Fantasy Football Sleepers for the Divisional Round: Justice Hill, Demarcus Robinson, Dalton Schultz

We have reached the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs! For my money, this is the best week of football in the entire year … usually. This year, that might not be the case, as three of the four games have spreads of six points or larger. From a fantasy perspective, there are also some disappointingly low game totals. That makes my job harder in this article, as I am here to find the top fantasy football sleepers at every position for the Divisional Round. Just like last week (and even more so), these sleepers will be particularly deep due to the lack of games on the slate. With that in mind, let’s get started! 

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Divisional Round Fantasy Football Sleepers 

Quarterback 

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

You read that right; I’m calling Patrick Mahomes II, arguably the most talented quarterback to ever pick up a football, a sleeper. Before you contact the Better Business Bureau to accuse me of false advertisement, consider that Mahomes is the QB6 out of eight starting quarterbacks in consensus rankings for this week. This isn’t that surprising, given that the two-time MVP finished the season as just the fantasy QB11. The days of high-flying offenses and deep bombs are gone; the 2024 Chiefs won games with a combination of defense, methodical marches down the field, and devil magic. Heading into a tough matchup with the Texans’ defense, it’s not surprising that expectations for Mahomes aren’t high.

However, I have faith in Mahomes to provide a decent fantasy outing. For one, we all know that he and the Chiefs hit another gear in the playoffs — he averages 29 rushing yards per game in his playoff career compared to 20 yards per game in the regular season. For another, their offense was already trending in the right direction before the regular season ended. Adding Hollywood Brown as another weapon (and arguably the best healthy receiver on their whole roster) gave Kansas City’s offense a whole new dimension. In the two games where Brown appeared, even though he played a limited role, Mahomes scored 23.7 and 26 fantasy points. Those were two of just four weeks in which he surpassed 20 points all season. Now, with their three-peat on the line and Brown fully integrated, I expect Mahomes to come through for fantasy investors on Saturday.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

I’m not going to lie, I don’t feel as good about this pick as I did about Mahomes. But that’s the whole thing about playoff fantasy: Options are limited. With Mahomes off the board and the top five quarterbacks not exactly “sleepers,” the only quarterbacks left are Stafford and C.J. Stroud, who are the consensus bottom two QBs on this slate. Both were unproductive during the regular season, and both have tough matchups against the Eagles’ and Chiefs’ defenses, respcetively.

However, of the two, I like Stafford’s chances to produce a useable number of fantasy points more. For one, he’s simply a better player than Stroud, and that matters a lot when comparing two pocket-passing quarterbacks. For another, although his matchup with the Eagles is worse on paper (Philadelphia was arguably the worst opponent for fantasy QBs, while KC was slightly below average), I have more faith in Sean McVay’s ability to find some weakness against a pair of rookie corners than Bobby Slowik against Steve Spagnuolo. If all else fails, I trust Stafford to give Puka Nacua a chance to make some plays — hopefully Nacua makes enough to help his QB score some points.

Running Back

Ty Johnson, Buffalo Bills

I highlighted Johnson last week, and it worked great, so I might as well go back to the well this week. Of course, Johnson is less of a sleeper coming off a game in which he scored 14.0 Half-PPR points thanks mostly to a highlight-reel TD catch, but we have to take what we can get. He’s still ranked outside the top 10 RBs in consensus rankings, an impressive feat with just eight teams on the slate. 

As for why I like Johnson, the reason is simple. Especially with rookie RB Ray Davis sidelined by a concussion, he sees very solid usage in the Bills’ offense. Last week, with Davis exiting early, Johnson finished with a 43% snap share, nine rushing attempts, and a 44% route participation rate. If anything, his passing-down-heavy workload will increase in a game that should be closer than the Bills’ rout of the Broncos. He might not have the highlight of the week again, but Johnson should at least catch a few passes, making him a decent play in PPR formats.

Justice Hill, Baltimore Ravens

Once again, I’m going straight back to the well on a back I highlighted last week who came through with a receiving touchdown. In fact, Hill’s usage was shockingly similar to Johnson’s. He played a 40% snap share, carried the ball six times, and posted an excellent 54% route participation rate. 

