Fantasy Football Week 10 Quarterback Start/Sit: Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert and More
Three quarterbacks to start and three to sit in Week 10 of the NFL season.
We have officially entered the second half of the season. We think we know how the rest of the year is going to go, but the reality is that things will look much different come January.
An MVP candidate will likely get injured, flipping that discussion. A contender will lose a major impact player, possibly knocking them out of the playoff race. Someone whose season seems over will jump back into the division hunt.
The landscape will also change in fantasy football, mostly due to injuries but also as teams out of the playoff hunt start giving more opportunities to younger players. Someone who will make a major impact on your league’s fantasy championship is probably on the free agent market right now.
Let’s look at three quarterbacks to start and three to sit in Week 10 of the fantasy football season. This won’t include any obvious starters but rather some of the questionable players whose fantasy value fluctuates with their matchup.
I used defensive stats from NFL.com and our FantasySP defensive fantasy rankings to help identify the best and worst matchups. I will reference those numbers often.
Start
Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Darnold is QB14 heading into Week 10 and QB12 by points per game. He’s been a perfectly average fantasy quarterback; someone whose value is tied to his matchup.
Well, the matchup couldn’t be much better than this one. Jacksonville has allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and the third-most yards per pass attempt. They are tied for the most pass touchdowns allowed.
Darnold is a good quarterback with great weapons and a great matchup; that sounds like a top-10 quarterback this week.
Daniel Jones, New York Giants @ Carolina Panthers
Jones’ fantasy value suffers from his real-life reputation (which is mostly deserved). He runs the ball, though, the best thing a fantasy quarterback can do; Jones is seventh in QB rushing yards this year.
He is far from a weekly starter, as Jones is close to QB20. When he has the right matchup, Jones is a threat to finish as a top-10 quarterback, and Carolina offers that opportunity. The Panthers have allowed the fourth-most yards per pass attempt and the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
This is another case of an OK fantasy quarterback with a good matchup; it’s what streamers are made of.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Coming off their bye, it’s easy to forget some of the turmoil San Francisco has recently undergone. Deebo Samuel Sr. missed essentially a full game and had to go to the hospital with pneumonia, and Brandon Aiyuk was lost to a torn ACL. Samuel returned, and rookie Ricky Pearsall has stepped into the lineup, but Jauan Jennings missed multiple weeks of his own, and Christian McCaffrey still hasn’t played.
McCaffrey and Jennings are practicing; San Fran has a look at what their skill players will look like over the rest of the season barring more injuries. Purdy has still been QB10 through nine weeks, playing near his past fantasy levels.
Tampa Bay has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They are better in yards per pass attempt allowed (13th-most), but the Bucs give in bulk, allowing the third-most total passing yards and tied for the third-most passing touchdowns.
Purdy is on the line of streamer/weekly starter. The 49ers’ offense is usually so good that he puts up above-average fantasy scores by accident. With the matchup in his favor and possibly a (relatively) full-strength set of skill players, Purdy is set up for a successful Week 10.
Sit
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans
The Titans have allowed the fewest yards per pass attempt. They are closer to the middle in fantasy points given up to QBs, but Tennessee has good players at every level of the defense and has been successful even with an offense regularly setting them behind.
Through the first four weeks, Herbert never reached 200 yards and was fantasy QB27. In the four games since his Week 5 bye, Herbert is QB8 and has averaged nearly 290 yards per game. He has 10 touchdowns and just one interception.
Herbert will likely settle in the middle, making his fantasy value dependent on the matchup. This isn’t the right matchup to test. Herbert is better on your bench this week.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos
Mahomes hasn’t been a good fantasy quarterback. He’s QB17 overall and has only been a top-10 guy once: last week against the Bucs (who we targeted above). Kansas City keeps winning because they have a machine. Mahomes does his thing, they run the ball, and they’ve played great defense the last two years.
Mahomes hasn’t been a fantasy star, though. He was QB8 last year and has been consistently below the mark of a fantasy starter this season. I don’t have any qualms about benching Mahomes when he has tougher matchups.
The Broncos have allowed the sixth-least yards per pass attempt and fifth-least fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. With one of the tougher matchups in the league, Mahomes will probably fall below the starting line again (as will his receivers).
Drake Maye, New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears
Maye has been a nice fantasy surprise, topping 240 yards in each of his first two starts while combining for five touchdowns and two interceptions. Last week against the Titans didn’t go so well: 206 yards on just 5.0 yards per attempt with a touchdown and two interceptions.
Maye has been running the ball well, gaining 95 yards last week in Tennessee. He has averaged over 40 rushing yards in his five games despite only playing minimal snaps in two of those contests. As with Week 9, though, Maye has another bad matchup here.
The Bears are just a little above average by yards per pass attempt allowed, and they have given up the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Chicago is in the top 10 in limiting QB running and hasn’t allowed a touchdown to any quarterback on the ground.
Maye will have good fantasy weeks, but this seems like a bad time to put him in the lineup. The Bears have been a very good defense all year, likely leaving a better fantasy option somewhere else.
