Wild Card Round Fantasy Football QB Start/Sit: Lamar Jackson, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, Bo Nix and More
A look at each starting quarterback in action during the first round of the playoffs and their outlook from a fantasy perspective.
Fantasy football is different when the NFL playoffs start. Some owners play only Daily Fantasy Sports, and others play DFS/fantasy hybrid contests that go both week-to-week and through the full postseason.
What doesn’t change is that some players are set up to succeed based on their matchups while others are likely to struggle against tough defenses. The number of players to choose from is lower, but the headaches and handwringing happen just the same.
Let’s look at the 12 quarterbacks in action this week and who has the best and worst outlooks. I used stats from NFL.com and our FantasySP defensive fantasy rankings and will reference those numbers often. Fantasy scores and rankings are from FantasyPros.
Must-Start Players
- Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos
- Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers
- Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
These are the top players on any given week regardless of opponent because they all run as well as they pass, particularly from a fantasy perspective. The matchup favors Daniels, while Allen has the toughest game on paper. I can’t argue with any of these four players in DFS or any format.
One note: Hurts missed the final two games after suffering a concussion, and his status is a little murky. Hurts will probably play, but double-check that before locking him in. There’s also a little risk of re-injury given the nature of concussions; I like him the least from this group.
Good Matchups
Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Rams
Darnold might actually have the best matchup of the week: LA allowed the sixth-most yards per pass attempt and eighth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. No team gave up passing yards more regularly among the playoff teams than the Rams.
Darnold earned himself tens of millions of dollars this season. His 66.2% completion rate is nearly five percentage points higher than any other season of his career, and his 7.9 yards per attempt are well above average and rank ninth in the league. Darnold’s 35 touchdowns rank fifth.
Darnold finished as QB9, and now he has a top-10 matchup. That points toward a possible big game. When these teams faced off in Week 8, Darnold had 240 yards on 9.6 per attempt with two touchdowns and no interceptions.
Darnold is a prime target if you don’t want to spend big on one of the top guys in DFS. This could be a case in which Darnold has a big game and the Vikings take care of business, making some people believe in them again.
Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens were operating as something close to the worst pass defense in the league at the beginning of the year. Things came together, and they improved a little bit, finishing with the 12th-most yards per pass attempt allowed and ninth-most fantasy points per game given up to quarterbacks.
Wilson had some highs, especially right when he took over the starting role. Most importantly for the team, Pittsburgh won their first four games with Wilson and six of their first seven. Then they finished by losing four in a row to close the season and fall to the sixth seed, where a rematch with the Ravens awaits.
Wilson had a modest performance when these teams played in Baltimore three weeks ago: 217 yards on 6.6 per attempt, two touchdowns, and one interception. His 27 rushing yards were a nice little bump for his fantasy score.
Wilson is a middling fantasy option. The matchup might not be quite as good as it looks, and Wilson hasn’t topped those 217 yards since December 1, so it’s best to not expect a huge game.
Tough Matchups
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans
This one might be a defensive struggle. We’ll touch on the Chargers more in a moment, but Houston has been carried most of the season by their defense. They ended up in the middle in terms of fantasy points given up to quarterbacks, but the Texans allowed the sixth-least yards per pass attempt.
Herbert didn’t hit the big volume numbers of 2020-22, but he was as efficient as ever, averaging a career-high 7.7 yards per pass attempt. He also had 23 touchdowns and just three interceptions, a phenomenal rate. He was QB12, a fine mark, but not that of a must-start player.
With a tough matchup, I’m not trusting Herbert in the opening round. There are much better matchups and higher-level players available.
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles
This is all about the terrible matchup: Philly allowed the least yards per pass attempt by a full 0.7 yards. That’s about the same as the difference between the second-place Dolphins and the Cardinals, who are in the top 10 in MOST yards per attempt allowed. The Eagles make life tough on every quarterback.
At first glance, it looks like Love took a step back from last season because his volume numbers are all down. He missed two full games and much of Week 18, though, and shows better efficiency. Love averaged 8.0 yards per attempt this year after finishing at 7.2 in 2023.
When these teams played in Brazil in Week 1, Love had a good day, with 260 yards on 7.6 per attempt, two touchdowns, and one interception. That was over four months ago, though, and the Eagles have turned into a buzzsaw in the meantime.
