Fantasy Football Wide Receiver ADP Report: Joshua Palmer and Deebo Samuel on the Rise

Every single NFL team has officially played “real” football. While each team treats preseason games differently, there are still always things to be learned. Once we factor in the steady stream of news coming out of training camps, this is a hugely volatile time for fantasy football ADPs. Using FantasySP’s ADP Tool, we can see every single player’s ADP trend over the last week. We’ve already looked at running backs and quarterbacks, today let’s look at the biggest movers at the wide receiver position: 

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Fantasy Football Wide Receiver ADP Risers

Joshua Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers (-4.33)

Palmer is easily the biggest riser among the top 70 receivers, having moved up four spots over the last week. There are a few potential reasons for this rise. For one, Palmer sat out the Chargers’ preseason game, further cementing his status as one of the team’s top receivers (notably, Quentin Johnston played a significant amount of snaps — more on him later).

For another, Ladd McConkey, likely Palmer’s top competition to lead the Chargers in targets this year, missed a few days of practice with a lower-body injury. However, McConkey returned to practice last Thursday, and he also sat out the team’s first preseason matchup.

Even though the reasons for Palmer’s rise aren’t particularly compelling, his new ADP is by no means terrible. There is a very real chance the fourth-year receiver does lead this team in targets. He’s never truly broken out at the NFL level but posted a respectable 1.71 yards per route run in 2023.

Especially with Justin Herbert set to the majority of Chargers’ training camp with a foot injury, preventing him from building chemistry with new acquisitions McConkey and D.J. Chark, Palmer has the inside track to the WR1 job in Los Angeles. That’s a bet worth taking even at his risen ADP of WR53.  

Deebo Samuel Sr., San Francisco 49ers (-2.03)

Samuel’s total movement is less than half of Palmer’s, but it’s actually the largest of the week in terms of percentage change. Moving by over two full spots when you already have an ADP among the top 30 overall players is a huge change. The reason for Deebo’s rise is clear: Fantasy managers are starting to believe that Brandon Aiyuk will be traded.

As recently as last Friday, so was I. However, winds seem to be shifting in San Francisco, blowing away the heavy smoke of trade rumors (although Aiyuk’s Instagram comments indicate he still isn’t entirely happy with the 49ers’ brass). 

It’s still a very unclear situation, but it’s again looking likely that Aiyuk eventually suits up for the 49ers. With that in mind, Deebo moving up draft boards is a mistake … or is it? After all, Samuel finished as the half-PPR WR12 (WR9 in points per game) despite missing two games entirely and playing partial snaps in a few more in 2023.

Even with his recent rise, he is still being drafted as just the WR14. That seems like a more than fair price for his production even with Aiyuk in town. Given that there is still a non-zero chance that Aiyuk is moved, which would raise his ceiling even higher, Deebo is a great pick in the early third round. 

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver ADP Fallers

Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers (+5.75)

Things are not looking good for the Chargers’ 2023 first-round pick. As I mentioned above, Johnston played 17 snaps in the team’s preseason opener against the Seahawks. Palmer and McConkey were both kept out entirely, while Chark played just six snaps.

This seems to confirm reports that Johnston has found himself the odd man out in the Chargers’ receiving room — not just off the field in two-WR sets but likely to miss most three-WR snaps as well. Of course, we never know how these things will truly shake out until the season starts.

There’s a chance that the Chargers were just resting their vets (Chark and Palmer) and McConkey was kept out due to the injury he suffered in practice. But coming off a rookie season in which he caught just 38 passes for 431 yards, Johnston is going to have to find provide some good news soon to avoid the dreaded “bust” label. 

With all that said, I’m almost tempted to make a case for Johnston as a fantasy asset. Following his most recent slide, he’s all the way down at WR68 in ADP — it’s not often you find a second-year receiver who was selected in the first round of the NFL Draft available that late, especially one on a relatively empty depth chart. In late-round picks, upside is key, and Johnston, in theory, has it.

But he’s not going quite late enough to ride that train of thought all the way to the station. Yes, the 15th round is mostly dart throws, but players like Demario Douglas, Rashod Bateman and Michael Wilson all have later ADPs and have shown much more promise than QJ thus far in their careers. If Johnston slips another round or two, then the risk becomes worth the potential reward. For now, let someone else take the bait. 

Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings (+1.78)

Addison’s fall is likely connected to recent rumors that he will be suspended in connection with his DUI arrest in July, as well as the fact that he was charged with misdemeanors related to that incident last Monday.

The most interesting aspect of this week’s rumors is that the Vikings reportedly expect Addison’s suspension to come either late in the 2024 season or during the 2025 offseason. If the latter is true, that would be great news for anyone drafting Addison. But the former would be the absolute worst-case scenario — a late-season suspension would mean Addison missing crucial weeks of the fantasy season, potentially even the fantasy playoffs.

The NFL’s decision-making regarding suspensions is completely unpredictable, so there is undeniable risk with drafting Addison. Even putting that aside, the sophomore’s fantasy profile has some red flags heading into 2024. While he did manage solid fantasy production as a rookie, finishing as the WR21 in half PPR, Addison relied heavily on touchdowns to score points.

Nearly a third of his points came from TDs, the fourth-most among top-30 WRs. If we look at yards per route run, which is much more reliable year over year than TD production, Addison ranked a mediocre 55th of 96 qualified receivers in 2023. 

To be fair, the 22-year-old could certainly take a step forward in his second year in the NFL. But his upside will be heavily capped with the Vikings starting either Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy at QB and Justin Jefferson healthy again to command a huge target share. Unless he continues to slide past his newly discounted WR38 price tag, Addison is best avoided in drafts.