Thursday Night Football Week 7: Denver Broncos @ New Orleans Saints NFL Best Bets and Top Props
We are here to help you win some money on this week's Thursday Night Football game.
We have had back-to-back very strong Thursday Night Football games. Both were high-scoring with a ton of fantasy points and also relevant to the NFL standings. Unfortunately, we do not have similar expectations for this week's game when the New Orleans Saints host the Denver Broncos.
This one appears on the surface to be two teams going nowhere, with both offenses likely stuck in mud all night. However, we've been surprised before and can be surprised again. This will be a very difficult game to predict and gamble on because there are so many unknown variables.
That's why we're here. To break down all the news, injuries, and numbers to help you win some money on this game. We have to do something to make this game interesting.
Week 7 NFL Best Bets
The defenses are going to dominate this game. Both are superior to the opposing offense, with the Broncos' defense being one of the best in the league. The only saving grace for New Orleans is that the best cornerback in the NFL, Pat Surtain, is going to miss this game after suffering a concussion on Sunday. It's still a very slight hope but at least that gives them some hope.
Denver is whole on offense, they simply aren't very good. They are led by a rookie starting quarterback in Bo Nix, arguably the worst starting running back in the NFL in Javonte Williams, and a subpar group of wideouts highlighted by Courtland Sutton. There is very little to get excited about there. The Saints' defense is solid but not great, but they'll look like they are all-world in this game.
Where things get really complicated is with the Saints' offense. We have no idea what to expect other than it to be not very good. We'll start with the quarterback. Derek Carr will be missing another game with an oblique injury and Spencer Rattler will make his second career start. That's not ideal for anyone else on the offense. However, there aren't many players left on their offense anyway.
Both Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed have been ruled out for this game. So Rattler will be without his two top targets. To make matters worse, Taysom Hill has also been ruled out. That leaves them without any playmaking ability or ability to surprise the defense. The top pass-catchers for New Orleans are projected to be Bub Means and Juwan Johnson, other than Alvin Kamara of course.
That brings us to the running backs for the Saints. Sure, Kamara will catch a bunch of short passes, but there is also a potential wild card in the mix. There is a chance Kendre Miller can make his season debut this week and who knows how he'll fit into the offense. The coach seems to hate him, nevertheless, he's also the most talented pure runner on the roster. That could get messy as well.
That's a lot to process. This game will probably feel like a low-scoring blowout if that makes sense. The kind of game where a two-score lead feels insurmountable. We are going to do our best to sort it all out and figure out how to win you some cash.
The Picks
Spread: Denver Broncos -3 (-102)
Over/Under: Under 37 (-110)
Moneyline: Denver Broncos (-148)
Player Props of the Night
Prop #1: Juwan Johnson 40+ Receiving Yard (+185)
We are projecting Johnson to be the main downfield threat and playmaker in this group of pass-catchers. He has been getting better each week after starting the season off injured and we saw him clear this bar in Week 6 after Olave was knocked out of the game. Foster Moreau is also in the mix at tight end, but Johnson is the more explosive receiver that they need. With almost no one else to worry about, the Broncos' defense is also going to limit Kamara's production and Johnson is the only other proven option on the team.
Prop #2: Alvin Kamara Over 4.5 Receptions (-130)
This is going to be one of the classic Kamara performances when he catches about nine passes for 40 yards. We don't expect him to be productive from a yards or TD standpoint, but he's going to see a ton of dump-offs. Last week, in Rattler's first start, he caught five of eight targets for 24 yards. Look for the targets to climb even higher this week, but the yards maybe not so much.
Prop #3: Alvin Kamara Under 68.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
With little to no passing game for the Saints, we expect the Broncos to completely take away the rushing game. After a hot start, he already hasn't had more than 40 yards in two weeks. These seasons get late earlier each year as these running backs get older. In his year 30 season, he already looks like he's slowing down and getting banged up compared to how he looked in September. Combine that with no help around him and Kamara is in for a long day on the ground.
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