NFL MVP Best Bets: Where do Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Kyler Murray and More Stand?

A look at current odds for NFL MVP and which players offer the most value based on their return, situation, and more.

The NFL MVP often has a storyline we can point to as the reason that player was “most valuable.” We argue all the time about what valuable means: How much should stats play a part? Can a guy on a losing team be most valuable if he carries his team from two wins to nine wins but falls short of the postseason? It’s not just a football argument, it’s a sports argument.

No matter how much debate takes place, the voters make the final decision. Some combination of stats, team success, the number of candidates and other factors play into who walks away as MVP. 

Determining who will be in the race at the end of the season can be nearly impossible given injuries and the short season. With only 17 games, even one or two bad performances can sink a player’s chances.

Brock Purdy is a good example from last year: Purdy was neck-and-neck with Lamar Jackson in the MVP race when the two faced off in Week 16. Jackson excelled as Purdy threw four interceptions, and Baltimore won 33-19. No matter what happened over the following two weeks, Purdy’s fate was sealed as an also-ran.

Quarterbacks have won this award in all but three seasons since 2001. Those three were all won by running backs: Shaun Alexander in 2005 when he tied the record for most rushing touchdowns in a season, LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006 when he broke that record and Adrian Peterson in 2012 when he ran for over 2,000 yards.

Because of that, I’m only focusing on quarterbacks here. There will be another article about what it would take for a non-QB to win the award and who could accomplish that feat, but this will focus on the passers, the players who are almost always the most valuable guys on the field.

Let’s run through each projected starting quarterback heading into 2024 and eliminate guys until we get to my best bet. This is all based off my opinion; you will surely disagree with some of my assessments, and trust me, there will be plenty of hypocrisy when talking about different players with similar injury/team/limitation issues.

Listed odds are from FanDuel and correct as of June 23.

Odds are too short

• Patrick Mahomes +500
• Josh Allen +800
• Joe Burrow +1000
• C.J. Stroud +1000
• Jalen Hurts +1400
• Lamar Jackson +1400
• Jordan Love +1400
• Brock Purdy +1600
• Justin Herbert +2000
• Dak Prescott +2000

When it comes down to it, every player is just one hit from having their season end. Tom Brady was a great bet for MVP in 2008 after winning the award the year before, but a poorly timed hit to his knee ended his season in Week 1. No man is fully immune to the injury bug.

With that in mind, any bet I make for an individual award must have a baseline return that provides plenty of value. For this exercise, we’ll call +2000 the line of “not enough return.” The real odds of any single guy making it through a full season healthy and performing at the highest level aren’t good; that eliminates these guys from my list of best bets.

Team isn’t good enough

• Bryce Young +15000
• Drake Maye +30000
• Jarrett Stidham/Bo Nix +30000

MVPs in every sport almost always come from a winning team. While Mike Trout has won awards on losing teams, he is an exception to the rule because of his status among the best players of his time. Guys usually need team success to qualify for the biggest awards.

Each QB listed here has a built-in story to win the award if they go off: Carry a team projected to come in last in their division to a playoff berth while becoming a true franchise passer. It would look something like what Stroud did last season with the Texans, but it would be an even bigger feat because the Panthers, Patriots and Broncos all look much more devoid of talent than Houston was in 2023.

While they have odds that are plenty long, these guys don’t appear to have the surroundings necessary to climb to the top of the league.

Player isn’t good enough

• Baker Mayfield +6000
• Will Levis +10000
• Derek Carr +15000
• Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell +20000

These guys have (arguably) better teams than the previous group, but they lack the individual ceiling to reach MVP heights. They are all on more middling teams than truly bad, meaning their surroundings might not be the biggest obstacle in winning this individual award.

Mayfield revived his career last year with the Bucs and earned himself a big contract in the process. He made a great connection with Mike Evans, who had his 10th 1,000-yard season in 10 tries. Mayfield’s level of play in his career points to a middling quarterback who will help a middling team try to win a middling division.

Speaking of the NFC South, the Saints are in the same position but with a worse roster. Carr played at an MVP level for much of 2016 and helped lead the Raiders to the playoffs, but he suffered a broken leg in Week 16, dooming his team’s chances of making a run. Carr hasn’t reached anything near that ceiling again over any significant stretch, making it look like an aberration.

