Fantasy Football Week 9 D/ST Start/Sit: Saints, Commanders, Lions, Broncos, Bills
Ted goes over defenses to start and sit for your Week 9 fantasy football matchups.
Welcome to this week’s fantasy football DST start/sit breakdown! As always, let’s start by taking a look back at last week’s results ... spoiler alert, they weren’t ideal. On the Start side, the Lions were the second-highest-scoring unit of the week, and the other teams I referenced from my streaming breakdown (the Chiefs, Texans, and Chargers) all also finished in the top 10. But my other official Start, the Ravens, dropped multiple gift-wrapped Jameis Winston interceptions en route to a 0-point outing. I also had one big miss on the Sit side, as the Bills’ defense absolutely dominated a Seahawks team that looked lost without D.K. Metcalf. The Eagles also managed a solid outing against the Bengals, so that's another miss, but at least the Browns came through with a miserable outing.
Defensive scoring is always a bit unpredictable, but we still want to see better outcomes than we did in Week 8. Hopefully, that will be the case this week, as there are plenty of overlooked defenses in good matchups and a few overmatched units being widely started. Let’s get right into it!
For more help with your toughest Start/Sit decisions, check out FantasySP’s NFL Start/Sit tool!
Fantasy Football Defenses To Start Week 9
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
As always, let’s start with a pick from my streaming DST breakdown. Unlike this one, that article has been on absolute fire over the last few weeks, and all four of the picks this week are worth starting: Saints, Titans, Patriots, and Bengals.
For this particular blurb, let’s focus on the Saints, who are lucky enough to draw a matchup with the Panthers this week. Even better for New Orleans’ defense, the Panthers have officially announced that Bryce Young will be their starting quarterback for Week 9. To put into perspective how bad Young has been in his sophomore season, last week was easily his best performance of the year; he took two sacks and threw two interceptions as the Panthers’ offense finished with just 14 points.
For the season, Young has an absolutely putrid -0.36 EPA per dropback, plus the sixth-highest turnover-worthy-play rate and the 12th-highest sack rate among qualified QBs. His adjusted net yards per attempt of 2.58 is also easily the worst in the league. It legitimately doesn’t matter how bad the Saints’ defense has been (and they should be better with a more competent offense in Derek Carr’s return). Any team playing against Young is a must-start until proven otherwise.
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants
Aside from the four teams I suggested as streams, the Commanders are another good option not being started in enough leagues this week. Despite being the fourth-ranked DST in our Week 9 Projections, Washington’s defense is currently being started in under a third of fantasy leagues.
That is likely because of their historical (well-earned) reputation as a pushover, but this Commanders defense is much better than those we have seen in recent years. They’re still by no means elite, but Washington’s defense has allowed the 10th-fewest points and 13th-fewest yards per game so far this season.
That should be more than enough for them to take care of their division rivals, the Giants, who have also taken a step forward but are still nowhere near a threatening offensive unit. New York’s offense ranks seventh-lowest in EPA per play, second-lowest in points per game, and seventh-lowest in yards per game.
Perhaps surprisingly, Daniel Jones isn’t the main reason this play is appealing. He does rank 11th-worst among QBs with at least 50 dropbacks in turnover-worthy-play rate, but he ranks just about average in pressure-to-sack rate. The issue is with the Giants’ offensive line, which ranks third in the league by giving up pressure 9.6% more often than expected. That means New York ranks fourth in the league with over three sacks given up per game, a number that should go even higher as they drop back early and often to keep up with Washington’s explosive offense.
Fantasy Football Defenses To Sit Week 9
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Yes, the Lions have been an elite defense so far this season. But fantasy defensive scoring is much more about matchups than it is about defensive talent, and this is a terrible matchup. Green Bay’s offense ranks sixth in points per game, fifth in yards per game, and sixth in yards per play. They rank slightly lower in EPA per play, at 10th, but that’s still certainly nothing to get excited about.
On the bright side (for Lions' managers, that is), there is a chance that Jordan Love will miss this game with a groin injury. Early in the season, I recommended targeting the Packers with Malik Willis under center, as he was truly terrible in his Titans tenure. But whether Willis has improved or Matt LaFleur is just that good, the Packers’ offense was just fine in games with Willis under center, averaging 23 points per game.
In fact, Willis actually ranks first among ALL quarterbacks in EPA per dropback. I don't expect that to continue over a larger sample size, but it shows that he is not the usual backup quarterback to target. The Lions’ defense is currently projected to be started in around half of fantasy leagues, but I recommend looking elsewhere for Week 9.
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens
Like the Lions, the Broncos have been very impressive defensively so far this season. They lead the league in EPA and yards per play allowed, and they rank bottom three in both points and yards per game allowed. It’s not too surprising that 54% of managers currently have Denver in their starting lineups.
But, again like the Lions, the Broncos have an absolutely brutal matchup this week. I don’t think you need me to tell you how unstoppable the Derrick Henry/Lamar Jackson combo has been so far this season. The Broncos might literally be the best defense in the league, and I still don’t want them anywhere near my fantasy lineups this week.
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
I faded the Bills last week, and it was the wrong call. But I’m going back to the well this week, as Buffalo has another tough matchup with the Miami Dolphins. In the two full games played by Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins have averaged 23.5 points per game.
To be fair to the 48% of managers currently starting the Bills’ defense, they did hold the Dolphins to just 10 points in Week 2 (Tua played 72% of the snaps in that one). Miami’s offense, even with Tua healthy, has taken a clear step back from last season. But this is still a unit that is capable of dropping 40+ points every single week. Especially once we consider that Buffalo’s defense has been just okay so far this season, there are probably better available options in most leagues.
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