Recent Running Back Fantasy Football Busts: Najee Harris, Miles Sanders, Alexander Mattison and More can Teach us Lessons

Fantasy draft busts among backs over the past three seasons and what we can learn from the players who floundered.

Running back is the most important position in fantasy football. Others will argue that in such a passing league, wide receivers are imperative to winning. While great receivers can dominate, especially in PPR leagues, there are many more usable fantasy receivers; the dearth of top running backs makes them a rarer commodity.

It’s also the most volatile position, though. Injuries add up quickly, and today’s superstar is tomorrow’s spare change, overtaken by a younger model on a cheaper contract. Guys often fall off a cliff rather than aging gracefully into decline, and that leaves fantasy owners in a bind when they rely on those top backs early in fantasy drafts.

At FantasySP, we have fantasy draft bust information from recent seasons that show the average draft position and final scoring rankings of each player. I went through the last three seasons (here is the information for 2023, 2022 and 2021) to look at how many players “busted” at each position to try to determine if any positions were safer than others and to try to identify any clues that could have warned us about coming declines.

Injuries are a big part of the equation every season. Most fantasy busts end up as such because the players in question miss extended time. I’m more interested in the non-injured, though. Is there a common thread that might hint toward the busts of 2024?

Yesterday, I looked at the busts among the top 20 drafted quarterbacks in each of the past three seasons. Let’s move onto running backs today; I’m looking at the top 40 draftees at the position and making note of every player who finished at least 10 spots lower in final scoring among running backs relative to his draft position.

Rather than focusing on those who were injured, I’m more interested in the guys who simply failed to perform to see if there are lessons or common threads that can point toward players to be leery of in 2024. Every ranking is in PPR format.

2023

• Austin Ekeler: Drafted RB2, finished RB25
• Saquon Barkley: Drafted RB4, finished RB16
• Nick Chubb: Drafted RB5, finished RB85
• Josh Jacobs: Drafted RB8, finished RB23
• Rhamondre Stevenson: Drafted RB9, finished RB33
• Najee Harris: Drafted RB10, finished RB27
• Aaron Jones: Drafted RB14, finished RB41
• Jonathan Taylor: Drafted RB17, finished RB36
• Dameon Pierce: Drafted RB18, finished RB56
• Miles Sanders: Drafted RB19, finished RB52
• J.K. Dobbins: Drafted RB20, finished RB104
• Alexander Mattison: Drafted RB21, finished RB37
• Cam Akers: Drafted RB22, finished RB65
• Dalvin Cook: Drafted RB 24, finished RB40
• Khalil Herbert: Drafted RB33, finished RB44
• Jamaal Williams: Drafted RB36, finished RB62
• Zach Charbonnet: Drafted RB37, finished RB48

Four guys played 10 games or less: Chubb, Taylor, Dobbins and Akers. A number of backs missed multiple games, knocking them down the scoring ranks even though they saw more action:

• Ekeler, Barkley: 14 games played
• Jacobs: 13 games
• Herbert, Stevenson: 12 games
• Jones: 11 games

Five guys stayed mostly healthy and saw their role/production diminished to the point of major disappointment for fantasy owners.

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers

I’ve been down on Harris since after his rookie season because he’s a terribly inefficient back. He’s not necessarily a bad fantasy back, though: Harris has never missed a game, topped 1,000 rushing yards in each of his three seasons, and has scored either seven or eight rushing touchdowns every year.

Fantasy value isn’t real value, but Harris also made a splash in the passing game in his first season something that has deteriorated since that time:

• 2021: 74 receptions, 467 yards, 3 touchdowns
• 2022: 41 receptions, 229 yards, 3 touchdowns
• 2023: 29 receptions, 170 yards, 0 touchdowns

The emergence of Jaylen Warren was a big part of that: 28 receptions for 214 yards in 2022 and 61 receptions for 370 yards in 2023. The reception and yard totals among the backs are similar in each season, it just became dispersed between two players then weighted more toward Warren last year.

Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans

Pierce was the clear lead back in 2022, running for over 900 yards and four touchdowns. Owners drafted him as a top-20 back with thoughts he would reprise his role.

Instead, free agent Devin Singeltary essentially matched Pierce’s 2022 stats while the latter was phased out of regular work. Pierce also dropped from 4.3 to 2.9 yards per carry, running like a below-average back all season.