Speaking of his old team, Las Vegas has two guys in a quarterback battle but not much chance of high-level play. Minshew has been good at times but sits on the line of low-end starter/high-end backup. O’Connell was overwhelmed as a rookie when thrust into action and likely won’t look much better in 2024.

The Titans worked to build an infrastructure for their young passer, but Levis hasn’t shown the ability to raise the play of his teammates, struggling last year after a big first game. Entering his second year, we’ll have to see more from Levis before I consider him for stardom.

Too many injury concerns

• Aaron Rodgers +2500
• Matthew Stafford +2500
• Kirk Cousins +4000
• Anthony Richardson +4000
• Deshaun Watson +7500
• Daniel Jones +15000

Injuries concerns are more prevalent in the NFL than any other sport. With guys aging, returning from injury and/or with past maladies, it’s easy to make a case against them for a bet like this. Everyone here aside from Stafford missed a significant portion of 2024 and ended the season on the IR. That’s enough for me to eliminate them here.

Stafford missed a few games last season and appeared in only nine contests in 2022. He’s been mostly healthy through his career, but he is 36 with recent issues. Before last season, people were questioning if he would consider retirement because of a spinal cord contusion. There’s too much here for me to feel comfortable.

I don’t trust rookies

• Caleb Williams +7500
• Jayden Daniels +20000
• J.J. McCarthy +20000

Even the best players can struggle upon entering the league; we are going to unfairly bury someone this year because of how well Stroud played last season. I won’t say these players aren’t good enough to win the award, since we haven’t seen them play, but as the header notes, I don’t trust rookies.

Williams and Daniels will start from Week 1, but McCarthy is reportedly in a battle with Sam Darnold, who currently sits ahead of the rookie on the depth chart. Darnold at QB can’t be the outcome Minnesota hopes for; even if McCarthy is a backup for just a week or two, though, that could be enough to sink his chances.

Daniels will get a big boost from his running, something that has helped Jackson take home this award twice. Daniels is my favorite value bet from this group and is very close to making the list of players to consider, but I just can’t put that much stake in a rookie before we see him in the league.

Williams is surrounded by talent, both old and new. D.J. Moore is a legitimate star, something that has also been true about Keenan Allen for years. Allen is 32 years old and should be declining; he also had 108 catches, 1,243 yards and seven touchdowns in just 13 games last year. Including ninth overall pick Rome Odunze, the wide receiver group is maybe the best in the league.

Chicago has Day 1 and 2 picks at running back, receiver, tight end and on the offensive line, setting them up for success. Alas, I can’t trust a first-year passer to consistently perform at the level needed to win MVP, so Williams is eliminated along with his rookie brethren.

Odds still too short

• Trevor Lawrence +2500
• Tua Tagovailoa +2500

At this point, we must nitpick. It’s easy to envision either of these QBs taking home the award, as we’ve seen them at a high level and expect them to reach those heights again. The returns on these wagers are nice but still a little too low when really narrowing it down to the best bets.

Tua and the Dolphins have looked like the most explosive offense in the league at times but sometimes struggle to move the ball at all; it has really stuck out in big moments, like last year’s Wild Card game against the Chiefs. A consistent tour-de-force season from Miami would put Tagovailoa in prime position to garner MVP votes.

Lawrence was making his ascent to the elite level. Then he wasn’t. Then his team blew a big start to 2023 and missed the playoffs. Now, people are questioning if Jacksonville should have given Lawrence his big extension this offseason. Big money means the team will have to make cuts elsewhere, so this might be the most talented team Lawrence has for a while.

I wouldn’t be shocked if either of these guys was the NFL’s Most Valuable Player this year; I don’t feel good enough to make a bet on them at their current numbers, though.

Contenders

• Jared Goff +3500
• Geno Smith +10000
• Russell Wilson +15000
• Justin Fields +20000

OK, this is the group that stands out initially as possible best bets. They each have a decent return (or better) and history of high-level play for at least short stretches. That’s important: they have all shown MVP upside, something a lot of players don’t possess.

Now, it would take a lot for any of these guys to win the award. Smith, for example, has a very short track record of high-level play, so I’m not counting on anyone here to break out. That’s why they have longer odds, though, and present a (potentially) more valuable wager.

