Should You Add Tank Bigsby, Jake Ferguson, Jordan Mason, Other Dropped Fantasy Football Players?
Ted uses FantasySP's Predictive Analytics to identify players who may be on fantasy football waivers heading into Week 11.
Oftentimes, the best pickup of a fantasy football season isn’t a player who went undrafted. Instead, it’s someone who was originally selected or added early in the season but later dropped by an impatient manager after a bad week or two. It’s important to keep an eye on players being dropped in your leagues, but sometimes valuable players can slip through the cracks.
Luckily, the Fantasy Assistant is here to help. The Fantasy Assistant uses Predictive Analytics to calculate Expected Drop Interest (EDI) for every player each week. EDI is an estimation of the percentage of leagues in which a player will be or has been dropped each week. If you sync your fantasy league, you will be able to see which of those players have become available in your particular league. Here are this week’s leaders in EDI:
This week, we have a pretty classic late-season mix of EDI leaders. Some injured players, some underperformers, and a bunch of last week’s popular streaming options. Let’s break down which players are worth checking for on your fantasy football waiver wires.
RB Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars
This is Bigsby’s second week in a row on top of the EWI charts. And, while I’m not as confident as I was last week, I do think it’s still too early to give up on the sophomore RB. Yes, the Jaguars are falling apart with Trevor Lawrence potentially done for the year. Yes, Travis Etienne is back. Yes, Bigsby himself is now dealing with an ankle injury. But we’ve still yet to see what the Jaguars really want this backfield to look like with both backs healthy. Until we get confirmation that Etienne is above Bigsby in the pecking order, I’m holding onto the guy who is behind only Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley in rush yards over expected per attempt.
QB Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
Darnold started the season red-hot in his new home in Minnesota, and he actually still ranks as the fantasy QB12 for the season. However, he now has just one top-12 finish in his last five weeks. It’s not surprising that this is the week managers are moving on from Darnold, as he completely flopped with three interceptions and zero touchdowns against the paper-soft Jaguars’ secondary on Sunday. If Darnold couldn’t take advantage of that matchup, I can’t imagine the scenario where he is worth starting in a 1-QB league. Don’t bother checking your waiver wire for him unless you are in a 2-QB format.
QB Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Another borderline QB1 coming off a bad performance, I don’t think Danny Dimes is worth chasing on the waiver wire, either. He does bring more rushing upside than Darnold and has had a few decent games this year, but Jones is trending in the wrong direction. With the Giants on bye in Week 11 and rumors abounding that they will bench Jones for Drew Lock, this is not the time to pick up Dimes off the ground.
TE Mike Gesicki, Cincinnati Bengals
Gesicki being among the top names in EDI is a classic example of fantasy managers overreacting to small samples. Personally, I wasn’t a huge fan of Gesicki’s outlook heading into Week 10. But his underlying usage last Thursday actually had some very positive indicators; anyone who believed in him after Week 9 certainly shouldn't be giving up on him after he saw better usage in Week 10. With Erick All Jr. done for the season (and Tee Higgins sidelined), Gesicki posted a season-high 73% route participation rate last week. If that number stays high, the former Dolphin’s slot-receiver-like usage should allow him to be a borderline TE1. If you were in on Gesikci in last week’s waiver run and missed out, check your waiver wire in case whoever did grab him was feeling impatient and sent him straight back.
TE Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys
Ferguson is a miss for me this season, as I thought early on that he would take advantage of the crumbling TE landscape to establish himself as a top-tier option at the position. Instead, his elite peripheral numbers from the first few weeks have regressed, and he has been unable to provide consistent production while the Cowboys’ offense struggles. With Cooper Rush replacing Dak Prescott (who is now done for the season) in Week 10, Fergusn posted his second-lowest target share of the season at just 14%. Meanwhile, Dallas’ offense as a whole somehow got much, much worse. With that in mind, Ferguson isn’t someone I would be too excited to see land on waivers, but he’s also not the worst add in deeper leagues in case Rush can turn it around.
RB Jordan Mason, San Francisco 49ers
On the one hand, Christian McCaffrey returning and seeing a full workload immediately kills Jordan Mason’s viability as a weekly fantasy play. On the other hand, Mason himself was at least healthy, and he beat out Isaac Guerendo for second behind CMC in snaps (by one, four to three). That means Mason is still one of the most valuable handcuffs in the league, and I would grab him anywhere he is available.
QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
So far, I’ve been down on the fringe QB1s that are being dropped this week. However, I don’t think I would give up on Stafford just yet. In weeks with both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp active (including multiple games where one or both were limited or exited early), he is averaging a solid 17.8 points per game. If you’re looking for QB help, you could do a lot worse than Stafford with his top two weapons finally healthy.
TE Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints
Taysom Hill is a fantasy football enigma, so I can never really blame anyone for how they choose to approach him. With that said, I do think he is worth rostering given the usage he has seen over the last few weeks. With the entire Saints’ WR room injured, he posted a season-high 59% route participation rate last week, to go along with four carries. He also had an 88-yard TD on the Saints’ very first play of the game that was called back due to a hold. At the very least, Taysom's goal-line usage means he has a decent shot to score a TD each week, which puts him in the range of streamable TEs. Combine that with his unique upside, and he’s worth holding in most leagues.
Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.