However, Hill actually outpaced Johnson in targets, posting a very solid 19% target share (just four targets, as the Ravens didn’t have to throw much). Hill will also benefit from the same theoretically more competitive game script as Johnson — we’ve seen him easily outsnap Derrick Henry on the rare occasions where Baltimore falls behind. Hill also gets a huge boost due to this matchup in particular, as the Bills led the league in terms of receiving yards per game given up to opposing running backs. Especially in PPR formats, but even in Standard, Hill is worth considering this week.

Wide Receiver 

Demarcus Robinson, Los Angeles Rams

It didn’t turn into much production (one catch for 23 yards on two targets), but Robinson served as the Rams’ WR2 in the Wild Card Round. At this point, Cooper Kupp is either injured or officially washed. He posted just a 55% route participation rate against the Vikings; Robinson was up at 72%. 

During the season, a 72% route participation rate wouldn’t be too exciting, but with the sheer amount of playoff teams using a WR-by-committee approach, that actually ranked Robinson seventh among receivers whose teams survived to the Divisional Round. This doesn’t count the Lions and Chiefs, who were on bye, but they will likely add only three more WRs (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Xavier Worthy) with higher route participation rates than we just saw from Robinson. That makes him, at least in terms of route participation, the 11th-most-appealing WR on the slate — he is ranked as the consensus WR19. His matchup isn’t great, but he has an excellent quarterback and should be playing from behind. Hopefully that all comes together for him to provide a decent fantasy outing.

Tylan Wallace, Baltimore Ravens

I listed Wallace last week under the assumption that he, not Nelson Agholor, as was the consensus prediction, would serve as the Ravens’ WR2 with Zay Flowers sidelined. That part of the prediction was solid, as Wallace posted a 54% route participation rate to Agholor’s 35% and saw twice as many targets. The issue is that “twice as many targets” was just two, and a 54% participation rate really isn’t that good. The Ravens leaned more on their two talented receiving tight ends to make up for Flowers’ absence than their receivers.

With that said, I’m willing to give Wallace another chance this week (assuming Flowers is once again out). There’s a chance Baltimore will have to use more two and three-receiver sets against a more threatening opponent than the Bills. Even if they don’t, a 54% route participation rate as Lamar Jackson’s WR2 is nothing to turn our noses up at with this few teams in action. Wallace is ranked all the way down as the WR26 in consensus rankings, behind names like Jahan Dotson, Mack Hollins, Robert Woods, and, once again, Agholor. I like him more than all of those players, so he gets the nod as a sleeper pick. 

Tight End

Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans

Once again, I may be stretching the definition of “sleeper” here. But Schultz is ranked as the TE8 for a week with only eight teams in action — I would argue that counts. Regardless of whether he is technically a sleeper, Schultz should outperform consensus expectations this week. For one, he was the Texans’ second most-involved pass-catcher in the Wild Card round. He posted a 74% route participation rate, trailing only Nico Collins. His four targets (12% share) were third on the team behind Collins and John Metchie. 

If anything, Schultz’s role should only expand this week with rookie TE Cade Stover (who saw four targets of his own on 13 routes last week) on IR. That expanded role should turn into more points than usual, as the Chiefs lead the league with over 70 receiving yards per game allowed to opposing tight ends. In a game where the Texans are projected to be playing from way behind, Schultz should run plenty of routes against the weakest TE defense in the league. What’s not to like?

Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams

Prior to his early departure from the game with a chest injury, Tyler Higbee was a key part of the Rams’ offense in the Wild Card round. His final reception came on the Rams’ final offensive play of the first quarter. At that point, he led the team with five targets for a massive 42% target share (small sample size alert!). Since I’ve been relying on them all article, I should also note that he posted an elite 83% route participation rate during that quarter. 

Higbee was actually transported to the hospital for his injury but is expected to play on Sunday. Assuming he is good to go, he should jump right back in as a key cog in this Rams offense and be a very solid under-the-radar TE option. 

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.