Miles Sanders, Carolina Panthers

Sanders had a career season with Philadelphia in 2022, staying healthy for the first time since 2019 and averaging nearly 5 yards per carry on his way to 1,269 yards and 11 touchdowns. Carolina signed him that offseason to take over their starting role with rookie quarterback Bryce Young.

It was easy to guess that his stats would decline, but Sanders seemed like a starting back who could play the flex spot some weeks and still be productive at times. Well, the Panthers were a full-fledged dumpster fire, and Sanders lost the starting role while struggling to make any real impact.

He only received double-digit carries three times after Week 4.

Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings

Mattison was stepping into the starting lineup after Dalvin Cook was released by the Vikings, and many thought he could be a good fantasy player on an offense expected to succeed. Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson both missed long stretches with injury, and Mattison was never able to find consistent production.

He had only averaged 3.7 and 3.8 yards per carry in the prior two seasons, so maybe we should have seen it coming when he produced 3.9 in 2023. He also scored no rushing touchdowns, though he did catch three TDs.

Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks

Charbonnet was a rookie last season, joining the team as a second-round pick after they had just selected Kenneth Walker III in the second round the previous year. Many thought he would cut into Walker’s work; instead, Charbonnet worked as a true backup while Walker essentially repeated his rookie season, with nearly 1,200 total yards and nine touchdowns.

Charbonnet was under 700 total yards and only scored once.

2022

• Jonathan Taylor: Drafted RB1, finished RB29
• Najee Harris: Drafted RB5, finished RB15
• D'Andre Swift: Drafted RB9, finished RB28
• Javonte Williams: Drafted RB13, finished RB73
• Cam Akers: Drafted RB18, finished RB40
• J.K. Dobbins: Drafted RB19, finished RB55
• Elijah Mitchell: Drafted RB21, finished RB89
• Breece Hall: Drafted RB22, finished RB39
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Drafted RB25, finished RB45
• Damien Harris: Drafted RB26, finished RB51
• Rashaad Penny: Drafted RB28, finished RB65
• Chase Edmonds: Drafted RB30, finished RB61
• Melvin Gordon: Drafted RB35, finished RB48
• Nyheim Hines: Drafted RB39, finished RB58

Injuries: Taylor, Williams, Dobbins, Mitchell, Hall, Edwards-Helaire, Harris, Penny, Gordon, Hines

A huge portion of this group was taken down by injuries. Swift and Edmonds both suffered maladies but also had other circumstances that led to their disappointments. Edmonds was a middling-at-best player in Arizona before joining a crowded backfield in Miami. After failing to find a role, he was shipped off to Denver and sustained a high ankle sprain.

Swift was a second-round pick in 2020, and we kept waiting for his breakout. Without seemingly much competition, 2022 seemed like his chance. Jamaal Williams decided to have his best season by far, though, keeping Swift in more of a receiving role and holding him under 100 carries in 14 games.

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers

Back to Harris. We talked about his decline above. It made sense to believe in Harris heading into 2022 after he put up a 1,200-yard season with seven touchdowns as a rookie, throwing in the 74-467-3 receiving line. He was a first-round pick, so it’s not like his big season came out of nowhere.

It seems the biggest issue is that Harris just isn’t that good. He’s fine. He can play NFL football. When he’s leading the charge on running back contracts, though, fighting for top-flight pay, it highlights how old-school thinkers and the backs themselves are thinking in a different era of football than those teams who are most successful.

His 3.9, 3.8 and 4.1 yards per carry in his three seasons doesn’t cut it for a guy who runs the ball over 250 times per year.

Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams

Akers was a 2020 second-round pick who had injury issues during his first couple years, most notably carrying the ball only five times in 2021. With a clear path to the starting job in 2022, it looked like Akers’ chance to take over as the lead guy.

Like Harris, he was…fine. His 786 yards and seven touchdowns were decent, but Akers caught just 13 passes for 117 yards, not adding much in the passing game (a trend throughout his career).

Akers had a little buzz going into 2023, but injuries again ended his season early after an underwhelming start.

