Fantasy Football Week 16 D/ST Start/Sit: Bengals, Ravens, Steelers, Eagles, Lions

Wondering which defenses you can trust for Week 16 (aka the fantasy football semifinals)? This is the article for you! As always, let’s start by looking back at last week’s results, which were pretty good, although not quite ideal. On the Start side, the Commanders came through with a decent seven-point outing, but the Jets finished with a disappointing three points. My Sits were more successful. The Steelers (four points) and 49ers (three points) both finished well outside the top-20 defenses, but they were still nothing compared to the Lions, who dropped a week-losing -12 points, one of the worst defensive outings all season. 

Heading into Week 16, we once again have all 32 teams active with no byes, which means plenty of options. Hopefully I can take advantage by once again smashing on the Sit side and adding in a couple of big wins from the Starts. Let’s get started!

For more help with your toughest Start/Sit decisions, check out FantasySP’s NFL Start/Sit tool!

Fantasy Football Defenses To Start Week 16

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns

I always start this article by featuring one team from my weekly defense streaming options breakdown. The other three teams listed in that article (the Packers, Falcons, and Cardinals) are still excellent options, but the Bengals stand out as being in a smash spot and are still projected to be started in just 43% of leagues. 

Of course, the Bengals’ defense is one of the worst in the league. They have given up the second-most points per game, the fifth-most yards per game, and the fourth-highest EPA per play of any team. But when we’re looking to score defensive fantasy points, matchup is simply far more important than defensive strength, and this is a dream matchup.

He has played a very small sample of snaps so far this season, but it’s impossible to overstate how bad Dorian Thompson-Robinson (who was announced as the Browns’ Week 16 starter) has been. He has averaged 2.9 yards per pass attempt, over a yard short of the next-worst passer with at least 30 dropbacks (Drew Lock at 4.6). His 7.1% turnover-worthy-play rate makes even teammate Jameis Winston (5.2%) look like a safe passer. He also ranks dead last in EPA per play (-0.476) and second-to-last in completion percentage vs. expected (-17.1%). 

The one place where DTR hasn’t been arguably the league’s worst QB is sacks, as he has taken just one so far this season. Normally, this would be an issue for a streaming defense, but Thompson-Robinson has been so awful it simply doesn’t matter. If he gets benched halfway through the game, we’ll get Jameis Winston in catch-up mode, which should mean even more chances for interceptions. 

Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

At first glance, this isn’t a great spot. The Ravens’ defense has struggled this season, while the Steelers have played the kind of solid football that doesn’t lend itself to defensive fantasy points. However, things are trending in the right direction for Baltimore to have a solid outing this week. 

For one, the Ravens have been playing slightly better defense in recent weeks. For the season, they rank 21st in EPA per play allowed; since Week 10, they’ve risen to 14th, slightly above average. More importantly, though, the Steelers’ offense is seemingly imploding without George Pickens, especially their passing game. Over the last two weeks, without their WR1, Pittsburgh’s offense ranks seventh-worst in EPA per play and second-worst in dropback success rate. 

The one potential issue is that, although they might not score many points, the Steelers have avoided mistakes all season. Russell Wilson has the lowest turnover-worthy-play rate among qualified quarterbacks at a pristine 1.1%. His 8.2% sack rate is above average, but it’s still nothing terrible. However, in a game where Pittsburgh will almost certainly be playing from behind, we might see the bad side of Danger-Russ, especially without his top target. I like the Ravens to dominate their division rivals this week and provide at least a decent fantasy outing.

Fantasy Football Defenses To Sit Week 16

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

Let’s switch straight to the other side of this AFC North matchup, where I don’t think the Steelers’ defense can be trusted. Yes, they have been one of the best defenses in the league this season, and they will be getting T.J. Watt back. But great offense beats great defense, and the Ravens’ offense has been firing on all cylinders all season. 

Baltimore is scoring 29.9 points per game on a league-leading 424 yards. They also rank first in success rate and second in EPA per play. They have the fifth-lowest turnover rate in the NFL, and Lamar Jackson takes just 1.5 sacks per game. There’s simply no defense that should be started against Baltimore at this point, especially not on the road. If you are one of the 50% of managers with the Steelers currently in your starting lineup, it’s time to start looking elsewhere. 

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders

The Eagles’ defense has been absolutely red-hot in recent weeks, giving up just 15.3 points per game over their last six outings. I can understand why well over 60% of fantasy football managers are still planning to start them for their Week 16 trip to Washington … but I can’t get behind it.

Even the best defenses in the league are susceptible to bad matchups, and this is a rough one for the Eagles. The Commanders’ offense ranks third in EPA per play, sixth in points per game, and fifth in yards per game. They end drives with turnovers at the third-lowest rate in the league, mostly because Jayden Daniels has been incredibly mistake-free for a rookie with just a 1.5% turnover-worthy-play rate. Daniels does take a fair few sacks (2.6 per game), but that’s not enough to make this matchup appealing. The Eagles are not a top-12 defensive option for this week, and there are almost certainly better options on every single waiver wire … but make sure not to drop Philly’s defense, as they get the Cooper Rush Cowboys next week for the fantasy football finals.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears 

Believe it or not, this pick isn’t actually all about the matchup. The Bears have been a good matchup for opposing defenses all season, thanks mostly to Caleb Williams’ absurd 4.1 sacks per game. 

However, the Lions’ defense is incredibly beat up. With the losses of DT Alim McNeil to a torn ACL and CB Calton Davis to a fractured jaw in Week 15, they are now missing nearly half of their Week 1 starting lineup, not to mention plenty of key backups (and backups to backups, in the case of the linebacker position). They kept it together for most of the season, but the cracks are finally starting to show through, as the Lions’ defense has scored seven or fewer fantasy points in each of their last four games. They have scored double-digit points in just one of the last seven contests. 

We also have a recent matchup between these two teams to consider. In Week 13, at home for a Thanksgiving Day game, the Lions managed just six fantasy points against the Bears — that was even with Caleb Williams taking another five sacks. Those sacks mean the Lions’ defense isn’t quite a must-bench, but I certainly wouldn’t feel comfortable starting them in a game where the Bears have a 20.5-point team total. Make sure you truly don’t have other options before rolling out Detroit this week.