NFL Week 18 Games with Playoff Implications: Battles for Seeding and Final Playoff Spots, and the Vikings, Lions Fight for Top Seed

Games stop mattering for one or both teams in many games when we reach the last month of the season. It’s not meaningless for the players who get their chance to make an impression filling in for injured guys; it’s not meaningless for the kids who get to go see their first football game because tickets are cheaper. These games stop having any impact on the outcome of the season, though.

Draft position is the most important thing for over half the league at this point, as most of those squads have been slowly watching their season slip away until inevitably falling out of the playoff race. The draft IS the most important thing for some teams right now because at least it presents hope, something the Giants, Raiders, and others don’t currently possess.

Some teams are still playing for something this week, and that affects fantasy football as well as the situation taking place in real life. Most fantasy leagues end in Week 17 because teams rest guys the last week of the season or let young players get their first taste of real snaps. For those continuing through the final week, though, knowing which games matter might make a difference in your lineup decisions.

Let’s run through the games with playoff implications in Week 18 and what is on the line for the teams involved. I’ll mention every game that could affect playoff seeding, and teams fighting for top draft position will also be included in those discussions. I won’t include any game that only has draft implications, though.

Point spreads mentioned below are from ESPN and correct as of Thursday night (January 2).

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens

What’s on the line: Baltimore secures the AFC North and the No. 3 seed with a win or a Steelers loss or tie.

This is as easy as it gets: The Ravens are at home against one of the worst teams in the league and favored by 20.5 points. That’s not a typo. (Don’t lay money on the Baltimore/Tampa Bay 20-point teaser…just don’t do it.)

Cleveland is one of four teams tied for the least wins in the league, a whopping three. This is a must-lose game for the Browns to secure their best draft situation.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

What’s on the line: Pittsburgh can take the division and the third seed if they win and Baltimore loses. The Bengals can earn the seventh seed if they win and both the Broncos and Dolphins lose.

Cincinnati is favored by 2.5 points despite this game taking place in Pittsburgh, a sign that the Bengals are seen as a noticeably better team right now. Even if they win, the Bengals need a ton of help, as both the Broncos and Dolphins are favored in their games (which we’ll talk about more).

The monkey wrench for the Steelers is that if they lose and the Chargers win, LA will take the fifth seed and bump Pittsburgh to sixth. Even if the Ravens win on Saturday afternoon, the Steelers will still have something to play for in the second game of the day, surely part of the NFL’s thinking in their scheduling.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders

What’s on the line: Los Angeles can move up to the No. 5 seed if they win and the Steelers lose.

Speaking of those Chargers, the fifth seed is a big deal because it’s the difference between going to Houston in the first round or probably heading to Baltimore.

When going through the playoff picture earlier this week, I used the line, “I can’t properly express how much more I’d rather face the Texans than the Ravens while only using PG language.” (I thought it was funny, so why not get a little more mileage out of it?)

While the Steelers are underdogs against the Bengals, the Chargers are unsurprisingly favorites by four points. That seems low, but the game is in Vegas; it would probably be closer to a 10-point advantage if the game were in LA. (I like that Chargers line at just -4. I like it a little too much…)

The Raiders were 2-12 before winning their past two games against the Jaguars and Saints. That means instead of being in position for the top pick, they are one of five teams with four wins. One more loss would help their draft cause.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets

What’s on the line: Miami will be the No. 7 seed if they win and the Broncos lose to Kansas City.

It’s unclear if Tua Tagovailoa will be able to play in this game. He missed Week 17 with a hip injury; that was fine because they were playing against the hapless Browns. While the Jets aren’t a good team, they have a strong enough defense and OK enough offense to beat Tyler Huntley.

The Jets are another team in the four-win group who could be looking for a quarterback in the draft. It would behoove them to fall to Miami, though Aaron Rodgers certainly isn’t thinking that way.

The Dolphins are currently one-point favorites; that will probably swing one way or the other once Tua’s status is clarified.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos

What’s on the line: Denver gets the No. 7 seed if they win this game.

The Broncos also would make the playoffs if both the Dolphins and Bengals either tied or lost, but let’s not overthink this one: Denver is trying to win this game to earn their spot in the postseason.

With the expectation that the Chiefs will sit most of their starters, the Broncos are 10.5-point favorites.

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons

What’s on the line: Atlanta can win the NFC South if they beat the Panthers and Tampa Bay loses to the Saints.

The Falcons are favored by 7.5 points at home. That gives Atlanta some hope, but the Bucs are also playing at home, and they are favored by 13.5 points over the lowly Saints. New Orleans lost their past two games by a combined score of 59-10, first getting shut out by the Packers then falling to the Raiders last Sunday 25-10.

The Panthers are one of the 10 teams with five or fewer losses and could see their draft spot bounce around inside the top 10 depending on how the other basement teams fare. This is mostly about the Falcons making their final push.

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

What’s on the line: Tampa can clinch the NFC South with a win, an Atlanta loss, or a tie by either team.

On the opposite side of the coin from the Falcons, the Bucs control their own destiny with a few paths to the playoffs. They can also move into the No. 3 seed if they beat the Saints and the Rams lose to the Seahawks.

Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams

What’s on the line: Los Angeles can secure the third seed with a victory, a Bucs loss, or a tie by either team.

Speaking of those NFC West rivals, LA locked up the division by the end of Week 17 thanks to tiebreakers in their favor, meaning this game has no division implications. It’s sad, really: Vikings/Lions is the only game we have that will determine a division winner. We could have used this one too.

Instead, Seattle doesn’t have anything to play for, while the Rams can lock into a better spot. Dropping to No. 4 would be something of a disaster because the team that ends up there will play the loser of the Minnesota/Detroit game in the first round, a team who will have a 14-3 record.

Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers

What’s on the line: Washington and Green Bay will be the sixth and seventh seeds in some order.

Both teams are 11-5, but the Commanders hold the tiebreaker over the Packers. Green Bay needs to hope for a little help to jump ahead. Getting to the No. 6 spot is a big deal because that team will travel to play either the Rams or Buccaneers in the first round while the last-seeded team must go to Philadelphia.

Washington is a six-point favorite in Dallas, and Green Bay is a 10-point favorite over the Bears. The Pack has a good chance to top their division rivals in Chicago, but they need the Cowboys’ backup quarterback to come up big against the Commanders.

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions

What’s on the line: The winner of this game is the top seed in the NFC. The loser will be the fifth seed and travel on the road in the first round of the playoffs.

What better place to end than where the NFL season itself will finish up. The winner here gets a bye in the first round, the best gift any team can receive if they hope to make a Super Bowl run. The benefits can’t be overstated.

The loser will play on the road against either the Rams, Bucs, or Falcons in the first round. While the NFC North team will be favored, it’s never a sure thing when traveling on the road in a one-game playoff.

The Lions are favored by three points, the mark given to the home team by sportsbooks when the teams are seen as equal.