Finding the Top Week 4 Fantasy Football Pickups with Predictive Analytics: Jauan Jennings, Cole Kmet, Bucky Irving

Perhaps the most powerful tool available here at Fantasy SP is Predictive Analytics, courtesy of the Fantasy Assistant. Today, I'm going to be talking about my favorite of those Predictive Analytics: Expected Waiver Interest.

Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) is a measure of how much interest each player will generate on waivers, generated before each week's waivers have been run. The tool provides an EWI rating for each of the week's hottest wavier pickups, as well as a projection of how heavily rostered they will be after waivers are run. This can help you know what players to prioritize with your pickups and how much FAAB you'll need to get your top choices. 

The easiest way to understand the power of EWI is with examples, so let's take a look at this week's leaders in EWI:

Jauan Jennings unsurprisingly leads the way after his absolutely massive Week 3 performance, with the usual mix of breakout performers and streaming defenses the rest of the way. Let’s break down all of this week’s hottest adds, plus some sneaky players who should be hotter than they are.

Top Predicted Week 4 Fantasy Football Adds

Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers (50% EWI)

Coming off a 40-point Week 3, Jennings is unsurprisingly the top waiver pickup of the week. In fact, Jennings is so hot that he somehow has a 50% EWI while already rostered in 52% of leagues: If we do the math, he projects to be 102% rostered after waivers. 

However, as I already broke down in my Week 4 Wide Receiver Waiver Wire column, I’m not convinced that Jennings deserves the hype. He’s a fine pickup, sure, but he’s likely to never again score even half of what he did this week. Looking at his historical performances with Deebo Samuel out, this week is clearly a massive outlier, and Samuel (and George Kittle) will both be back eventually. Feel free to add Jennings, but I might prefer to zig while everyone else zags and take advantage of the hype on him to add some of the players below instead.

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears (34% EWI)

Kmet had a big Week 3, finishing second in tight end scoring with 10 catches for 97 yards and a touchdown. However, there is still reason for concern going forward. For the season, Kmet has just a 47.1% route participation rate. Even in his big Week 3 outing, that number was just 57.9% — he was a huge beneficiary of the fact that Caleb Williams dropped back to pass an absurd 56 times.

Looking forward, in more normal game scripts, Kmet will struggle to provide consistent value running less than 60% of available routes. Given the state of the tight end position, he can be added in deep leagues, but I certainly wouldn’t make him a priority.

Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (27% EWI)

Now, this is a player who should be a priority. Irving was a must-roster after Week 1, when it became clear that he was already a better rusher than Rachaad White. Two weeks later, coming off a week in which he out-carried his veteran teammate for the first time, it’s absurd that Bucky is at just a 27% EWI. 

This EWI projects him to be 82% rostered after waivers run, but he should be rostered in all leagues. Make sure your league isn’t one of the 18%, and don’t be afraid to spend big on Irving in FAAB leagues. The rookie has a real chance to fully take White’s job and be a weekly fantasy play in weeks to come.

Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings (25% EWI)

Three weeks into the fantasy football season, Sam Darnold is the QB4. This is partially an indictment of league-wide QB performance, but the former third-overall pick is legitimately cooking in Minnesota, with over 19 fantasy points per game. If you’re looking for help at the quarterback position, he is absolutely worth adding.

Andy Dalton, Carolina Panthers (24% EWI)

I’m going to use the comparison between Dalton and Darnold to note something important about EWI: Although Dalton’s EWI is just 1% lower than Darnold’s, that does not necessarily mean they have a similar overall level of interest. Coming into this week, Darnold was already rostered in over a third of leagues, while the Red Rifle was available in all but 5%. Pre-waiver rostership percentage is just as important to look at as EWI when determining which players are most likely to be added in your league — in both FAAB and waiver order leagues, managers will usually prioritize players that are already rostered in a significant number of leagues. 

Looking back at Dalton himself, he is a very valid pickup for deeper leagues. The veteran has now posted over 23 fantasy points in both of his starts for the Panthers. It remains to be seen if he can keep up his performance over a longer sample size, but it’s worth rostering him until we find out.

Emanuel Wilson, Green Bay Packers (24% EWI)

Wilson outproduced his teammate Josh Jacobs this week, finishing as a top 15 running back with 50 yards on 12 carries plus 35 yards and a touchdown through the air. Wilson is also trending up thanks to last week's news that rookie MarShawn Lloyd has been placed on the IR with an ankle injury.

In the most likely outcome, Wilson is now the clear handcuff to Jacobs, making him worth rostering in deeper leagues. If we’re being optimistic, Wilson has a chance to carve out standalone value; we know Matt LaFleur loves to use a committee, and performances like Wilson had in Week 3 are sure to earn him more touches.    

Roschon Johnson, Chicago Bears (24% EWI)

However, I would actually prioritize Johnson over Wilson on waivers this week. Admittedly, Johnson is in a worse offense and a more crowded backfield. But he has one key advantage that Wilson doesn’t: The current lead back in his backfield is perhaps the league’s least efficient RB.

If D’Andre Swift keeps averaging less than three yards a carry, the Bears will have to let someone else carry the load eventually. With Travis Homer on IR and Khalil Herbert seemingly stuck in a short-yardage role, Johnson could be that guy. 

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