Fantasy Football Trades Week 14: Malik Nabers, De'Von Achane, DeAndre Hopkins
Ted breaks down what to do with some of the hottest names on the Week 14 fantasy football trade market.
This may be my final trade article of the season, as even the most liberal of fantasy football leagues will almost certainly have their trade deadlines when the fantasy football playoffs begin after Week 14. If your league does still allow trades this week, making a move now could be the difference between winning a championship or ending your season empty-handed.
Of course, finding a league-winning fantasy football trade is often easier said than done. That's where FantasySP's tools come in: We can use the FantasySP Fantasy Assistant to find players that have the most Expected Trade Interest (ETI) and then cross-reference with the Trade Value Chart to see how much those players are worth. Here are this week’s leaders in ETI:
We have relatively low leaders in ETI this week, perhaps because many leagues have already had their trade deadlines. Malik Nabers leads the way at 13%, followed by a whole host of players at 12%. I will pick a few of the most interesting of these players to highlight below.
Sync your league with the Fantasy Assistant to get rankings, waiver help, trade suggestions, optimal lineups, and more. Not sure Who You Should Start? We can help. Utilize our fantasy football trade analyzer to make sure you’re getting the best value.
Best Fantasy Football Trades To Make Week 14
Buy Low On Malik Nabers
It may be hard to “Buy Low” on an exciting rookie receiver coming off a 13-target game. But Nabers hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 3, and he hasn’t finished as a top-24 receiver since Week 4 (in Half-PPR, in Full PPR, he has been much more productive). Especially now that the Giants are choosing between two atrocious QB options in Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito (they’re going with Lock for this week), some managers may be willing to move on from the young star.
And Nabers has still been seeing absolute elite usage. For the season, he leads the entire NFL with a 34% target share — no other player is at even 30%. His 48% air yards share lands him second to only A.J. Brown, and his 43% first-read share is once again the best in the business. Even on a terrible offense, with terrible quarterback play, that is going to turn into points.
Nabers also has excellent matchups coming up, with all four of his remaining opponents in the fantasy season ranking as above-average schedule-adjusted matchups for WRs, including two in the top five. Combine that with likely TD regression, and he could very well find himself on plenty of championship rosters.
Buy High On De'Von Achane
If buying Nabers is going to be tough, buying Achane is going to be near-impossible. I don’t have any sneaky stats here to explain why the second-year RB might be undervalued. He has been an absolutely elite running back whenever Tua Tagovailoa is healthy, and everyone knows it, especially anyone lucky enough to roster him.
If we look just at games where Tua plays the majority of snaps, Achane has averaged 20.0 Half-PPR points on the dot. Over the whole season, that would land him just behind Saquon Barkley as the RB2 overall. The craziest part of this is that Achane hasn’t even had to rely on the historic efficiency he had as a rookie. His expected fantasy points per game of 19.2 is very similar to his actual scoring, as his usage is just that good: 12.5 rushing attempts per game plus an absurd 18% target share.
The price to get him on your roster will be massive, but I am always of the opinion that true running back studs are worth paying up for if they are available. Hopefully, Achane’s relatively high ETI is a sign that at least some managers will be willing to part with him for the right price.
Sell DeAndre Hopkins
I wasn’t sure whether to call this a “Sell High” or a “Sell Low,” but one thing is for certain: I do not recommend trusting DeAndre Hopkins in the fantasy football playoffs. Since joining the Chiefs in Week 8, the veteran wideout is averaging just 10.6 Half-PPR points per game. More importantly, he seems to have settled into a very part-time role in Kansas City’s offense, peaking at a 64% route participation rate.
On the bright side, Hopkins is seeing the ball when he is on the field, with an elite 25% target per route run rate as a Chief. But he simply isn’t on the field enough to provide much in the way of floor or ceiling. The Chiefs have their eyes set on the Super Bowl, and they are clearly doing their absolute best to make sure the 32-year-old is still healthy if they get there.
Especially with JuJu Smith-Schuster back healthy and even Hollywood Brown threatening to return in the regular season, I don’t see Hopkins’ role expanding any time soon. And he’s a very risky play (with a lowered ceiling to boot) as long as he is running less than a full complement of routes. If you can somehow package him into a more consistent option, do it.
Rapid-Fire
As mentioned, there were seven players tied for second in ETI this week. My strongest takes are on Achane and Hopkins, but here is a quick breakdown of what you should do with the remaining five:
Drop Dallas Goedert
Goedert was already just a fringe TE1 — he is tied for 10th/11th in points per game but falls even lower if you exclude games where one of A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith is absent. Now, he is set to miss multiple weeks with a knee injury. Feel free to try and trade him, but don’t hesitate to drop him if you can’t find any takers.
Sell Rhamondre Stevenson
Of all the takes in this article, this may be the one I feel the least strongly about. Rhamondre’s usage has mostly been excellent, but he does have a weird tendency of being phased out in certain games (this happened recently in Week 12). Combine that with a rough schedule in the playoffs against the Chargers, the Bills, and the suddenly formidable Cardinals’ defense, and it’s worth listening to offers on Stevenson — especially if you need a win this week with the Patriots on bye.
Hold Chris Olave (On Your IR)
I think we see Chris Olave again this season. I wouldn’t even be shocked if he returns as soon as he is eligible, in Week 15. His situation isn’t that dissimilar to Tua Tagovailoa’s, suffering multiple high-profile concussions before being placed on IR, and Tua returned after missing the minimum four weeks. When he does return, Olave should immediately see elite usage on a Saints offense desperate for playmakers. He should be held, and I don’t even hate seeing if you can get him for super cheap from a league-mate who has given up hope.
Hold George Pickens
Since Russell Wilson took over as the Steelers’ starting quarterback, Pickens ranks as the WR12 in Half-PPR points per game. He ranks 22nd among WRs in targets, but fifth in air yards. The only reason I don’t have him listed as a Buy is that Pittsburgh does have some tougher matchups coming up, including on the road in Philadelphia and hosting the Chiefs in two of the three fantasy playoff weeks (even the Baltimore secondary has been looking better of late).
Buy Kyren Williams
Honestly, my logic with Kyren is kind of similar to my logic with Achane: If you get a chance to buy an elite RB, do it. And for all the talk about Blake Corum, Kyren is still obviously an elite RB, in everything from usage (he leads the league in rush attempt share to go with a 7% target share) to production (RB9 in points per game). His matchups are mixed, but Williams’ excellent workload means he should still be able to finish the season strong.
Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.