2021

• Christian McCaffrey: Drafted RB1, finished RB34
• Dalvin Cook: Drafted RB2, finished RB14
• Alvin Kamara: Drafted RB3, finished RB13
• Derrick Henry: Drafted RB4, finished RB15
• Saquon Barkley: Drafted RB9, finished RB32
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Drafted RB14, finished RB39
• Miles Sanders: Drafted RB19, Finished RB40
• Mike Davis: Drafted RB20, finished RB36
• Gus Edwards: Drafted RB22, missed season
• Kareem Hunt: Drafted RB26, finished RB41
• Raheem Mostert: Drafted RB27, missed season
• Trey Sermon: Drafted RB29, finished RB91
• Ronald Jones: Drafted RB32, finished RB57
• AJ Dillon: Drafted RB33, missed season
• Zack Moss: Drafted RB34, finished RB50

Injuries: McCaffrey, Henry, Barkley, Edwards-Helaire, Sanders, Edwards, Hunt, Mostert, Sermon, Dillon

Moss had injuries but also dealt with the emergence of Singeltary, who had his best season. Cook was still over 1,100 yards, and four missed games put him on this list. Same with Kamara: 13 games, 900 rushing yards, 43 receptions, nine total touchdowns.

Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons

It seemed like Davis had the inside track to the starting job in Atlanta in 2021 after mixing injuries and ineffectiveness previously in his career, but Cordarrelle Patterson began his second career as a running back that season, leading the team in carries, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, receiving touchdowns and receptions among backs.

Davis had some OK numbers (500 rushing yards, 44 receptions for 259 yards), but his middling past showed up more than any potential fantasy value through increased volume.

Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jones led the charge during Tampa’s Super Bowl run in 2020 with Tom Brady at the helm, and expectations were that he would resume that role with a similar team the next season. After out-carrying Leonard Fournette 192 to 97 in 2020, Fournette lead the way with 180 carries to Jones’ 101 despite Fournette playing two less games.

Jones averaged 5.1 yards per carry during the championship year and just 4.2 in 2021, so maybe he played himself onto the bench. Fournette went from 3.8 to 4.5; the coaching staff may have seen Fournette improving and Jones declining and decided to make the change.

Lessons for 2024

We can classify the disappointments into five categories (not counting injuries): middling veterans, players in new homes, backups taking over the starting job, rookies and true surprises.

Middling Veterans

This is the case of a guy who hasn’t shown much getting a chance at volume, giving the hope that he can turn it into fantasy production. Davis in 2021 is the best example, and Harris in 2023 also fits the bill after a lackluster 2022, though he’s not as clean of a fit.

The guys who fall into that category in 2024 aren’t in new places (mostly), but they have shown less-than-stellar work on their current teams: Harris again, Ezekiel Elliott back in Dallas after a one-year hiatus in New England and Javonte Williams in Denver. None of the three is being drafted among the top 20 backs, but they are all in the top 40.

Harris is in the same situation as last season. There’s a little intrigue due to new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, who had a run-focused offense in Atlanta, but it’s hard to expect Harris to be a starter every week.

Williams missed most of 2022 with injury. There was hope he would come back last year and show some of his rookie season magic (900 rushing yards), but he instead averaged just 3.6 yards per carry, though 47 receptions is something. He’s now on one of the worst teams in football, a squad unlikely to be running much deep into games.

Elliott returned to the Cowboys when neither party had an answer for 2024. There’s still time to add a veteran, but it looks like Elliott will be handling a lot of carries. He will be very touchdown dependent, as Elliott hasn’t averaged 4.5 yards per carry since 2019.

Players in New Homes

This applies to free agent signings or trade additions who found some level of success with their previous team and are now entering a new situation with unfamiliar teammates and coaches. Sanders in 2023 is our best example from the previous few years and presents an important lesson that I’ll get to soon.

After all the shifting of running backs this offseason, a long list of guys fit this category:

• Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens
• Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals
• Joe Mixon, Houston Texans
• Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans
• Gus Edwards/J.K. Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers
• Devin Singletary, New York Giants
• Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
• D'Andre Swift, Chicago Bears
• Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings
• Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers

That’s 10 teams with a new top guy who was playing for a different franchise last year. A few other rotation backs fit the bill as well (Austin Ekeler and Antonio Gibson are two names). More than just “new player in a new place,” it’s about the situation that each back is leaving and entering.

