Fantasy Football Running Back ADP Report: Braelon Allen and Ray Davis Rise, While Kendre Miller and Rachaad White Fall

Ted takes a look at the biggest movers in fantasy football ADP at the running back position over the last week.

The NFL season officially kicks off a week from today. Many fantasy football leagues have already had their drafts, but many more will draft over the next week. Now is the time when it is most important to be locked into every ADP change. The last thing a fantasy manager wants is to show up to their draft with out-of-date information. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the biggest movers in running back ADP over the last week.

As always, all ADP data is found using FantasySP’s ADP Tool, which automatically tracks each player’s trend over the last seven days. Let’s get started.

Fantasy Football Running Back ADP Risers

Braelon Allen, New York Jets (-3.62)

Allen has risen over 20 spots in just a few weeks, from outside the top 200 to his current 179 overall ADP. It makes sense why: We’ve heard nothing but positive reports about the fourth-round rookie out of Jets camp, and he performed well in preseason as well. He appears to have the RB2 behind Breece Hall locked up, which makes him a very valuable handcuff.

The issue with Allen is that, playing behind an elite three-down back in Hall, he has essentially no standalone value. If you’re looking for an RB who can produce without an injury, he’s not the pick. Even at his RB57 ADP, there are other players nearby like Tyrone Tracy, Alexander Mattison and Justice Hill who are more likely to give you at least a handful of points in any given week.

But if you’re looking for a handcuff, Allen is one of the better picks out there. I wouldn’t include him in the top tier of handcuffs because I’m not sold on the renaissance of the Jets’ offense under Aaron Rodgers. But he’s a solid tier-two handcuff, worth drafting and holding in deep leagues.

Ray Davis, Buffalo Bills (-2.75)

Davis is an interesting case. In June, his ADP hovered in the low 160s, then it shot up as high as 190 in early August. Now, he’s moving slowly back towards his early ADP, currently ranking as the RB54 and 171st overall player. This amount of movement is particularly intriguing because there’s no obvious reason why Davis should be shifting this dramatically in ADP. He did perform well in the preseason, but the fourth-rounder hasn’t exactly made headlines like other members of this rookie class. 

With that said, I actually like Davis as a late-round pick, especially in comparison to someone like Allen (who is currently going just eight picks later in ADP). Where Breece Hall is a bona fide bell cow, we’ve seen the Bills attempt to reduce James Cook’s workload in the past, especially near the goal line.

Davis, who has an 88th percentile BMI compared to Cook’s 10th percentile, could vulture a few goal-line touchdowns, giving him a shot at fringe standalone value. And, of course, he has huge upside if Cook were to miss time. That combination is enough to make him a very solid late-round dart throw. 

Fantasy Football Running Back ADP Fallers

Kendre Miller, New Orleans Saints (+3.37)

This isn’t Miller’s first appearance on this list. The 2022 third-rounder is now down over 50 spots in total ADP since early July. The most recent addition to a long string of bad news for Miller is that he will start the season on the injured reserve list, as he is still dealing with a hamstring injury he suffered on the very first day of training camp. 

Even though he’s fallen over four full rounds in ADP, Miller is still being drafted far too high. At this point, he is undraftable in anything but absurdly deep leagues. Drafting Miller was a bet that the Saints’ coaching staff would turn to the exciting young back instead of the aging star in Alvin Kamara.

Instead, it is becoming more and more clear that Saints head coach Dennis Allen simply hates Miller (or at least hates the fact that he can’t stay healthy). In some ways, being put on IR is the worst of both worlds for Miller. At least if he had been cut, he would have had a shot at a fresh shot with a new team. Instead, he will be able to return in Week 5 at the earliest, at which point there’s a chance the Saints still cut him rather than spend a 53-man roster spot on him.  

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+0.98)

A move of just under a spot may not seem like much, but it’s actually a substantial move given White’s third-round ADP. It is especially interesting because White is an outlier among running backs in his ADP range: The five running backs directly above him and six directly below him have all trended up over the last week. White is bucking positional trends by heading in the wrong direction at this stage of draft season. As for why this is happening, it’s likely White is being pushed downward by general hype around rookie RB Bucky Irving (who has moved up nearly 30 slots over the last month).

After all, White has consistently been one of the league’s least efficient backs, at least on the ground. According to SumerSports, he ranked dead last in success rate among 35 backs with at least 150 carries last season. It wouldn’t be shocking if the Buccaneers decided to, at the very least, split the load a bit more this season after giving White the second-highest RB rush share in the league last year. A very inefficient running back being highly drafted based solely on projected volume just screams “dead zone RB,” and managers seem to be catching on. 

To be fair, White has more receiving ability than a typical dead zone running back, with at least 50 receptions in each of the last two years. That’s not a role that Irving is likely to steal from him. Even still, White does seem overvalued when compared to some of the names going after him (Joe Mixon, Kenneth Walker, Aaron Jones), and I would recommend passing on him unless he falls even further than his lowered ADP. 

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