Fantasy Football Trades Week 11: Breece Hall, George Pickens, Kenneth Walker, CeeDee Lamb

There's nothing more fun than making a fantasy football trade. However, it can often be hard to know which players to target and which of your own you can get good value for.

That's where FantasySP's tools come in: We can use the FantasySP Fantasy Assistant to find players that have the most Expected Trade Interest (ETI) and then cross-reference with the Trade Value Chart to see how much those players are worth. Here are this week’s leaders in ETI:

This week, Breece Hall leads the way with a solid 22% ETI. I wouldn’t be surprised if plenty of managers are looking to move on from the first-round pick after a disappointing last few weeks (spoiler alert: I am). He is then followed by three separate players all tied at 19% ETI, so we will have a bonus fourth player in this week's article. Let’s get right into it!

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Best Fantasy Football Trades To Make Week 11

Sell Low On Breece Hall

I’m not recommending you sell Hall for pennies. But, if my Twitter feed is anything to go by, there are still plenty of people expecting him to produce like a top-five running back every week. And there’s simply no number (outside of preseason ADP) that we can point to in order to expect that. For the season, Hall ranks 22nd in Half-PPR points per game. He ranks higher in expected points at seventh, but that’s still not the kind of production his name value implies.

Moreover, that expected points number is hugely inflated by the two weeks after Robert Saleh was fired, in which Hall saw god-tier usage. In those two weeks (Week 6 and Week 7), he averaged an 84% snap share, an 83% RB rush share, and a massive 20% target share. Outside of those weeks, those numbers have been 75%, 65%, and 13%. That’s still great, but it’s not truly elite. The Jets’ new decision-makers briefly gave Hall pristine usage, but they quickly reverted to using Braelon Allen more frequently. The arrival of Davante Adams also didn’t help on the target share front. 

If the Jets were living up to expectations, this usage might be fine. Instead, they’re imploding. The Jets’ offense ranks in the bottom 10 in both points and yards per game and just put up a grand total of six points against a bad Cardinals defense. And Breece himself isn’t exactly showing that he is a special enough talent to thrive in bad circumstances — he ranks 52nd out of 64 qualified RBs in PFF Rush Grade and below average in yards after contact per attempt. I’m not saying Hall is a bad player, just pointing out that “overcomes a bad situation and good-not-great usage with sparkling efficiency” doesn’t appear to be a likely outcome for him this year. If you can move Hall for anything close to elite RB1 value, do it.     

Buy High On George Pickens

Since Russell Wilson took over under center for the Steelers, George Pickens is averaging 15.7 Half-PPR points per game. Wilson is targeting him often (seven targets per game, a 24% share) and down the field (a 16.0 ADOT for 112 air yards per game). Pickens is also getting plenty of looks in the end zone, with five end zone targets in those three games. And he is making the most of those looks, as his elite contested-catch ability makes him a perfect fit for DangerRuss’ game. Fantasy Points Data has credited him with five “Hero” catches over the last three weeks — only one other player (Garrett Wilson) has that many for the entire season.

Of course, relying on spectacular contested catches means Pickens is always going to be more inconsistent than a low-ADOT slot merchant. It would also be unrealistic to expect Russ to maintain his current 7.1% TD rate over a larger sample. But Pickens is seeing enough deep opportunities per game that he has a great shot to end every week with at least one big play. 

If you’re still not convinced, consider that the Steelers also have a truly excellent schedule coming up. Not only do they play the sieve known as the Ravens’ secondary twice, but all but two of their remaining matchups are above-average in points given up to receivers. Even their “bad” matchups (KC and Philadelphia) may actually help Pickens if the Steelers are forced to throw the ball to keep up with elite offenses. Pickens should be a WR1 the rest of the way, and now is the time to get him on your roster before he goes off against Baltimore on Sunday. 

Buy Low Kenneth Walker III

Walker’s performances in the last two weeks have been just okay, but his usage all season has been stellar. He ranks sixth among all RBs in expected Half-PPR points per game and (unlike Hall) is scoring more or less in line with his expectations. If we exclude the two games he missed due to injury, Walker has handled an excellent 77% of the Seahawks’ RB rushes. Seattle is one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league, but he has been involved there, too, with a 13% target share for 4.7 targets per game. 

He’s also got an excellent schedule over the next four weeks, with two matchups against the defensively-challenged Cardinals and one each against two disappointing defenses in the Jets and 49ers. The one potential red flag for Walker is that he does have a tough playoff schedule, facing off against three good NFC North defenses in the Packers, Vikings, and Bears. However, Minnesota is the only truly terrible matchup in that bunch. The Packers and Bears actually both allow opposing running backs to score slightly above their averages. If you can find a manager who has been turned off by Walker’s recent production, the presence of Zach Charbonnet, or those scary red-colored matchups in the playoffs, now is the time to trade for him. 

Buy Low On CeeDee Lamb

This move is not for the faint of heart. The Cowboys’ offense, which was already struggling so far this season, absolutely disintegrated with Cooper Rush replacing the injured Dak Prescott on Sunday. They averaged -0.65 EPA per play with Rush under center — I can’t emphasize enough how terrible that is. This is the new normal for the Cowboys, too, as Prescott is officially done for the year.

However, while I’m not suggesting that he will still be a top-flight fantasy WR catching passes from Rush, I like Lamb’s chances to still be a solid weekly contributor. To be fair to him, we’ve seen Rush be vaguely competent before, and the Eagles’ defense has been dominating teams of late. Meanwhile, Lamb still easily led the Cowboys with a 31% target share in Week 10, even though he and the rest of the Cowboys' starters were benched early. We can expect him to remain at or above that mark going forward, and it’s almost impossible for a player (especially one as talented as Lamb) to not produce with usage like that. 

Once again, schedule is also a factor in this call. All but three of the Cowboys’ remaining opponents are above-average matchups for wide receivers. Even two of the teams that are technically below-average matchups, the Giants and Panthers, give up above-average numbers in EPA per dropback. They have “limited” WRs because teams simply don’t need to pass against them, but the Cowboys sans Dak aren’t likely to be running up the score. The one fly in the ointment of Lamb’s schedule is a fantasy championship matchup with the same Eagles that just shut him down. But I recommend dealing with that problem when you get there. For now, we have a buy-low window on one of the most talented receivers in the league.

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.