Brandon Aiyuk Agrees to Contract with 49ers: Fantasy Football Impact
Ted breaks down the fantasy football ramifications of Brandon Aiyuk staying put in San Francisco.
It's finally over. After an offseason full of trade rumors, cryptic Instagram posts, and more trade rumors, Brandon Aiyuk has re-signed with the San Francisco 49ers. Putting an end to this uncertainty has huge fantasy football implications, and draft season is well underway, so let's jump right in.
Brandon Aiyuk
Let's start with the man of the hour. Most fantasy analysts will likely paint this news as a positive for Aiyuk: He gets to stay with Kyle Shanahan in one of the league's best offenses. But I'm less convinced.
The big problem with the situation in San Francisco is volume. Aiyuk literally set the NFL record for most yards per target for a 100-yard receiver in 2023 and still finished as "just" the WR14 in Half-PPR points. This is because, thanks to the presences of Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey, he ranked just 28th in the league with 114 targets. Even while he ranked second in the league in PFF Receiving Grade and third in yards per route run, Aiyuk saw fewer targets than Jakobi Meyers. On another team, he would certainly have been fed more volume, and volume is king in fantasy football.
With that said, expect Aiyuk's ADP to rise following this news. All the drama has pushed him down draft boards, but now he will rise back up to borderline WR1 territory, if not higher. If he breaks into the top 12 receivers, I recommend passing on Aiyuk for a receiver with more guaranteed volume. If he lands as a high-end WR2, it's absolutely worth taking a bet on one of the league's most talented receivers ... but don't be surprised if he starts slow thanks to missing the majority of training camp.
Deebo Samuel
Aiyuk staying is unequivocally a downgrade for Deebo Samuel, and his ADP will likely fall over the next few days. But don't let it fall too far. After all, Samuel finished above Aiyuk in points per game in 2023, ranking as the WR9 overall. Depending on how far he starts to slip, this news may actually present an opportunity to get Samuel, still one of the league's most dynamic playmakers, at a discount. Don't let him fall outside the top 15 receivers in your draft.
George Kittle
Compared to a hypothetical world in which Aiyuk was traded, Kittle is the biggest loser. Of the 49ers' elite weapons, Kittle's blocking ability makes him the most versatile, which also makes him the most vulnerable to being left out of a given week's game plan. While he finished 2023 as the TE5, Kittle also had six weeks (out of 16) in which he ranked outside the top 24 at the position. In a managed league, those duds from a highly drafted player can hurt you. Kittle's insane weekly ceiling and injury-contingent upside still make him a valid top-six tight end, but I don't recommend reaching to grab him and expecting consistent fantasy production.
Brock Purdy
Someone has to win in this deal, and Brock Purdy is that guy. Purdy finished 2023 as the fantasy QB6, thanks largely to his elite supporting cast, and now he has the whole gang back for 2024. Don't go too crazy on drafting Mr. Irrelevant, as he lacks rushing upside and is likely due for some touchdown regression. Still, he should be ranked right next to Jordan Love as a great backend QB1 pick.
Christian McCaffrey
Frankly, Aiyuk's re-signing doesn't really impact McCaffrey. As long as CMC is healthy, the 49ers' offense is going to run through him. He should still be the top pick off the board in all fantasy formats.
Other 49ers: Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall
Unfortunately, this news is essentially a death blow to any hopes that the veteran Jennings or the rookie Pearsall would be able to carve out fantasy-relevant roles. This duo will now be competing to be the fifth target on a team with a very concentrated target tree. Injuries can always open up opportunities, but both are best left on the waiver wire until that happens.
George Pickens
You could make a case that this move impacts plenty of non-49er players, as Aiyuk has been linked to almost half the league this offseason. But the only player whose ADP has been significantly impacted by a potential Aiyuk trade is Pickens. The FantasySP ADP Tool shows that the Steelers' WR1 has fallen by over a full round from his peak price.
Now that Aiyuk is confirmed to be staying put, expect Pickens' ADP to rise back up toward the middle of the fourth round. Unfortunately, while Pickens will see all the volume he can handle on a Steelers offense lacking other WRs, I will be out on him at that price — there are more talented receivers on better offenses available in that range of the draft.
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