Divisional Round Fantasy Football Running Back Who Should I Start? Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Kyren Williams, Justice Hill and James Cook

DFS for Sunday’s games is an exercise in sifting through gems. You know when you want everything, but you have to pick only a few things? That’s what it looks like on Sunday. Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Puka Nacua, Mark Andrews; all these players are in action.

That means making the right decision between two star players is imperative because there aren’t a plethora of other guys to choose from the way there are in a normal week. Each individual choice is tougher with just four teams in action.

Let’s look at some of the running back head-to-head decisions that are showing up most on our FantasySP “Who Should I Start?” tool for Sunday. I used stats from NFL.com and our FantasySP defensive fantasy rankings and will reference those numbers often.

Derrick Henry or Saquon Barkley?

These two both signed sizeable free agent contracts in the offseason and paid immediate dividends. Barkley ran for over 2,000 yards (in 16 games) and scored 13 touchdowns. He added another 278 yards and two touchdowns in the passing game.

While Barkley is a young star, Henry is “old” (just turned 31) and was supposed to have been declining for several years. Instead, he had over 2,000 total yards and 18 touchdowns, giving Barkley a run for his money as best running back of the year.

Henry faces the Bills in Buffalo in what is supposed to be a cold, snowy game. We usually think of those type of games leading toward more running, something pointing in Henry’s favor. Buffalo allowed the 13th-most yards per rush attempt and the eighth-most fantasy points per game to running backs.

The Rams were eighth in most yards per rush attempt allowed but just 21st in fantasy points given up to running backs. When Barkley faced the Rams a few months ago, though, he went crazy: 255 rushing yards on 26 attempts (9.8 per rush), two touchdowns, four catches, and 47 receiving yards.

Henry had his own big day against the Bills in Week 4, gaining 199 rushing yards with a touchdown and adding 10 receiving yards and another touchdown through the air. Both backs had huge previous games against their Sunday opponents; that doesn’t help us much.

Fantasy Advice

It’s hard to say who is the better play here. I could be persuaded either way. I’ll lean toward Barkley, as I expect him to be the best fantasy player of the week, but Henry is very close. It’s worth paying up for either guy.

Saquon Barkley or James Cook?

I just went through Barkley’s outlook, which looks like a high-level fantasy day. It will take a lot for Cook to match the Philadelphia star, though he might be able to approximate it. Cook tied for the league lead with 16 rushing touchdowns, though he only had about half as many rushing yards as Barkley. Cook had close to the same receiving production as Barkley, with 258 yards and two touchdowns.

Baltimore allowed the least yards per rush attempt and seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs this season. This is a tough matchup for Cook, and Josh Allen will probably handle most of the running when it gets to crunch time.

Barkley is clearly the better option head-to-head. If you’re paying a little less in DFS, it makes the choice a little tougher, but I’d rather just pay up for the superstar. Cook has the risk of a low floor, while Barkley seems to have the highest floor of any running back this week.

Fantasy Advice

Start Barkley over Cook (and every other back)

James Cook vs. Justice Hill

Under the same argument, I recommend paying up for Henry instead of Cook also. The Hill vs. Cook debate (or Henry, or Barkley, or any star back) is a matter of ceiling vs. value. You know what you’re going to get from the superstar back (in theory; anything can happen). It’s a risk to roll with a lesser-used guy in hopes of getting lucky.

If you’re saving money at running back, make sure you are spending it wisely elsewhere. It doesn’t make sense to go cheap at running back, then do it again at tight end, and again with your flex while leaving money on the table. Make smart budget decisions and save when you are going to use those savings on a top quarterback, for example.

Hill got about six touches per game, half coming on the ground and half from receptions (three PPR points is a nice little bump). He was very efficient, averaging 4.9 yards per carry and 9.1 yards per catch. It all added up to over 600 total yards and four touchdowns in 15 games.

The Bills are middling or worse against backs, offering the chance for Hill to maybe rack up some yards and/or score a touchdown. He ran four times for 18 yards when these teams played back in September, and he led the Ravens in receiving with six catches, 78 yards, and a touchdown.

Buffalo allowed the third-most receptions and the most receiving yards to running backs during the season. Only three teams gave up more receiving touchdowns. It was a rough go for the Bills in trying to stop backs in the passing game; that’s Hill’s best area.

Fantasy Advice

I like the idea of saving money on Hill rather than paying for Cook. Hill’s production is dependent on both the game and Henry, so it’s risky. The safer play is to go with Cook. If this is your second back spot or your flex, though, I’d be happy to save a little with Hill and splurge on QB.

With your RB1 spot, I still prefer paying up for one of the studs, Barkley or Henry. It’s too important to get star production from at least one back, and those guys are worth the price.

Derrick Henry vs. Kyren Williams

Barkley is my top back of the day and should be played over everyone else. Henry and Williams are battling for the second spot, with the veteran holding the advantage due to the matchup.

Williams is a fine fantasy player and will be a top-five fantasy pick at the position next season. Philadelphia isn’t a fun team to test, though. They allowed the ninth-least yards per rush attempt and second-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. Everyone is a risky fantasy play against the Eagles.

That puts Williams closer to the Cook level, though I prefer Williams over the Buffalo back. He’s just not on the top level with Henry.

Fantasy Advice

Start Henry over Williams