Fantasy Football Week 16 Quarterback Start Decision: Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix and More

Week 16 of the NFL regular season is closing in quickly. With three games happening before Sunday, I wanted to get my quarterback start decision story in a bit earlier.

This week, we’ll compare Bo Nix, Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, Patrick Mahomes or Carson Wentz, Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy, Tua Tagovailoa, Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers, Anthony Richardson, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Sam Darnold, Jayden Daniels, Baker Mayfield, Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts.

That’s a lot of options, but given the importance of each fantasy game, I think it’s appropriate. Let’s dive in!

Looking for start/sit help? Be sure to check out the FantasySP Who Should I Start tool.

Important Numbers

Nix scored 14 fantasy points last week, and only had 12 in his previous game. The 12-point showing was his lowest over the past 10 contests.

Herbert, who is working through an ankle injury but should keep playing, scored 14 fantasy points last week. He scored that many in the game before that as well. 

Stroud scored 12 fantasy points last week, his lowest mark over his past three games. He hasn’t had over 16 fantasy points since week 6 (nine games ago).

Mahomes and Wentz are listed together because Mahomes is dealing with an ankle injury. He’s considered week to week, but practiced in full on Tuesday, which bodes well for him playing this week. Wentz would get the start if Mahomes is out - you can read about how I think that change would affect the Chiefs here.

Wilson was held to eight fantasy points last week, his second-lowest mark since taking over as the team’s starter. He had at least 14 fantasy points in the three games before that.

Jackson is obviously one of the top fantasy quarterbacks in the game and is coming off a 36-point outing. He’s scored at least 23 fantasy points in three straight contests.

Purdy struggled again in week 15 (although weather played a role), scoring four fantasy points. He had 22 fantasy points the game before that, but just two in the week before that (again when weather was an issue).

Tagovailoa had a fantasy dud in week 15, scoring just four points. He had at least 24 points in the previous four games.

Stafford tallied just eight fantasy points in that weather-affected game Purdy was in. He had at least 16 points in each of the previous four contests.

Goff erupted for 41 fantasy points in a losing effort in week 15. He could be asked to pass even more going for now that David Montgomery is out for the season.

Rodgers is coming off his best fantasy performance of the season, and has at least 14 points in four straight. He has multiple touchdowns in three of the past four contests, and just one pick over that span.

Richardson tallied 13 fantasy points last week despite not throwing a touchdown and having two interceptions. His running ability makes him a good dual-threat fantasy QB.

Murray only scored 10 fantasy points in week 15 - he’s hit that mark twice over the past four games. He scored 18 and 15 fantasy points in the other two games.

Burrow continues to shine as a fantasy performer. He scored 17 fantasy points last week, which was his lowest mark in the past six games.

Darnold tallied 11 fantasy points on Monday night, which was his worst fantasy outing in the past five weeks. Darnold scored at least 20 points in the other four contests.

Daniels recorded 24 fantasy points in week 15, which was his lowest mark in the past three weeks. He’s another dual-threat fantasy star.

Mayfield went for 28 fantasy points in week 15, which was his highest mark since week 4. He’s scored 19 or more points in three of the past four games, but the other outing was a 10-point performance.

Love tallied 18 fantasy points last week. He has at least 15 points in five straight games, which lines up with him getting healthier.

Hurts is yet another dual-threat fantasy star. He scored 28 fantasy points last week, and has at least 15 points in all but one game this season.

Week 16 Matchups

Nix and Herbert play in the Thursday night game. The clash for Nix is average, while it’s a bit tougher for Herbert.

Stroud and Mahomes or Wentz are part of one Saturday game. Both defenses are pretty similar, being just a bit below average.

Wilson and Jackson battle in the second Saturday game. Jackson has a very tough matchup, while Wilson has a pretty favorable clash ahead.

Murray takes on the Panthers, which is a super favorable matchup. Goff goes against the Bears, which is as tough a matchup as there is, on paper at least.

