Fantasy Football Bold Predictions for the AFC and NFC South: Anthony Richardson, Drake London, Alvin Kamara and More
One bold prediction for each team in the NFL's South divisions related to individual players or team performance.
Bold trades happen less often in football than they do in the MLB and NBA. It’s tougher for a premium football player to join the lineup mid-season than it is in baseball or basketball, so most NFL trades happen in the offseason.
The trades over the past few days have been mostly depth moves. Matthew Judon going from New England to Atlanta has a chance to impact the NFC South race, but I doubt Jahan Dotson is going to be the difference in Philly making the Super Bowl.
We don’t know which moves will be most impactful yet, but fortune often favors the bold, they say, and sometimes that means a bold move to push the roster over the top or fortify a weak position. This week, I’ve been making bold fantasy football predictions for each NFL team; you can find the first two editions below:
Let’s move on to the South divisions, where no clear favorites exist, but there are a few teams expected to be among the worst in the league. We’ll start with last season’s biggest surprise.
AFC South
Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud will finish outside the top 10 fantasy QBs
I’m a little skeptical of C.J. Stroud repeating his dominant 2023 performance. That doesn’t mean he will be a bad player or even fall to average, but a lot went right last year as Houston shot to the top of their division after finishing with the league’s second-worst record the year before.
The Plexiglass Principle is a sports theory that says players and teams who make huge jumps forward or drops in performance generally bounce back toward the middle the following season. Houston was 4-12, 4-13 and 3-13-1 in the three previous seasons to 2023 before their ascension to 10-7 last year. According to the Plexiglass Principle, the Texans are going to regress in 2024.
A lot went right for Houston last season. Stroud threw just five interceptions in 499 pass attempts. The closest comparable players were Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert, who both threw seven interceptions in about 50 less passes than Stroud. Nobody consistently throws interceptions as infrequently as Stroud did in 2023.
Stroud was QB11 last season; even as everything was going right, he was outside the top 10 fantasy players at his position. Stroud is being drafted around QB5 after his team added Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon in trades from Buffalo and Cincinnati, respectively. We’re expecting everything to go right again and the new additions to integrate seamlessly.
Stroud isn’t expected to have the running work to keep a high floor, as he was 20th in rushing yards among QBs. To reach the QB5 level, he will have to increase his passing work substantially.
With a little regression, Stroud will throw more interceptions, and a small bump in passing production will be offset. It’s only his second season, so it’s reasonable to expect Stroud to struggle at times, and that could be enough to keep him out of the fantasy elite.
Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson will be a top-five QB pick in fantasy drafts next year
And the way he accomplishes that is finishing in or near the top five this season. Richardson is being drafted around QB8, so this wouldn’t be a huge surprise, but it would put him in line with Lamar Jackson; that’s high fantasy praise.
Richardson appeared in just four games during his rookie season, attempting more than 12 passes only twice due to multiple injuries. He had shoulder surgery and missed most of the year, but Richardson showed flashes of his style of play during his short time.
Richardson was QB4 in Week 1 and QB2 in Week 4, and he even finished as QB19 in Week 2 when he missed most of the game due to injury. Richardson showed out as a top fantasy quarterback because of his running ability.
If he stays healthy and replicates that performance over the full season, he will officially be The Next Big Thing (sorry Brock Lesnar). Richardson was seen as a guy with immense physical skills who needed some time to develop his passing. That was a pretty accurate description of his short rookie season, so Richardson will likely set his floor with his legs and let his development as a passer dictate his ceiling.
Injuries are a concern, especially as he continues taking hits while running, but the fantasy upside on Richardson is as high as almost any quarterback in the league.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence will be a top-10 fantasy quarterback
Lawrence had close to the same stats in 2022 and 2023, just losing four touchdowns and adding six interceptions. That’s a significant fantasy difference and the reason he went from QB8 to QB13 in those two seasons.
He’s still the player who entered the league as a blue-chip prospect. There were unfair expectations put upon Lawrence when he was drafted, and that has overshadowed the fact that he has been a good quarterback.
