Fantasy Football Week 5 Start/Sit Decisions: Trey Sermon vs. Brian Robinson, Javonte Williams, Jerome Ford, Cam Akers
Ted breaks down whether to start Trey Sermon over other fantasy football running backs with Jonathan Taylor sidelined.
Heading into Week 5, the FantasySP team has you covered with all your fantasy football start/sit questions! For more individual decision breakdowns, check out this article from Morgan Rode and this one from Mark Morales. However, if you’re looking for answers about Trey Sermon, this is the article for you — let’s get started!
Looking for more help with your toughest fantasy football Start/Sit decisions? Be sure to check out the FantasySP Start/Sit Tool!
Trey Sermon Week 5 Fantasy Outlook
The issue with Sermon this week is that we have no idea what his usage will look like with Jonathan Taylor sidelined. Sometimes, when a starting running back is injured, a backup running back will actually see better usage than that starter would have. Teams are often less likely to want their RB3 to see significant work than their RB2.
However, that dream scenario doesn’t seem likely for Sermon. Even with Taylor healthy, Tyler Goodson has been involved in this Colts backfield. The sophomore UDFA has a 7.6% snap share for the season. That may not sound like much, but it’s close to half of Sermon’s own 19.2%. Goodson has also matched Sermon with one target so far this season — there’s a chance he is the preferred receiving back out of the two backups. Goodson is also more likely to be involved simply because Sermon is not a great RB2 — a third-round pick in the 2021 draft, Sermon being on his third NFL team already proves we’re not exactly dealing with an elite talent.
With that said, Sermon should still easily lead the Colts in carries this week. That’s a great place for him to be heading into a matchup with the Jaguars, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing running backs so far this season. The Colts are underdogs on the round in Jacksonville, but they still have a decent 20.5-point team total.
Indianapolis will also be without Anthony Richardson this week, which could be a blessing in disguise for Sermon. From what we saw last week, Joe Flacco may actually be the better option for making this offense move on a consistent basis. He also is far less likely to steal any goal-line touchdown opportunities than Richardson.
Overall, this is a solid situation for Sermon. He is absolutely someone you can put right into your lineup straight from the waiver wire as a flex or even RB2 play. But should you start him over these other options? Let’s break it down.
Trey Sermon vs. Brian Robinson
Robinson started this week heavily questionable with a knee injury, but he is reportedly “good to go” for today’s matchup. That’s excellent news for fantasy managers, as Robinson is in the middle of a breakout season in this new-look Commanders offense. He has scored at least 10 half-PPR points in all four weeks so far this season, largely thanks to his three rushing touchdowns as Washington's offense has been unstoppable.
It is worth noting that the Browns’ defense is a much tougher matchup than those the Commanders have faced so far this season. Although they’re currently lapping the league in most offensive efficiency metrics, Washington should slow down when not facing the Buccaneers, Giants, Bengals, or Cardinals.
Even still, things look better for Robinson than for Sermon. The Commanders’ team total is three points higher, and they are also favorites at home this week. Give me the guy who has performed at a borderline RB1 season so far this season over the backup we’re hoping for RB2 numbers from. For what it’s worth, the public agrees. Our Start/Sit Tool reports that 40% of managers are starting Robinson over Sermon, with just 7.5% going the other way (the rest are starting both or neither).
Start: Brian Robinson
Trey Sermon vs. Javonte Williams
Sticking with the public’s opinion for a second, this is a much tougher decision. There is less than a 10% difference between these two players, as 19.8% of managers are starting Williams while 27.9% are starting Sermon. This makes sense, as Williams has been much worse than Robinson so far this season. Where Robinson has yet to fall out of double digits, Javonte has yet to score more than 9.0 half-PPR points through four weeks.
A large part of Williams’ struggles have been due to usage. He has a 56.3% snap rate but just a 38.8% share of the Broncos’ running backs and a 10.1% target share. However, he hasn't made the most of the touches he has seen. According to NextGenStats, Javonte ranks sixth-worst in the league with 0.9 yards below expected per carry. Combine that with the Broncos’ overall offensive ineptitude, and it’s not surprising that Williams’ fantasy production has been lackluster.
Denver does have a good matchup this week, as they are favored for a divisional matchup with the Raiders. Still, Williams has been straight-up bad so far this season. He may have a higher floor, but the mystery box of Sermon has a much higher ceiling.
Start: Trey Sermon
Trey Sermon vs. Jerome Ford
Ford has had a weird start to the season. If you look just at his overall usage numbers — 68.6% snap share, 44.3% of attempts, 13.5% target share — he looks like a solid RB2. However, that obscures the fact that in Week 2 he was inexplicably relegated to a backup role behind D’Onta Foreman, being out-carried 14 to seven. This did only happen once, but the fact that it did for seemingly no reason means it’s a bit scary to start Ford each week.
His production also hasn’t been great, as the Browns’ offense as a whole has struggled. With just one TD for the season, Ford is averaging just 10.8 half-PPR points per game. However, the Browns have a good matchup this week against the Commanders, whose defense has been as bad as their offense has been good. Cleveland is rocking a decent 20.5-point implied total, the same as Sermon's Colts.
With that in mind, I’m going with Ford over Sermon. Although Ford’s usage isn’t entirely secure, Sermon’s isn’t either. We’ve also seen Ford be an above-average back in terms of efficiency this season, with 1.37 yards over expected per carry — I don’t expect that from Sermon.
Start: Jerome Ford
Trey Sermon vs. Cam Akers
Akers is very comparable to Sermon, another AFC South running back taking over for an injured starter (in Akers’ case, Joe Mixon). However, the key difference is we’ve already seen Akers’ role with Mixon sidelined … and it wasn’t pretty.
Last week, Akers wasn’t even the Texans’ lead running back in terms of snaps, playing just 38% compared to 40% for receiving back Dare Ogunbowale. J.J. Taylor was also involved, seeing six carries to Akers’ 13. Both Taylor (one) and Ogunbowale (four) also saw targets, while Akers did not.
The only reason to even consider Akers here is that the Texans have an excellent matchup. The Bills have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs at a whopping 32.5, four points clear of the next-worst team. However, that’s still not enough for me to back Akers given his terrible usage last week. In this case, even Sermon's mystery box probably has a higher floor than Akers’ limited usage.
Start: Trey Sermon
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