Week 15 Fantasy Football Kicker Start Decisions: Harrison Butker, Wil Lutz, Jason Sanders, Chris Boswell and Chase McLaughlin
Comparing the recently returned Harrison Butker to four other kickers in Week 15.
Harrison Butker has been on IR since Week 11, but he will return to kick this week after the team cut temporary fill-in Matthew Wright. Butker is owned in less than 50% of leagues as of Saturday night, and as the kicker for a Patrick Mahomes-led offense, he’s obviously a sought-after fantasy asset (despite the Chiefs’ underwhelming efforts at times).
Butker has been showing up a lot on our FantasySP “Who Should I Start?” tool. This means fantasy owners are comparing him against multiple other kickers often to help determine the best play. That makes Butker a good player to focus on when looking at who to start among kickers in Week 15.
Let’s look at Butker and four other kickers who have often been compared to him with the FantasySP tool. I will use stats and rankings from NFL.com and our FantasySP defensive fantasy rankings and will reference those numbers often.
The full rankings of the players covered are listed at the bottom. Weather forecasts are from nflweather.com and correct as of 9 p.m. MST on Saturday night.
Harrison Butker, Kansas City Chiefs @ Cleveland Browns
Weather Forecast: 41 degrees, chance of rain, 21 mph wind
Cleveland is right in the middle in terms of fantasy points allowed to kickers. The Browns have given up the eighth-most points, offering plenty of chances for opponents to score.
While Kansas City has failed to excel on offense consistently, they’ve done what they need to, and that usually leads to field goals: the Chiefs have both attempted and made the sixth-most field goals this season.
With the weather a little rough, it could affect the length of field goal the team attempts, but it doesn’t seem like conditions should make things infeasible. I like the history of scoring points in KC and trust Butker as a top-tier fantasy kicker.
Chris Boswell, Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Weather Forecast: 40 degrees, chance of rain, 5 mph wind
Philadelphia is in the bottom five in fantasy points allowed to kickers and is tied for the second-least points given up. Opposite of the Browns in the previous section, Philly limits their opponents’ scoring opportunities and holds down kickers in the process.
Boswell is on fire this year, as he has attempted two more field goals than anyone else and made five more kicks. He was the best fantasy kicker during the regular season.
The matchup is brutal here, though, and I have a hard time trusting Boswell in this one. I get it if you choose to roll with him; he’s the “star” who got you here. I prefer Butker’s outlook, though, and would start him over the Pittsburgh kicker.
Fantasy Advice: Start Harrison Butker over Chris Boswell
Wil Lutz, Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts
Weather Forecast: 54 degrees, clear, 15 mph wind
Kickers in Denver benefit from a colloquial advantage due to the thin air a mile above sea level. Because it’s known they can kick further, coaches are more likely to allow their kickers to go out for long attempts that might usually be out of their range. That gives those players more chances to score five fantasy points with a single swing of the leg.
The weather looks fair by Denver standards. Indianapolis is close to average in both points allowed and fantasy points allowed to kickers (maybe a hair worse than average in the latter).
This looks like a decent matchup in the best outdoor kicker situation for distance. Lutz is a player to consider starting and a 50/50 proposition compared to Butker. I will slightly favor the Chiefs’ kicker because I like the offense better, but it’s a toss-up.
Fantasy Advice: Start Harrison Butker over Wil Lutz, but it’s razor-thin
Chase McLaughlin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Chargers
Weather Forecast: 66 degrees, partly cloudy, 7 mph wind
Weather usually isn’t a problem in Los Angeles, and Week 15 is no exception. The moderate conditions create circumstances about as good as could be outside of a dome. That’s an important step toward a good fantasy week for a kicker.
The matchup isn’t very good, though, as the Chargers have allowed near the least fantasy points to kickers and 27 less points than any other team entering Sunday. Tampa’s offense is good enough to generally make McLaughlin a feasible fantasy guy, but this is about as bad a matchup as a kicker can have.
Given McLaughlin’s tough opponent, I prefer Butker to the Tampa kicker.
Fantasy Advice: Start Harrison Butker over Chase McLaughlin
Jason Sanders, Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans
Weather Forecast: 78 degrees, fog, 10 mph wind
Houston has a retractable roof and could close it if the weather turned bad enough, but it doesn’t seem like that will happen unless something changes. And unless that fog is dense enough to severely affect vision, it’s probably not going to do much to hurt the kicking game.
The Texans have allowed the 12th-least points and sit right in the middle in fantasy points given up to kickers. They present a middling matchup at best (and probably a little worse). Houston’s defense is the strength of the team.
Sanders and Miami are tied for eighth in both field goal attempts and makes, a stat made more impressive by the fact that Tua Tagovailoa missed four games, handicapping the offense.
Sanders is an OK fantasy option, even with the “blah” matchup, but I favor Butker when comparing the two.
Fantasy Advice: Start Harrison Butker over Jason Sanders
Full Player Rankings
- Harrison Butker, KC
- Wil Lutz, DEN
- Jason Sanders, MIA
- Chris Boswell, PIT
- Chase McLaughlin, LAC
