Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Start/Sit Divisional Round: Nico Collins vs. Jameson Williams, DeVonta Smith vs. Khalil Shakir, Cooper Kupp vs. Marquise Brown

Welcome back to this weekly playoff breakdown of popular wide receiver Start/Sit decisions from the FantasySP Start/Sit Tool. Last week, I went three for three in picking the right player … but two of my three picks scored fewer than 4.0 Half-PPR points, so it’s hard to chalk them up as “wins.” With that in mind, this week’s picks will focus more on higher-end receivers. If you’re looking for deeper receiver plays, check out my Divisional Round Sleepers article. Without further ado, let’s get started!

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Nico Collins vs. Jameson Williams

This question is one that has troubled fantasy managers for years: Is the WR1 on a bad offense better than the WR2 on an elite offense? Collins is essentially the Texans’ entire passing game at this point, coming off a game in which he accounted for nearly 50% of their passing yards. Jameson, meanwhile, is behind a target monster in Amon-Ra St. Brown and also has to compete with two volume-heavy running backs and a solid tight end in Sam LaPorta. However, the Lions’ team total is literally more than twice as high as the Texans’, a massive 33.5 vs. a piddly 16.5. That leaves us with a dilemma. It’s a “big piece of a small pie vs. a small piece of a big pie” situation. 

While Williams has had an impressive breakout year with plenty of highlight plays, I still think Collins is the superior talent. He ranks second among all WRs with a massive 92.0 PFF Receiving Grade and third with an elite 2.94 yards per route run. However, Jameson has the advantage in matchup, as the Chiefs were the second-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for receivers out wide, while the Commanders were essentially average. At the end of the day, however, I have to back the receiver with both projected volume and talent on his side, and that’s Collins. Williams could certainly outscore him with just a massive play or two, but Nico has a comparable ceiling and a much more reliable floor.

Start: Nico Collins 

DeVonta Smith vs. Khalil Shakir

These are two talented receivers who both struggled to find consistency in terms of fantasy scoring this year. For Smith, the issue was volume, as the Eagles led the league in rush rate. This continued into the Wild Card Round, as Smith finished with just 7.5 Half-PPR points on four targets as Jalen Hurts attempted a measly 21 passes. For Shakir, the issue was role, as the Bills utilized a WR-by-committee approach. This issue, too, was present in the Wild Card Round: Shakir did lead the Bills in route participation rate, but he was still at an uninspiring 59%. He did catch all of his team-high six targets, but a minuscule 1.8 ADOT meant he finished with just 9.1 points. 

For this week, we can expect both receivers to continue to face more of the same issues. The Eagles are six-point favorites against the Rams, so they will likely continue to ride Saquon Barkley as long as possible. And the Bills have no reason to shift away from the WR usage that has been working for them in their long-anticipated showdown with the Ravens. Smith has the advantage in terms of matchup with an exploitable Rams secondary, but that won’t matter if the Eagles focus on the Rams’ also-exploitable run defense. 

With that said, I still have to give the nod to Smith. At the end of the day, I would rather back the receiver who will at least be out there on every play. If the Rams can keep things close or the Eagles just decide to cut loose, Smith will be involved. We know that the Bills can have a massive game, including through the air, without Shakir being involved. His tiny ADOT from last week is also concerning — with everyone healthy, he may return to more of a gadget role in Buffalo’s offense. Both are valid high-ceiling/low-floor options, but I would rather have DeVonta in my lineups.

Start: DeVonta Smith

Cooper Kupp vs. Marquise Brown

While the previous two questions presented some easily comparable options with clear pros and cons, these two players are both surrounded by question marks. Kupp started the season hot (well, he started it injured, but after he returned, he was hot) but cooled off dramatically down the stretch. Last week, he posted just a 55% route participation rate, running five fewer routes than Demarcus Robinson. He saw only one target, although he did make an impressive catch for 29 yards. Is he injured, or just washed at 31 years old? Does it even matter which, if neither is likely to change at this point?

Brown, meanwhile, missed essentially the entirety of his first season in Kansas City with a shoulder injury. He returned for Weeks 16 and 17 before resting with the rest of KC’s starters in Week 18, but he never played an every-down role. However, he absolutely dominated on a per-route basis, with an absurd 43% target per route run rate. Once again, we are left with questions. Was Brown just being eased in, or was his 51% participation rate in Week 17 the role the Chiefs want him to play even at full health? Can he maintain his elite per-route numbers over a larger sample?

However, out of these two sets of questions, I know which I would rather lean into. With Brown, the worst-case scenario is that he stays at around a 50% route participation rate, and his target-earning slows down … that would leave him essentially where Kupp is right now. If he keeps earning targets and his role expands, Hollywood could be a legit fantasy WR1. Kupp could theoretically get fully healthy (if we assume he is injured) and provide a vintage dominant performance, but that seems far less likely. He also has a brutal matchup, as the Eagles’ defense shut down opposing receivers over the second half of the season. Put it all together, and this question is a no-brainer.

Start: Marquise Brown  

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.