Late-Round Quarterback Draft Strategy for 2024 Fantasy Football

When it comes to fantasy football draft strategies, one of the most iconic is undoubtedly “Late-Round Quarterback.” It wasn’t too long ago that one of the biggest edges in all of fantasy football was simply waiting until late in your draft to select your quarterback. 

However, the fantasy community has gotten smarter, and the rise of elite dual-threat quarterbacks has changed the fantasy landscape. Is this still a viable strategy for 2024? Let’s take a look.

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What is the Late-Round Quarterback Draft Strategy?

The late-round quarterback strategy is exactly what it sounds like. Popularized by JJ Zachariason (who hosts an excellent podcast of the same name), this strategy involves not drafting a quarterback in the early rounds of your drafts, instead focusing on running backs and wide receivers (and maybe a tight end), and then selecting one or two high-upside quarterbacks in the back half of the draft.

This strategy was very successful for many years, for two key reasons: 1. The top fantasy quarterbacks historically didn’t outscore the rest of the position by as much as top producers at other positions, and 2. The fantasy community wasn’t great at predicting who those top producers would be from year to year.

These factors made being one of the last managers in your league to select a quarterback a huge edge, as you were able to allocate valuable early-round picks to more important (predictable and varied in scoring) positions without taking any substantial hit to your expected value at the QB position. But that has changed in recent years with…

The Rise Of Rushing Quarterbacks

Elite rushing quarterbacks, especially those who also rack up passing production like the best pocket passers, have completely changed the game when it comes to the late-round QB strategy. Players like Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson break both the traditional assumptions of this strategy.

These players provide a meaningfully higher ceiling than replacement-level QBs (Allen outscored the QB12 by nearly six points per game last season, while Hurts and Jackson maintained a three-point edge) and do so consistently on a year-over-year basis (all three of these guys were drafted as top-four QBs in ADP, then finished as such).  

With elite dual-threat quarterbacks flying off draft boards early and then living up to their high draft prices, the late-round QB strategy isn’t the no-brainer it once was. Rolling out a high-floor, low-ceiling pocket passer you drafted in the last few rounds (think Kirk Cousins) doesn’t feel so good when half of the teams in your league have game-breaking superweapons at the position. But that doesn’t mean this strategy is dead quite yet.

Who Should Use The Late-Round QB Strategy?

While it is no longer the right move in every league, there are still some circumstances in which the late-round QB strategy is worth considering.

One place where the strategy can still shine is in deeper leagues, with 12 or especially 14+ teams. With more teams in a league, a lower percentage of teams have the superweapon dual-threat QBs, putting your late-round QB team at less of a disadvantage.

Additionally, the opportunity cost of selecting an early QB goes up in bigger leagues (it hurts a lot more to wait a round on your RB1 or WR1 when a round is 14 teams instead of 10), making late-round QB more attractive.

On the flip side, if you’re in a 10-team or smaller league, I wouldn’t recommend attempting the late-round QB strategy: In a shallow league, your team will need to be stacked at every position, nearly half the league will have a true unicorn at the QB slot, and you can afford to spend an early-round pick on QB and still build strong RB and WR rooms. 

The other common setting that can increase the effectiveness of the late-round QB strategy is rewarding six points per passing touchdown instead of the traditional four. This gives pocket-passing quarterbacks a bit more of a chance to keep up with dual-threat options — although it’s important not to overstate its impact, as the elite dual-threat QBs are throwing their fair share of touchdowns too. 

Late-Round Quarterback Targets For 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts

If you do want to draft your quarterback late, it’s important to chase upside. Here are my favorite quarterbacks going outside the first six rounds in 12-team leagues according to FantasySP’s ADP Tool:

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (ADP: QB17)

Daniels is easily my favorite late-round QB target this year. Coming off a Heisman-winning season at LSU in which he rushed for 1,134 yards and 10 touchdowns, Daniels has the rushing upside to compete with the names being selected at the top of drafts. Any rookie QB is a risk, but getting elite dual-threat production at the end of your draft could be a league-winning move. 

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (ADP: QB10)

I’m kind of stretching the definition of “Late-Round QB” here with Murray, who is currently being drafted around the 78th overall pick. But in 12-team leagues, selecting Murray as your QB1 still means you were likely the third-to-last manager to take a quarterback, so I’m going to include him. I’ve made the case for Murray in-depth already, but here’s the short of it: He has a track record of producing as a top-five fantasy quarterback and now gets to play with Marvin Harrison Jr.

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (ADP: QB16)

Yes, Herbert has been a huge fantasy disappointment each of the last two years. But he was the QB2 in 2021. Fantasy managers are worried that Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman will implement a run-heavy scheme … but what if they also install more quarterback rushes? Or what if Harbaugh adjusts his scheme to highlight his elite young passer? There’s a lot of upside here for a relatively low price at 112th overall ADP.

Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks (ADP: QB23)

Now we’re really scraping the bottom of the barrel. Unlike the rest of the names I’ve listed, I have no real argument that Geno has a top-five season in his range of outcomes (although he was the QB5 in 2022). But he is criminally underrated as a talent (he has ranked top 12 in PFF Passing Grade in each of the last two seasons), has great weapons around him, and should benefit from having a pass-happy new OC in town. If you’re in a deep league and want to completely punt the QB position, I recommend rolling with Geno.