smith for a playoff run if things bounce the right way.

Arizona is on the other side, holding less overall talent but a better option at quarterback. Kyler Murray missed most of 2023 recovering from a major knee injury; upon his return, he showed some of the old magic that earned him a huge contract extension a few years back.

The Cardinals may have added the best talent in the draft when they took Marvin Harrison Jr. fourth overall. He was a generational wide receiver prospect and could conceivably make an instant connection with Murray, driving the offense to new heights. It’s highly unlikely, as the odds indicate, but there is reason to expect a much-improved offense in 2024.

Arizona will have to settle for second place here, though, as the Seattle Seahawks are my favorite NFC conference champion bet. With a competent quarterback in place, the top talent Seattle has added over multiple seasons will be given a chance to impact winning with their respective high-level skills. Paying out $3000 for a $100 bet, the Seahawks create the best talent/odds match.