Fantasy Football Trades Week 9: Diontae Johnson, Jaylen Waddle, Josh Jacobs

There's nothing more fun than making a fantasy football trade. However, it can often be hard to know which players to target and which of your own you can get good value for.

That's where FantasySP's tools come in: We can use the FantasySP Fantasy Assistant to find players that have the most Expected Trade Interest (ETI) and then cross-reference with the Trade Value Chart to see how much those players are worth. Here are this week’s leaders in ETI:

I’m not surprised to see Diontae Johnson and Zay Flowers on the top of this list, as the former’s trade to the Baltimore Ravens means both of their values are currently on the move. I’ll only be featuring Johnson in this article, so, for the record, I lean toward holding Flowers. We’ll also break down two other high-value assets that are clearly hot commodities at the mid-point of the season. Let’s get started!

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Best Fantasy Football Trades To Make Week 9

Sell High On Diontae Johnson

I love Diontae Johnson and have argued for years that he is one of the league’s most underrated receivers. But I simply don’t see this move working out for his fantasy value. For one, fantasy managers often overestimate how easy it will be for players to settle into new teams halfway through a season — look at how the three other big-name receivers to be moved have performed so far. 

Even once Diontae is eventually fully settled in Baltimore’s offense, this is simply not a great fit for his fantasy value. The Ravens rank fifth in the league with a 46% rush rate. Depending on the source you use, they can rank as high as fourth in pass rate below expected. In Carolina (a team with a well above-average pass rate), Johnson was the clear top receiver, with a 25% target share. There is very little chance he maintains that target rate on a much more talented Baltimore offense. 

We also have to listen a little to what the Ravens are telling us about how they plan to use their newest weapon. I’m skeptical of the reports that Baltimore plans on keeping Johnson behind both Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman, but those rumors are at least a signal that he is closer to being a depth piece than their immediate target leader. The fact that he was traded for such low draft compensation (just the swap of a fifth-round pick for a sixth-round pick) is another bearish sign of how NFL teams view Johnson’s ability to make an impact. 

I still like Johnson as a player, and I think he will have big games on this much better offense. But the fantasy community seems to have a higher opinion of him than the NFL does — now is the time to move him before that perception catches up (and before you have to deal with multiple games of him being eased into Balitmore’s offense). There's always someone willing to buy the hype on a flashy move like this, so find that person in your league.

Sell “Low” On Jaylen Waddle

I was really conflicted on this one. On the one hand, Waddle is an obvious buy-low candidate. He hasn’t caught more than four passes, cracked 50 yards, or scored a touchdown since Week 1. However, Tua Tagovailoa’s return is undeniably a massive improvement to this entire Miami offense; Waddle will eventually benefit from that. 

However, I think even the most casual of fantasy managers are aware of the impact Tua has on the Dolphins’ offense. Recommending buying low on Waddle as though anyone will be willing to trade him at his current production level isn’t actionable advice. Instead, I recommend zigging where everyone is zagging and moving away from Waddle to someone who thinks they are taking advantage of a buy-low opportunity.

Obviously, don’t move Waddle if someone is offering you a package to match his current WR66 ranking. However, anyone expecting Waddle to bounce back to the WR2 numbers he provided last season (let alone the borderline WR1 production he provided in 2022) may be overly optimistic. 

Even with Tua healthy, this Dolphins offense is not the juggernaut it once was. Just as importantly, Waddle’s usage has changed. He’s averaged just a 13% target share in Tua’s three healthy games, way down from his 22% average last season. With the rise of De’Von Achane as a receiving weapon, plus a few more targets each game to Jonnu Smith, the Dolphins are no longer condensing over half of their targets on Waddle and Tyreek Hill. Hill will still get his, but Waddle will have more than his fair share of dud games (with some big outings mixed in, of course). Don’t sell too cheap, but this may be a chance to get value out of a player who hasn’t lived up to his draft price so far this season ... no matter who has been under center.

Buy Josh Jacobs

Last week, I would have labeled Jacobs as a Buy Low. This week, coming off his best outing of the season, I just have him as a straight-up Buy. Yes, his trade value is probably much higher than it was a week ago, but he wasn’t one of the leaders in ETI last week. That he is atop the ETI charts this week is actually a good sign, as it implies some Jacobs managers may be trying to move him coming off of that big game … which we can take advantage of.

There are a few reasons I like trading for Jacobs. For one, he’s a bell cow RB on an elite offense, and those are always hard to come by. The chance that Emanuel Wilson might cut more into his role seems much smaller now that Wilson himself is struggling to hold onto his RB2 job ahead of Chris Brooks. 

For another, Jacobs, even after his two-TD outing last week, is due for some positive TD regression. I’ve been harping for weeks about how unsustainable the Packers’ rushing-to-passing TD ratio is — even after last week, they still lead the league with 78% of their touchdowns having come through the air. That’s insane for a team that ranks in the top five in overall rush rate and rush rate vs. expected. Jacobs, who has handled every one of Green Bay’s RB goal-line carries, will be the beneficiary (and already was last week) as that regresses to the mean. Heading into what will likely be a Malik Willis week (meaning tons of volume for Jacobs), now is a great time to buy the veteran RB.

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