There is change on the Jacksonville offense, but most of it should help Lawrence. Gabe Davis signed a sizeable contract in free agency, and while I didn’t like the deal, he is a starting-level receiver who can be part of the solution. Brian Thomas Jr. was drafted in the first round, and the hope is he will be the eventual WR1, so there are pass catchers to help Lawrence succeed.
Right tackle Anton Harrison was a first-round pick last year, and Mitch Morse was a high-profile free agency addition (by interior lineman standards) to solidify the center position. The Jaguars might be more potential than proven success, but there is a group in place that could succeed without much surprise.
With Lawrence being a top-10 QB in 2022 and just a few spots outside that level last year, it’s not super bold to predict him in the top 10. Many are down on Lawrence, though, not seeing his upside, and I view him as a value pick in fantasy drafts.
Tennessee Titans: DeAndre Hopkins will be the best fantasy receiver for the Titans
Tennessee beefed up the supporting cast of young quarterback Will Levis this offseason, bringing in a new starter or rotation player at every offensive position. Several teams made similar improvements around rookie quarterbacks: I think the league saw what happened to Bryce Young last season when he didn’t have NFL-level talent around him and was left without a chance.
Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd were both signed in free agency to improve the receiving corps. Ridley is being drafted about 10 spots higher than Hopkins among receivers. It’s hard to compare the two over a longer time span because Ridley missed most of 2021 and all of 2022 with off-field issues.
They had essentially the same receiving lines last year with Hopkins leading the way in Tennessee and Ridley doing the same in Jacksonville. There’s probably not enough to go around for each receiver to put up a 1,000-yard season again, so owners need to decide who they trust to be the lead guy.
Boyd will be a complementary player who only emerges with one or more injuries; inevitable injuries may end up sorting out the target share as much as the players themselves. When everyone is on the field, though, I still favor Hopkins as the top guy.
Ridley has time on his side, as he’s about two-and-a-half years younger than Hopkins. The missed time also saved wear-and-tear on Ridley’s body. Ridley just isn’t the receiver Hopkins is, though. With multiple fantasy options, the better player is going to win out.
I think we underrate Hopkins. He might be the best I’ve ever seen at catching passes around the sideline and keeping his feet in bounds. While he’s not the player he was in his prime, he still has a lot of the skills that make him a WR1, and I see Hopkins as the better fantasy option, especially being drafted a few rounds later.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: Drake London will be this year’s biggest fantasy disappointment (who doesn’t get injured)
London’s fantasy finishes in his two seasons (according to FantasyPros):
- 2022: Standard 38th, PPR 31st
- 2023: Standard 42nd, PPR 37th
He’s being drafted around the 10th-15th receiver this season. I understand the reasons for optimism: London was the eighth overall pick in 2022, expected to be a top receiver in the league. His targets so far have mostly come from Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke. Kirk Cousins is now the man under center for Atlanta, so London is in much better position to succeed.
I can’t dispute any of that. To make the jump from the 30-40th best receiver to the top 10, though? We’re expecting a lot of improvement from a guy who has topped out at 905 yards and scored just six total touchdowns.
There isn’t a ton of competition for targets, but there are two other skill players expected to get similar bumps from the upgrade at QB. Tight end Kyle Pitts was drafted fourth overall in 2021 and had over 1,000 yards as a rookie. He has had less yards combined over the past two seasons (1,023), feeling the effects of the poor quarterback play.
Bijan Robinson had a very good rookie season (1,350 total yards, eight touchdowns) and is now being drafted as a top-three running back. Robinson’s upside is the top fantasy back; it makes sense to expect him to build on last season and top 1,500 total yards by being dominant both on the ground and catching the ball.
If he does take that step, it will theoretically lessen the chances for players around him, taking a little work from London and Pitts. Even one less target per game will add up; not everyone can make a huge jump in production.
Lastly, Cousins is coming off an Achilles tear that cost him the end of last season. He is presumably healthy, but there’s a chance he loses a step or can’t throw with the same force, which would negatively impact his pass catchers.