Love could put up another decent performance, but there’s also a low floor. He sustained a hand injury in Week 18, and while it’s unlikely to be a major factor, it is one more thing against him. You can find a better player in the Wild Card Round.
Bo Nix, Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills
Nix found a stride during the season and put up some huge fantasy games. He scored at least 20 fantasy points seven times and over 28 three times. His rushing was a big part of that, as Nix had 430 yards (25.3 per game) on the ground and four touchdowns.
Nix also threw for 29 touchdowns with just 12 interceptions; that’s a strong performance for anyone, let alone a rookie. I was down on Nix and thought Denver would crumble around him, one of my worst preseason predictions. While the defense has led the way, Nix has been a steady force.
The Bills are right in the middle in yards per pass attempt allowed, but they gave up the eight-least fantasy points to QBs. Specific to Nix’s advantage running, Buffalo has held quarterbacks to the eight-least rushing yards. This is going to be a tough one for the rookie.
Nix isn’t a good fantasy option this week. He is interesting in the right matchups, but testing the Bills in the playoffs isn’t a great strategy.
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers gave up the fourth-least yards per pass attempt and 12th-least fantasy points per game to QBs. This team has been driven by their defense, allowing the least points this year. LA finally has a unit to match their supremely talented passer.
Speaking of talented quarterbacks, Stroud burst onto the scene as a rookie, both showing his own prowess and simultaneously burying Bryce Young, who was taken one pick ahead of Stroud and struggled mightily.
Things looked much different in Year 2: Despite completing 17 more passes than in 2023, Stroud had nearly 400 less passing yards. That dropped his yards-per-pass average from 8.2 to 7.0. That latter number is average, but it’s not the star level Houston fans were expecting. Stroud also threw 12 interceptions after just five last season, an unsustainable rate that normalized itself.
Stroud’s modest season combined with LA’s great defense means the Houston quarterback is likely to struggle to put up big stats. Stroud has one of the worst outlooks of the week.
Somewhere in the Middle
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Washington Commanders
Mayfield was QB4 this season. The biggest reason for his spike in points is Mayfield’s increased running: after previously topping out at 165 rushing yards, he accumulated 378 this season and tied his career high with three TDs.
Add in his most passing yards (4,500 on 7.9 yards per attempt) and touchdowns (41, tied for second-most in the league), and it was a season worthy of a former top overall pick. There’s going to be a lot of debate this offseason around where Mayfield fits in the quarterback hierarchy, both in fantasy and real football.
The Commanders might belong among the tough matchups; I was surprised to find that Washington allowed the 12th-least yards per pass attempt and seventh-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. There won’t be anything easy about going after the Commanders.
These teams faced off way back in Week 1, a game the Bucs won 37-20. Mayfield had 289 passing yards on 9.6 yards per attempt with four touchdowns and no interceptions. He added 21 rushing yards, right at his season average.
He’s unlikely to have a game that good again, but he could still put up a good stat line against a team who can score points and push Tampa to keep throwing.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams vs. Minnesota Vikings
These teams played in Week 8, a 30-20 Rams victory. That’s one of just three losses for Minnesota; the other two came against the No. 1 seed in the NFC, Detroit. That means something, especially knowing the upside the Rams possess on offense.
The Vikings have a stout defense, allowing the 13th-least yards per pass attempt and fourth-least fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They are good-not-great, though, and could see Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp approach their combined 12 receptions, 157 yards, and one touchdown (Kupp) from the previous meeting.
Stafford played much like himself this season, matching his career number in yards per attempt and doing a little better in completion percentage. That works out to a decent fantasy player you can trust in the right situation.
This is a matchup in the middle. When they played in Week 8, Stafford excelled, with 279 yards, four touchdowns, and an interception. Don’t count on him putting up numbers quite that good again, but he has shown he can have success against this team.
Stafford would be fine as a streamer during the season, but you can find a better option during the first round of the playoffs.
Full Wild Card Round QB Rankings
- Jayden Daniels, WSH
- Lamar Jackson, BAL
- Josh Allen, BUF
- Jalen Hurts, PHI
- Sam Darnold, MIN
- Baker Mayfield, TB
- Matthew Stafford, LAR
- Russell Wilson, PIT
- Jordan Love, GB
- Bo Nix, DEN
- Justin Herbert, LAC
- C.J. Stroud, HOU
