Fantasy Football Week 1 QB Start Decision: Jordan Love vs. Kyler Murray vs. Jared Goff and Several Others

Week 1 of the NFL regular season is nearly here, and that means start/sit decisions are the talk of the town.

In this article, I wanted to take a look at any trending decisions involving players in the Thursday (Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens) and Friday (Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles) games. Green Bay’s Jordan Love was part of a couple trending decisions, and by the time I added all the quarterbacks involved in his decisions (and then their trending decisions), it led to a big amount of quarterbacks, so this entire story will focus on that position.

Let’s dive in!

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Quarterback Starting Options

Green Bay’s Love was part of trending decisions with Arizona Cardinals’ Kyler Murray and Detroit Lions Jared Goff. 

By the end of adding the trending decisions Murray and Goff were in, Chicago Bears’ Caleb Williams, Miami Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa, Dallas Cowboys’ Dak Prescott, Cincinnati Bengals’ Joe Burrow, Los Angeles Rams’ Matthew Stafford, Indianapolis Colts’ Anthony Richardson, San Francisco 49ers’ Brock Purdy, Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Baker Mayfield, Washington Commanders’ Jayden Daniels and Jacksonville Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence were also part of the mix.

Love had some ups and downs during his first season as the starting QB in GB, but he ended hot. He completed 64.2% of his passes for 4,159 yards, 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on the season. Love added 247 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 50 carries. In the final nine games, Love had 2,439 yards, 20 touchdowns and just three picks.

He faces the Eagles in week 1. Philly was one of the worst pass defenses in 2023, but added several players in the secondary during the offseason to try to fix the issue. Love could be without receiver Romeo Doubs and running back MarShawn Lloyd, but the Packers’ offense biggest strength is their depth, so he’s got more than enough playmakers to throw to still. Some bigger news is that Philly’s Devin White is out with an ankle injury, which definitely weakens the team’s defense overall.

Murray looked good in his return to the NFL in 2023. In eight games, he had 1,799 passing yards, 10 touchdowns and five interceptions on 65.7% passing. He added 244 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 44 carries.

He faces the Buffalo Bills in week 1. Buffalo was one of the best pass defenses in the league in 2023, but Arizona comes in prepared after the emergence of Trey McBride and drafting of Marvin Harrison Jr. A year removed from his injury, I’d expect Murray to be even more of a dual-threat QB, and to look like the player he was pre-injury.

Goff had a fantastic season in 2023. In 17 games, he threw for 4,575 yards, 30 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He completed 67.3% of his passes.

Goff faces the Rams in week 1. The teams met in the playoffs last season, with Goff throwing for 277 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions. He completed 22 of his 27 passes and has pretty much the exact same group of offensive playmakers around him, while the Rams are without Aaron Donald now.

Williams will be making his NFL regular season debut after being the top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He showed some good things in the preseason and has a stacked offense around him.

Williams will take on the Tennessee Titans. The Titans were a bit below average in slowing the pass a season ago, and because Williams is a bit of a dual-threat option, he’s got a chance for a big first NFL showing. 

Tagovailoa had a solid season in 2023, throwing for 4,624 yards and 29 touchdowns, but also 14 interceptions across 17 games. He completed 69.3% of his passes.

Tagovailoa takes on the Jaguars in week 1. Jacksonville was one of the worst passing defenses in the league in 2023, setting up a potential huge outing for Tua, Tyreek Hill and the other Miami playmakers.

Prescott had a monster 2023 regular season, throwing for 4,516 yards, 36 touchdowns and just nine interceptions. He completed 69.5% of his passes.

He has a tough, tough test in week 1, facing a Cleveland Browns’ defense which allowed the second-fewest passing yards in 2023. Prescott has pretty much the same offense around him, and a weak backfield, so he’s primed for a big passing season.

Burrow played in just 10 games in what was an injury-riddled 2023 season. He completed 66.8% of his passes and threw for 2,309 yards, 15 touchdowns and six picks.

Burrow will face a down New England Patriots team in week 1, but the Pats’ defense was actually pretty good last season. New England was 10th in the league when it came to slowing the pass. Burrow could also be without Ja'Marr Chase this week, which would complicate things even further.

Stafford appeared in 15 games in 2023. He completed just 62.6% of his passes, while throwing for 3,965 yards, 24 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.

He takes on his former team (Detroit) in week 1, which is a favorable matchup based on last year’s numbers. Detroit allowed the fourth-most passing yards in 2023. This sets Stafford up for a massive week 1 showing, especially because the Lions are stout against the run.

Richardson got just four games in during his rookie season, but looked good in those games. He threw for 577 yards, three touchdowns and one interceptions while completing 59.5% of his passes. He added 136 rushing yards and four scores on 25 rushing attempts.

He takes on the Houston Texans in week 1. Richardson was injured during a matchup with Houston last year, but did rush for two scores in that contest before leaving. 

Purdy silenced some doubters in 2023 when he threw for 4,280 yards, 31 touchdowns and 11 interceptions across 16 starts. He completed 69.4% of his passes.

He’s got a tough test in week 1 against the New York Jets. New York allowed the third-fewest passing yards. It’ll be interesting to see if the Niners rely on the ground game, especially since Brandon Aiyuk hasn’t been practicing with the offense all that much until lately.

Mayfield was great in his first season with Tampa Bay. In 17 starts, he completed 64.3% of his passes for 4,044 yards, 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

He takes on the Commanders in week 1. Washington was the worst pass defense in 2023, so Mayfield is certainly an intriguing fantasy option in week 1.

On the other end of the field will be Daniels in his regular season debut. His dual-threat ability is what appeals most to fantasy owners.

The Bucs’ defense was the third-worst against the pass, so it’s a favorable matchup on paper for Daniels. Expect Daniels to pretty much do it all for the Washington offense.

Lawrence took a step back in 2023. In 16 starts, he completed 65.6% of his passes for 4,016 yards, 21 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.

His matchup with the Dolphins in week 1 is a pretty average one. Miami’s defense did allow 27 passing touchdowns last season, which was tied for the seventh-most in the league.

Final Numbers and the Recommended Start

With so many quarterbacks mentioned, I’m not going to run through what the start/sit tool suggests to do for each guy. Instead, let’s look at the week 1 QB fantasy projections and then offer up my rankings of these quarterbacks.

Richardson is the No. 2 fantasy QB in the projections, behind only Josh Allen. Tagovailoa is next at No. 5, with Murray (6) and Burrow (7) right behind him.

Daniels comes in ninth, while Lawrence is 11th. Williams is 13th, Goff 14th, Stafford 16th and Love 17th. Mayfield sits 19th, Prescott is 20th and Purdy is last at 24th. 

I’m usually a fan of the projections, but this week, I don’t agree with them all that much.

I do like Richardson the most, but might be leaning toward him because of his high draft pick status.

Give me Tagovailoa next, followed by Goff and Stafford in a game I believe will be a high-scoring affair.

I like Love more than most this week and want him next. Murray, Burrow and Daniels are all pretty bunched up in my book, with Mayfield just a notch below them.

Williams and Lawrence are also decent options, but I rank them a bit lower because I think their games could get lopsided, diminishing the stats for each QB.

Prescott and Purdy were two of the better fantasy options in this group of QBs last season, but I like them the least for week 1. The matchups are brutal, and I think both guys struggle.