Richardson battles the Titans, which is a slightly above-average matchup. Burrow faces the Browns, which is a favorable matchup for the QB.

Stafford and Rodgers are part of another Sunday game. The matchups for each QB is above average, with Rodgers’ test being slightly easier.

Hurts and Daniels duel in a contest on Sunday. The Commanders are a slightly below-average clash for Hurts, while the Eagles are a stiff test for the rookie.

Darnold takes on the Seahawks, who are a pretty average matchup. Purdy and Tagovailoa face off on Sunday afternoon. The matchup for both QBs is tough, with Purdy’s being tougher.

Mayfield is part of the Sunday night game against the Cowboys, who are a pretty favorable test. Love is in the Monday night game against the Saints, which is a below-average matchup for the QB.

Weekly Projections and Starting Recommendations

In the weekly projections, it’s Burrow leading this group of QBs with 24 projected points. Jackson and Hurts are set for 21 points, while Murray is at 20.

Love is projected for 19 points, while Richardson and Daniels are at 18 each. Mayfield sits at 17 points.

Purdy, Stroud, Herbert, Rodgers, Tagovailoa and Wilson are all at 16 points. Goff, Stafford and Darnold all sit at 15 points. Mahomes and Nix are at 14 points each - Wentz doesn’t have a projection at this point.

I like Hurts the most amongst this group of quarterbacks. He’s one of the top fantasy quarterbacks in the league, and performed better against his opponent than Jackson or Burrow did against theirs.

I’d take Burrow over Jackson, with the matchup being the difference. These two have delivered all season, and you have to trust in them again at such a critical juncture of the season, especially because their fantasy ceilings are so high.

I like Mayfield next. His matchup is a big reason why I like him so much, and he’s delivered plenty of times this season to trust in such a big fantasy week.

I’d take a bit of a gamble and try Murray here. I know Murray is projected for one of the top fantasy weeks, but I simply don’t trust him enough to just plug him in. Hopefully he can shine in the very favorable clash.

Give me Goff next, which is probably a surprise to many of you. The matchup is tough on paper, but he scored 17 fantasy points the last time these teams met and I think he delivers another good score this week.

I’d try Daniels here. He scored 13 fantasy points in the team’s last matchup, but his dual-threat ability is simply too good to pass on any longer. You just have to trust him to get the job done.

Darnold and Love are very close in my book, but I prefer Darnold. The matchup is a big reason why, but I still have no issues playing Love.

Things become very muddled from here on out. I got to my decisions based on matchups and who I trust most at this point.

I’d try Richardson next. He’s not the safest fantasy starting option, but I like his dual-threat ability and think he does enough as a passer/runner to deliver a decent fantasy score.

Give me Stafford next. This is less about the matchup and more about Stafford having two great receivers to throw to. I think Stafford is worth a start in week 16.

I’d then go with the quarterback on the other side of the field in that game, Rodgers. He’s been a good fantasy producer of late, and the matchup is solid enough to expect more solid results this coming week.

Give me Tagovailoa next. I like him to bounce back this week and deliver a good fantasy performance.

I’d take Mahomes here if he ends up starting. The injury scares me, and the matchup isn’t all that great anyways.

Give me Nix next. I’d have ranked him higher if he hadn’t underperformed over the past couple weeks. 

Herbert, Stroud and Wilson are all close in my book. I’d give Herbert the edge because of his work over the past several weeks. Stroud goes above Wilson because of the offensive weapons at their disposal - if George Pickens ends up playing for Pittsburgh, I’d knock Wilson up a few pegs.

Purdy gets the edge over Wentz (if he ends up starting). I just don’t trust Purdy after his showings over the past several weeks, and the tough matchup only makes things worse. Wentz’s matchup is also tough, and having not seen him as a starter in the Chiefs’ offense, I wouldn’t want to play him if I didn’t have to.