NFL Conference Championship Fantasy Football Preview

After a crazy set of divisional matchups, we have reached the Conference Championship Round of the NFL Playoffs. On the AFC side, we have a playoff rematch between Patrick Mahomes/the Chiefs and Josh Allen/the Bills. Hopefully, we get another classic. From the NFC, we have an all-East showdown between the Eagles and the Commanders. The Eagles have arguably the best overall roster left in the playoffs, but Jayden Daniels may already be the best QB in the conference. Let’s take an early look at the fantasy football implications of these two matchups.

Sync your league with the Fantasy Assistant to get rankings, waiver help, trade suggestions, optimal lineups, and more. Not sure Who You Should Start? We can help. Utilize our fantasy football trade analyzer to make sure you’re getting the best value.

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles

Early Lines: Eagles -6.0, Total 47.5

The Commanders and Eagles split their two in-season matchups, but Washington’s three-point win came in a game where Kenny Pickett was the Eagles’ primary quarterback. Saquon Barkley totaled 150 yards and two touchdowns on the ground in that one, and it was actually his less productive of two matchups with Washington — he racked up 146/2 on the ground and 52 receiving yards against them in Week 11. The Commanders will either need their defense to step up or Jayden Daniels to go nuclear to have a chance in this one. 

Commanders Fantasy Preview

Of course, Jayden Daniels always has a chance to go nuclear. His designed run rate has skyrocketed in the playoffs, giving an extra boost to his fantasy value. However, the Commanders’ running game overall was more effective last week — Brian Robinson got going for 77 yards and two TDs, while Austin Ekeler averaged nearly 8.0 yards on his six carries. Ekeler’s rushing role was reduced while Robinson’s expanded, but Ekeler led in route participation (41% to 22%) and targets (four to zero). This game script should favor Ekeler, so both Commanders RBs are viable options. In the receiving game, it’s all about Terry McLaurin. However, Dyami Brown has officially iced Olamide Zaccheaus to claim the team’s WR2 role, with 98 yards on eight targets and a 65% participation rate last week. Zach Ertz will also surely remain involved in his return to Philadelphia, especially in the red zone. 

Eagles Fantasy Preview

Through two playoff wins, Jalen Hurts has a grand total of 259 passing yards. Even with a huge rushing TD last week, he finished with a fairly mediocre 18.12 fantasy points. Unless the Commanders can get a decent lead, Philadelphia will almost certainly stick to a run-heavy gameplan, leading to another low-volume game for Hurts. This means he will need multiple rushing TDs to have a big outing … which is certainly possible. In case the stats I listed in the intro for this game didn’t make it clear, this is an absolutely great spot for Saquon Barkley. He should continue a dominant playoff run against a Commanders run defense that was just gashed by Jahmyr Gibbs. In the receiving game, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and (to a lesser extent) Dallas Goedert are all victims of the Eagles’ run-heavy approach. It’s hard to look past players this talented on a two-game slate, but their volume has been non-existent so far in the playoffs.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs

Early Lines: Chiefs -1.5, Total 47.5

To me, the Bills are the better football team in this matchup … but the Chiefs are better at winning football games. That may sound self-contradictory, but I stand by it. Any sort of measure of clutch performance shows that Patrick Mahomes and Co. always turn up in the big moments, but they haven't been as consistently productive as Buffalo this season. Still, the Bills will need to continue playing mistake-free football to finally walk out of Arrowhead with a playoff win.   

Bills Fantasy Preview

Josh Allen is an absolute fantasy machine, even more so in the playoffs. There’s not much more that needs to be said. Of course, him racking up rushing TDs means less to go around for Buffalo's RBs. Last week, Ray Davis scored a rushing TD of his own, but he played just five snaps (he did see four carries on those snaps). James Cook was the Bills' clear lead RB (17 carries and three targets), but Ty Johnson also saw five carries and barely trailed Cook in terms of routes. Cook is risky for a lead RB but obviously has huge potential, while Johnson is a viable pick in deeper PPR formats. Meanwhile, Khalil Shakir easily led Bills receivers with seven targets (32%) on a 65% route participation rate. No other Buffalo pass-catcher, WR or TE, posted higher than a 48% route participation rate on saw more than two targets. The Chiefs’ defense is weak against TEs, giving a boost to Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox (Knox ran one more route than Kincaid last week). But both Knox and Kincaid and each of Keon Coleman, Amari Cooper, Curtis Samuel, and Mack Hollins are risky options. 

Chiefs Fantasy Preview

Anyone (myself included) who expected Patrick Mahomes to step up his fantasy production in the playoffs was disappointed last week. He did set a season-high with seven rush attempts but totaled just 14 scoreless yards. Combine that with only 16 completed passes for 177 yards and one TD, and he actually posted his second-lowest fantasy score of an already underwhelming season. This carried over to his weapons in the receiving game … except Travis Kelce, who had a vintage game. But Xavier Worthy was the only Chiefs wide receiver to even catch a pass. If you’re looking for another KC receiver to play this week, the answer is Marquise Brown, who did tie Kelce for second on the team (behind Worthy) with a 71% route participation rate. No other player posted even a 50% participation rate, with DeAndre Hopkins (42%) and Noah Gray (36%) being the closest. In the backfield, Kareem Hunt once again had a slight edge over Isiah Pacheco (three more carries and one more route). Hunt is the better play for this week, but both are viable. Samaje Perine may even be worth considering given how many receiving yards the Bills have given up to RBs this year.

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.