Maybe it will all go right, and London will make his ascent into the top echelon of receivers. I see more modest games coming, though, and London possibly falling out of the top 20 receivers again.
Carolina Panthers: Jonathon Brooks will finish outside the top 40 running backs
Brooks entered the NFL recovering from a torn ACL suffered late last season. He was still the first running back drafted (46th overall) and is seen as the future of the Carolina backfield. It just might take a year.
The Panthers were the worst team in the league last season. There isn’t much hope for them to put a winning product on the field this year, though an influx in talent will make the Panthers more competitive. If they struggle as predicted, Carolina has no incentive to push the injured rookie into heavy action.
I see a likely outcome in which Brooks starts the season on the IR (missing at least the first four games) and is eased into the rotation upon his return, touching the ball less than 10 times per game until late in the year. The last month might be Brooks’ first chance to really shine in a featured role, giving a glimpse of what will come next season.
The Panthers have two capable veterans to handle carries both while Brooks is out and when he returns. Neither Chuba Hubbard nor Miles Sanders is a high-ceiling option, acting more as placeholders until the rookie is ready. A full season to ease in and get fully healthy makes the most sense for Brooks and the Panthers.
It’s not a huge risk drafting him, as Brooks is ranked around 30th among backs and won’t cost a lot of draft capital or auction money. His best-case scenario makes Brooks a logical lottery ticket later in fantasy drafts. The most likely outcome, though, is that he shows flashes of greatness while failing to make a real fantasy impact.
New Orleans Saints: Alvin Kamara will finish 10 spots higher in PPR leagues than in standard
Despite missing four games last season, Kamara caught 75 passes, one behind Breece Hall for most among running backs. It was his first year with Derek Carr at quarterback, a player with a reputation for safe throws without pushing it downfield very often.
Carr’s top running back with the Raiders, Josh Jacobs, caught over 50 passes in both 2021 and 2022, Carr’s last two years with the team. That’s a three-year run in which Carr has targeted his backs at a high rate, and there doesn’t seem to be much reason for him to look elsewhere with this year’s team.
Michael Thomas is gone after years of injuries and diminished work. The team didn’t bring in anyone to fight for starting reps, so the Saints have a WR1 in Chris Olave but not much behind him. Sixth-round pick A.T. Perry didn’t make an impact during his rookie year, and Rashid Shaheed is more of a deep threat, maybe not meshing well with Carr’s strengths.
Without high-level pass catching talent at tight end, Kamara is about the safest pair of hands on the roster. Olave will be the top receiver, but Kamara is set to be a major component in the passing game again given his quarterback and the skill players around him.
That makes me like him in standard leagues because touching the ball is the best way to score fantasy points. He’s obviously even more valuable in PPR where each short reception racks up extra points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield will top his numbers from last season
That means over 4,000 yards and around 30 touchdowns. That’s a fantasy player who can start many weeks, worth benching against the best defenses. Mayfield finished as QB10 last season and returns many of the same pieces, maybe with an upgraded offense.
Receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are the most important players for Mayfield. Evans has been over 1,000 yards in every season of his career and tied for the league lead in most receiving touchdowns last year (13, Tyreek Hill). Godwin has hit 1,000 yards in four of the past five seasons, only missing when he played 12 games in 2020.
Tampa Bay had one of the worst offensive lines in the league last season, finishing last in run blocking according to ESPN. More than anything, the team is hoping for improvement from within. Right tackle Luke Goedeke and right guard Cody Mauch were second-round picks in 2022 and 2023, respectively, and hopeful building blocks on the line.
Left tackle Tristan Wirfs just signed a huge extension and is now the highest paid left tackle. Center Graham Barton was the 26th overall pick out of Duke and was considered an immediate starter with Pro Bowl-caliber talent. Tampa has put a lot of resources into the offensive line, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them improve as guys get more reps.
With players around him who can theoretically help him succeed, Mayfield is in position to prove again that he is a starting quarterback, even if he never lives up to the standard of the top overall pick. Mayfield will be a streamer many weeks, including Week 1 against Washington.
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