Divisional Round Fantasy Football Defense Rankings

Wondering which defense you can trust in playoff fantasy football or DFS this week? Unless you have the Chiefs, the answer is probably none of them! But if you’ve still got a DST spot to fill, read on for my fantasy football defense rankings for the Divisional Round. 

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Divisional Round Fantasy Football Defense Rankings

Tier 1: The Chiefs

1. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans

If you want proof that the NFL is an offensive league, consider this: The Texans are the only team remaining in the playoffs that ranked below average in offensive EPA per play during the regular season. Not only did Houston rank below average for the season, they finished on a downturn, ranking 25th in EPA per play from Week 10 onward, right between the Raiders and the Titans. They have an embarrassingly low 16.5-point team total for this week, the lowest of any team. For their part, the Chiefs’ defense is also one of the best in the league, which allows them to separate further as clearly the top option for this week. 

Tier 2: Other Big Favorites

2. Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams

While the Texans’ 16.5-point total is the lowest of this round, the Rams aren’t far behind at 18.5. That number has less to do with offensive incompetence, as the Rams were at least decent for most of the year (especially with Puka Nacua healthy). Instead, it has everything to do with this Eagles defense, which became an absolute wrecking ball over the second half of the season. From Week 10 onward, Philadelphia easily led all defenses with -0.144 EPA per play allowed — no other team reached even -0.100 over that span. With that said, this still isn’t an ideal spot. Sacks and turnovers are the biggest drivers of defensive fantasy scoring, and the Rams were great at avoiding both during the regular season. The Eagles themselves were good at forcing turnovers but actually below average in terms of sack rate. But in the playoffs with no bad offenses left to pick on, we will take what we can get, and Philadelphia is clearly the second-best option available. 

3. Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders

Three games on this slate have spreads of six points or more. We’ve already featured the favored teams in two of those games, and now it’s time for the third. The Lions are massive 8.5-point favorites, but the Commanders are still projected to score a respectable 22.5 points. Once again, Washington’s offense is not one we would normally want to target. If we’re looking for reasons to believe, Jayden Daniels’ 8.92% sack rate is the second-highest of quarterbacks still remaining in the playoffs. But the rookie was otherwise excellent, leading an offense that ranked fourth in EPA per play. We have to hope that the Lions’ offense can get a big lead early, allowing their wounded defense to key in on the pass and rack up some sacks on Daniels. 

Tier 3: If You Have To

4. Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs

I’ll be honest, I don’t feel good about ranking the Texans here. Backing a defense against playoff Patrick Mahomes, especially given that Houston is an 8.5-point underdog, feels like a terrible idea. But there aren’t any better options. At the very least, Houston’s defense is a solid unit. Last week, they carried their team to a win by holding the Chargers to just 12 points. They ranked sixth in EPA per play both for the whole regular season and from Week 10 onward. Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ offense wasn’t hugely explosive for most of the season. They did pick it up near the end of the year, which is scary, but they mostly seemed content to grind teams to dust and win late in the game with devil magic. If they stick to that strategy this week, the Texans’ defense may be able to escape with a respectable fantasy outing. 

5. Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles

Let’s start with the bad: The Rams’ defense is not good, and the Eagles’ offense is elite. Pretty much the only positive stat I can find for this pick is that Jalen Hurts has the highest sack rate of any Divisional Round starting quarterback at 9.52%. If the Rams can somehow get out to an early lead, their young defense might be able to rack up some sacks and cause some chaos as Hurts is forced to drop back. The Eagles, similarly to the Chiefs, also played a fairly conservative, run-heavy style of offense for most of the season. At the very least, that gives us hope that LA won’t get absolutely destroyed and provide a negative outing. 

6. Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills

7. Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens

Honestly, I view these two defenses as essentially interchangeable. They both were good during the regular season, but great offense beats great defense. In case you have been living under a rock, this matchup will feature two great offenses, not to mention two MVP-worthy quarterbacks. The Ravens get a slight edge because Buffalo’s offense is more of a one-man show than Baltimore’s, but both of these units will almost certainly give up plenty of points on Sunday. 

Tier 5: Lol

8. Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions

Lol