I said before that Sanders gave us a great lesson in 2023: He went from one of the best running games in the league (Philadelphia) to the worst team in the league (Carolina). It’s not hard to see why his fantasy value fell off a cliff.

Running back value is falling because so many guys can get behind a good offensive line and/or next to a running quarterback and be successful. Sure, some backs make a real difference, either as physical freaks or with value in the passing game, but someone like Pittsburgh’s Harris, for example, is so eminently replaceable that his surroundings mean more than himself.

Swift and Barkley are the two guys affected most by the change of scenery, and it comes back to Philadelphia. Swift had never topped 621 rushing yards with Detroit: He hit 1,049 with Philly last year. Now he's on a Bears team who has high hopes but is unlikely to be in Philadelphia’s league as a run unit.

On the other side, Barkley is now with the Eagles, and while he’s been a star when on the field, Barkley might become the best back in the league on this unit. Of course, health is always an issue when talking about Barkley, but I see him challenging for the RB1 spot if he avoids injuries. (Playing on a team with Super Bowl aspirations rather than the Giants might encourage him to be on the field more, also.)

Henry is the other guy here who seems set up for success. Sharing the backfield with Lamar Jackson can only open more space for the veteran, though Jackson will likely pilfer some touchdowns.

Backups Turning into Starters

Mattison last season fits this spot perfectly, and Akers in 2022 is kind of the same story, though a little different. Mattison hadn’t shown high-level skills, but he was going to start for a good team. Minnesota has loved to throw the ball since coach Kevin O'Connell took over, and Mattison wasn’t able to play at a high level when he did get the ball.

Zamir White of the Raiders is the prime example in 2024, while Cincinnati’s Chase Brown and Tennessee’s Tyjae Spears are both expected to take bigger roles, though those two teams brought in a veteran to likely start.

White was barely used in his first two years before getting the chance to carry the load in the last four games of 2023. He racked up 397 rushing yards and 60 receiving yards during that time, leading some to believe he can be a successful fantasy player this season.

There’s a reason White wasn’t used much in 2022 or 2023, and it wasn’t just the presence of Jacobs: He’s not considered a great back. He was a fourth-round pick of the Josh McDaniels era and took over by default at the end of last season.

The two teams White really starred against, the Broncos and Chiefs, ranked 32nd and 24th, respectively, in yards per rush attempt allowed. White took advantage of a few weak run defenses; I don’t see him as anything more than a flex option to consider on the right weeks.

Rookies

Pretty self-explanatory. Before a player enters the league and gets into games, we don’t know what he will do as a professional. Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs started hot as rookies, but that doesn’t mean this year’s group will excel the same way, especially because those two were top-12 picks.

Jonathon Brooks, Trey Benson, Blake Corum and others are more likely to be middling fantasy options than immediate stars. Those three all have veteran teammates in the backfield as well who will steal carries and maybe keep the starting job most/all of the year.

True Surprises

These are hard to predict. It’s simply backs we expect to perform at the same level they did the previous season, but for whatever reason they fall off in production. Pierce in 2023, Harris in 2022 and Jones in 2021 are all examples.

Jones was more of a modest player for the Bucs, topping out around the flex level with a little RB2 upside. There was no reason he would lose his job to his backup from the previous year, but it happened once the games started.

Pierce and Harris had other backs join their teams and steal either partial work or the starting job. I mentioned Ekeler and Gibson above, and they are two of the backs coming in to potentially take some of the load in Washington and New England.

That means Brian Robinson Jr. and Rhamondre Stevenson won't have the workhorse role they could otherwise occupy. Both of these guys are being drafted as flex/depth players, so there aren’t major implications the way there are at the top.

The teams that added rookies may see their veterans minimized as the season goes on. James Conner, Chuba Hubbard and Kyren Williams would be the guys feeling the effects if the rookies listed in the previous section take on big work early.

Not every back I listed to be wary of is going to struggle. This is more of a reminder of things that can go wrong and hopefully can help you make a few decisions when you are on the fence. If you don’t know what to do, take solace in the fact that no one knows; that’s just football.

Most busts will be players who get injured, and we can't predict that. You can minimize risk by skipping players who are often hurt (I can't again, J.K. Dobbins...I just can't), but luck is going to play a much bigger role than any premonitions you may think you have.

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