Week 18 Fantasy Football QB Start/Sit: Russell Wilson, Michael Penix, Kyler Murray and More
Three quarterbacks to start and three to sit in the final week of the NFL season.
If you’re one of the few still playing fantasy football this week, you’re navigating a minefield of missing players. The Chiefs are sitting Patrick Mahomes and others; Philadelphia is resting some of their guys, including Saquon Barkley, who is 100 yards short of Eric Dickerson’s all-time single season rushing record.
There is still value to be found, though, and matchups become even more important than usual. If you’re without Josh Allen (who is going to start but quickly hit the bench so that he can uphold his consecutive starts streak), you’re better off finding the QB facing the Jaguars or Panthers rather than grabbing Mitchell Trubisky, Allen’s backup.
Let’s look at three quarterbacks to start and three to sit in the last week of the NFL regular season. I used stats from NFL.com and our FantasySP defensive fantasy rankings to help determine the best and worst matchups. I will reference those numbers often.
Start
Joe Flacco/Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
It’s unclear who will start at this point for the Colts. Richardson hasn’t practiced because of a back injury, and with Indianapolis out of the playoff hunt, it seems likely the team would play it safe and sit the second-year player again.
No matter who ends up playing, the matchup is right for the QB opposing Jacksonville to put up a nice stat line. The Jags have allowed the second-most yards per pass attempt and third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Jacksonville’s pass defense has looked OK the last two weeks, but don’t be fooled: they were facing Aidan O'Connell then Mason Rudolph.
If Richardson starts, his running makes him a high-level streamer. Flacco will have to rely on his passing if he plays; he won’t be scampering around the field like Richardson. With a sweet matchup, Flacco would still be an OK streamer.
Michael Penix, Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers
Penix has been OK in his first two starts: 37-62 passing (59.7%) for 425 yards (6.9 per attempt) with one touchdown and two interceptions. That’s slightly below-average play, but it’s passable for a rookie in his first two games (not counting five passes thrown in garbage time).
As is a theme here, the matchup is what gives Penix his fantasy value in Week 18. The Panthers have given up the sixth-most yards per pass attempt and the most fantasy points to quarterbacks. There aren’t many teams that even come close to offering the level of matchup that the Panthers do (and the Jaguars, for that matter).
Penix is a low-level streamer. There’s a low floor because of his inexperience, especially with the team needing to win for a chance at the playoffs; it wouldn’t be a major surprise to see Kirk Cousins come in to relieve the rookie if things go haywire early. Penix is worth considering if you’re without a good option, though.
Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals need to win and have both the Broncos and Dolphins lose for Cincinnati to make the playoffs; it’s a long shot. Their defense has again let the team down in 2024, this time undermining MVP-level numbers from Joe Burrow. The Bengals are near the middle in yards per pass attempt allowed, but they have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to QBs.
Wilson has had a few big games since taking over as the starter for Pittsburgh, and none was bigger than when these teams faced off in Week 13: 29-38 passing for 414 yards (10.9 per attempt!!!) with three touchdowns and an interception. Don’t expect another game like that, but Wilson is in position to put up some nice numbers and a solid fantasy score.
Wilson is a good streamer in the final week of the season in one of the only games that matters for both teams involved.
Sit
Drake Maye, New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
Maye has shown more than enough during his rookie season to prove that he’s a player to build around. He had a good game against Buffalo two weeks ago when these teams played, throwing for 261 yards with two touchdowns and an interception and adding 30 rushing yards.
The Bills are right in the middle in yards per pass attempt allowed, but they have given up the eighth-least fantasy points to quarterbacks. There is a question of who will be on the field for Buffalo, as they have the second seed locked up, but it’s hard to bet on a player simply because he might face backups.
Maye is questionable with a hand injury, but it’s reported that he will play. That adds one more negative to his ledger, as it leaves the chance Maye could leave the game if he aggravates that injury. There’s too much risk for me to recommend Maye this week.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers
Murray lost about half of 2022-23 recovering from a major knee injury, but he is playing close to his pre-injury form by most stats. Most important for his fantasy score, Murray has his second-most rushing yards in any season and has scored five times on the ground (tied for his second-highest total).
He has a tough matchup to finish the season, though, as the 49ers have allowed the fourth-least yards per pass attempt and the seventh-least fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Specific to Murray’s biggest fantasy strength, San Fran has given up the 10th-fewest rushing yards to QBs.
It’s tough to know what a game will look like when both teams are out of the playoff race, especially with neither fighting for draft position. It could look the same as a Week 8 contest, or some starters might sit and make things a little wonky. The numbers say to be leery of Murray, though some owners will start him regardless.
Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins
You might not realize that Miami has one of the best pass defenses in the league. They have allowed the second-fewest yards per pass attempt and the least fantasy points to quarterbacks. Their worst day came against these same Jets in Week 14, when Rodgers threw for 339 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions (Miami won 32-26 in overtime).
Rodgers acknowledged that this might be his last game in the NFL. He has only had three seasons with a completion percentage lower than his current 63%, and his 6.6 yards per attempt would be the lowest of his career. Both of those numbers are below average. Rodgers has only been a guy to trust in the right matchups.
Despite putting up big numbers the last time these teams played, Rodgers is more likely to have a slow day this time around. You can find a better fantasy option to finish the season.
