Fantasy Football Update: Jahmyr Gibbs, J.J. McCarthy and Marquise Brown Suffer Injuries

Another week is gone, and we are now less than three weeks away from real NFL football. Unfortunately, this was one more week that brought no real news on the fantasy front: Just another bout of injuries and one more Brandon Aiyuk update. Still, even if they’re not particularly exciting, these bits of news have big fantasy implications:

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J.J. McCarthy Out for Season Following Meniscus Surgery

This is the biggest news of the week, and it’s also the saddest. Following an impressive performance in his preseason debut, the Vikings’ first-round pick missed the team’s practice on Monday with “knee soreness.” Three days later, he was officially ruled out for the season following surgery to fully repair his right meniscus.

Sam Darnold, who was already likely to start a few games while McCarthy adjusted to the NFL, is now set to start for the Vikings all season long. Obviously, this has to be viewed as a downgrade for Justin Jefferson and the rest of the Vikings’ offensive weapons.

McCarthy is raw, but he brought more upside than Darnold, who will need to have a Geno Smith-like renaissance to be even a league-average quarterback. As for Darnold himself, he may be able to provide QB2 value in Kevin O’Connell’s quarterback-friendly system. After all, Nick Mullens, Jaren Hall and Joshua Dobbs combined to average 17.8 fantasy points per game in weeks 9-18 of last season.

Darnold is at least as good as all three of those quarterbacks. Darnold’s ADP is still unsettled after this news, but if he lands outside the top 20 or so QBs, he is absolutely worth drafting in 2-QB or Superflex leagues. 

Jordan Addison Carted Off with Ankle Injury

Things went from bad to worse for the Vikings, as the sophomore receiver was carted off the practice field the very same day that his rookie quarterback was ruled out for the season. Luckily, Addison’s injury is reportedly not too serious, as O'Connell said that the receiver avoided a major injury and should not miss any extended time.

However, as I detailed in Monday’s Wide Receiver ADP Report, Addison is not a player I was targeting even before this injury. Secondary weapons are also often more impacted by quarterback changes, so the McCarthy news isn’t good for Addison either. Combine that with a potentially lingering ankle injury, and Addison should move way down draft boards.

Brandon Aiyuk Saga Continues to Continue

At this point, I feel obligated to give weekly updates on the Brandon Aiyuk situation until it is resolved one way or another. The latest reports are that the 49ers do have a deal in place with the Steelers, who in turn have a contract in place with Aiyuk. However, Aiyuk and San Francisco have reportedly grown closer in their own contract negotiations over the last week.

It seems we are finally in the endgame. Either Aiyuk accepts the 49ers’ newest offer and stays in San Francisco, or he rejects it and is off to Pittsburgh. At this point, it seems most likely that he will stay in the Bay, so I would cautiously move George Pickens just a bit back up your rankings. 

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Jahmyr Gibbs Suffers Hamstring Injury

Hearts of fantasy managers everywhere skipped a beat on Monday as it was reported that the electric sophomore running back was being evaluated for a leg injury. This was eventually clarified to be a hamstring injury, which was in turn reported to be thankfully not particularly serious. In fact, Gibbs is expected to be ready for the Lions’ Week 1 matchup against the Rams. 

While this particular bullet was dodged, this injury scare is a good reminder of something important to keep in mind during draft season: contingent upside. If Gibbs had indeed suffered a major injury, David Montgomery would have immediately rocketed into the RB1 conversation. Of course, if Montgomery misses time, Gibbs will compete for RB1 overall.

The same applies to other pairs of running backs that are both projected to see significant work: Think of De'Von Achane/Raheem Mostert, Najee Harris/Jaylen Warren and Tyjae Spears/Tony Pollard. These players, especially the half of each pair going later in drafts, are often undervalued for their league-winning potential if their teammates are injured, especially compared to players with similar median outcomes but no paths to higher upside (think Rachaad White or Zamir White).  

Marquise Brown Set to Miss Start of Season with Shoulder Injury

Brown is the first big-name player (aside from McCarthy) who has already been ruled out for Week 1, as he is set to miss around five weeks with a shoulder injury. Depending on where his ADP lands following this news, I might recommend buying the dip on Hollywood.

Yes, drafting already injured players is asking for trouble, but I’m less worried about a shoulder injury causing re-occurring issues than a leg issue. If you can snag Brown at a discount, you might end up with Patrick Mahomes’ WR1 for the majority of the fantasy season, including the playoffs.  

Looking at the rest of the Chiefs’ weapons, Justin Watson has reportedly been the biggest beneficiary of Brown’s absence in terms of snaps, but he is unlikely to see enough targets to be fantasy-relevant in most leagues. Instead, this news is likely going to push Rashee Rice’s ADP up a few rounds.

Rice now has a clear path to repeat as Kansas City’s WR1, at least for the first few weeks of the season. Rice himself could still miss the start of the season with a suspension in relation to an offseason street-racing incident, but that is reportedly unlikely at this time.

Of course, it depends on where his ADP lands, but don’t buy too much of the hype for Rice as a result of this news. Brown will be back eventually, and a lot of Rice’s rookie-year production was a result of low-ADOT manufactured touches, not the kind of usage that stands up to further competition. Plus, that suspension being delayed could actually end up being a bad thing if it lands later in the season. In general, my advice is to think twice before overreacting to Hollywood’s injury, as it will likely be long-forgotten by the point of the fantasy season that really matters.