Speaking of Geno, he has plenty of pieces around him in Seattle, with first- and second-round picks at receiver, running back and on the offensive line. With nearly 8,000 yards, 50 touchdowns and 20 interceptions over the last two years, there is a baseline of successful play that can be built upon.

In the two seasons before Matt Ryan won MVP in 2016, he totaled over 9,000 yards with 49 touchdowns and 30 interceptions. He was more accomplished than Smith is now, but the numbers aren’t much different, including a 7.5 yards-per-attempt that Smith nearly matches. When Ryan won MVP, that number jumped to 9.3, more than a yard higher than any other season in his career.

Despite throwing 70 less passes in 2016 than he did in 2015, Ryan accumulated 350 more yards. A fluke like that is Smith’s best bet, if his trio of receivers (DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba) all play at a high level and Smith’s numbers get inflated while the team overtakes the 49ers in the division.

Goff’s story would be the same: His totals over the previous two seasons are close to 9,000 yards with 7.6 yards per attempt, 59 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. He’s also on a team that should fight for the top seed in the NFC.

Surrounded by as much or more talent than Smith, it’s easy to envision Detroit rolling through the season while Goff leads the league in touchdowns and approaches 5,000 yards. He might suffer the same story as Purdy in terms of his great team getting more credit than Goff individually, but the numbers don’t lie, and if Goff excels on a winning team, he will be in the discussion.

Two Pittsburgh quarterbacks, two longshots for MVP. It makes sense, since we don’t know who will begin the season as the starter, and Wilson is slightly favored because he is currently listed first on the depth chart.

I like the chances of Fields winning better, though. While Wilson likely has the higher floor, Fields almost undoubtedly has the higher ceiling. His MVP season would follow the lead of Jackson in 2019 and/or 2023. His 2019 was more about scoring: Jackson gained over 4,300 total yards and accounted for 43 touchdowns, 36 through the air. He was responsible for 4,500 yards and 29 touchdowns last season while averaging 8 yards per pass attempt.

Fields hasn’t played a full season, which would be necessary to compete for the top individual award. When he appeared in 15 games in 2022, Fields was near 3,400 total yards with 25 combined touchdowns. He would need to take a significant step forward, but there’s reason to think that could happen.

First off, Fields is entering just his fourth season. We place unfair expectations on young players, and though he has underwhelmed based on his status as a top-11 draft pick, Fields is uber-athletic and can do things many humans aren’t capable of. Most important might be his new coach.

While Arthur Smith was head coach of the Falcons, many suggested that his offense would be best with an athletic quarterback like Fields. His offense was successful in Tennessee behind the running game and Ryan Tannehill, who could run himself and move in the play action game.

The best chance of an MVP coming from the Steelers is if Fields wins the starting job from Week 1 and excels in an offense that caters to his athletic skills, much like Jackson at his best.

Best Bet: Kyler Murray

I like the Goff bet, but the odds are a little short. I like the Fields bet, but his chances of staying healthy and dominating all season are low. Murray splits the difference as a successful quarterback with great athletic skills who is paying out close to 50% more than Goff.

Murray has injury concerns of his own and could be disqualified the same as Rodgers, Stafford and that group. A torn ACL cost him the end of 2022 and beginning of 2023; he returned to play eight games last season, showing flashes of his old self.

He will be close to two years removed from the injury occurring by the start of the season and should be near full strength. The Cardinals made two major additions this offseason that should help the team be more successful on offense: right tackle Jonah Williams was signed in free agency, and they drafted receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. fourth overall. Rookies usually take time to reach an above-average level of play, but Harrison was a generational prospect who many think will step in as a true WR1 from day one.

ESPN measured the Cardinals as the sixth-best run blocking team but only 19th in pass blocking last year. Williams isn’t a star, but he should be an upgrade on the right side while second year left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. is likely to improve with another year in the league. With James Conner and third-round pick Trey Benson at running back and a 2022 second rounder at tight end in Trey McBride, there’s a group around Murray that could easily be successful.

If Arizona can beat the 49ers in the NFC West and maybe grab the top seed in the NFC while Murray stands out with both his arm and legs, there is a clear path to the MVP. It’s not likely, and I won’t be making this bet myself, but Murray is my favorite bet for NFL MVP based on value and player performance.

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