Fantasy Football Quarterback ADP Report: Sam Darnold, Jayden Daniels, Daniel Jones and Brock Purdy

The NFL season starts in just two weeks! This is peak drafting season, so it’s more important than ever to be locked in on any changes in ADP. With that in mind, today I will be looking at the biggest movers in quarterback ADP over the last week. I’ll break down why each player might be moving and whether they are still a good pick at their new price — should you buy the dip on fallers or join the crowd on risers?

As always, all ADP data is found using FantasySP’s ADP Tool, which automatically tracks each player’s trend over the last seven days.

Fantasy Football Quarterback ADP Risers

Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings (-22.32)

With this move of nearly two rounds, Darnold officially sets the record for the biggest rise of this series so far. With J.J. McCarthy ruled out for the season, Darnold is now essentially guaranteed to start for the Vikings all season long. He may not be done rising, but Darnold is currently heading off the board as one of the final starting quarterbacks in the league, QB30 in ADP. 

At that ADP, Darnold is only relevant in two-QB or Superflex leagues, but he is very relevant in those formats. In fact, assuming he doesn’t rise further, or even if he does, Darnold is undervalued given his new situation. For one, he’s more guaranteed to hold onto his starting job than some of the names above him, notably the duo of Pittsburgh quarterbacks.

For another, Darnold’s situation is one of the best among low-tier pocket passers. He has the best receiver in the league in Justin Jefferson and an elite offensive playcaller in Kevin O’Connell; those two things can go a long way.

In 2023, Nick Mullens, Jaren Hall and Joshua Dobbs combined to average 17.8 fantasy points across the final nine weeks of the season. Darnold easily outperformed every member of that trio in PFF Passing Grade last season, albeit in a small sample. Darnold should be ranked around QB25, ahead of the likes of Bryce Young and Derek Carr, and until he reaches that ADP he is a value pick.

Jayden Daniels, Minnesota Vikings (-3.62)

Daniels’ three-spot movement may seem small compared to Darnold’s meteoric rise, but it is actually significant given his ninth-round ADP. This is also a continuation of a greater trend for this year’s second overall pick. Daniels’ overall ADP has fallen from a peak of 122 to its current 104 in less than a month. He is now being drafted as a QB1 at QB12 overall and is fast approaching Brock Purdy at QB11. 

As with Darnold, Daniels’ rise is more than justified. He sticks out like a sore thumb as the only player with true dual-threat upside in a large tier of pocket passers. Yes, the rookie does have more risks than players like Purdy, Tua Tagovailoa and Jared Goff. But fantasy football leagues are won by chasing high-variance players in the middle and late rounds, and Daniels fits that bill. 

In the worst-case outcome, if Daniels’ passing production is so bad that he can’t manage QB1 numbers, you can simply add one of those high-floor, low-ceiling pocket passers off of waivers. Is there really that much of a difference between Tua Tagovailoa (right next to Daniels in ADP) and Matthew Stafford (whose ADP of QB20 means he will go undrafted in many leagues)? It’s worth taking the risk with Daniels, who has a realistic path to top-six QB production at a bargain bin price.

Fantasy Football Quarterback ADP Fallers

Daniel Jones, New York Giants (+6.61)

Jones barely makes the cut for this article as the QB32 in ADP, but his fall of half a round is still significant. This move is particularly interesting given there’s no obvious reason for Jones to be falling. Perhaps the culprit is Sauce Gardner’s unenthusiastic comments on Jones’ play in the Jets’ and Giants’ joint practice, which made the rounds on social media.

Whatever the reason, Jones just keeps falling. He has fallen over 60 picks in ADP, from inside the top 200 to his current 257 overall ADP. Like Darnold, Jones’ ADP is late enough that he is only relevant in two-QB leagues. And, like Darnold, Jones is undervalued.

Yes, he’s probably not good at football. But Jones was literally a top-10 fantasy quarterback in his last healthy season, finishing as the QB9 overall in 2022. We can’t expect anything near that level of production again, but he still has the same rushing ability that propelled him to that finish. He also still has Brian Daboll, plus a shiny new WR1 in Malik Nabers. Jones should absolutely be going ahead of players like Russell Wilson, Bryce Young and Derek Carr; he is a great value as a QB2 or even QB3 option in two-QB leagues. 

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (+3.08)

Purdy’s ADP is likely another victim of the “What’s going on with Brandon Aiyuk?” drama that has surrounded the 49ers over the last month. At this point, it’s very unclear what will happen with the star receiver, but losing one of his top weapons would undeniably hurt Purdy, so it makes some sense that he is moving down.

Overall, Purdy has actually trended up throughout the draft season, having started well outside the top 100 picks, moved as low as 90 in early August, then fallen back to where he now sits at 103, likely thanks to the Aiyuk news.

But is his current price (QB11, in the early ninth round) a fair reflection of Purdy’s profile? This is a tough question to answer. On the one hand, he seems like a bargain compared to a guy like Jordan Love, who is going two full rounds earlier as the QB9 in ADP. Purdy finished right next to Love in 2023, ranking as the QB6 with 19.2 points per game.

On the other hand, is Purdy really much better than the long list of talented pocket passers right behind him in ADP? He had a historically efficient year last season, with his 7% TD rate nearly a full percentage point ahead of second place (Dak Prescott at 6.1%). If that number regresses, he will struggle to separate from other talented passers in good situations: Guys like Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, Justin Herbert, Matthew Stafford and even Geno Smith, some of whom have much lower ADPs. 

Putting it all together, I think Purdy is just a smidge overvalued. I would certainly take the aforementioned Daniels ahead of him and don’t think he deserves his current placement half a round ahead of Tagovailoa and Goff. But he’s by no means the worst pick as a fringe QB1 and could easily finish the season right about where he is currently being drafted.