Fantasy Football Conference Championship Tight End Start/Sit: Travis Kelce, Dalton Kincaid, Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz

Conference Championship weekend is a bittersweet time, just like the Super Bowl. It means the best teams of the season are playing the biggest games, which makes for great entertainment, but it also means we’re running perilously short on football.

The best way to make the most of the remaining time is to be as immersed as possible, and fantasy football/DFS is one of the best ways to do that. With so few players in action, we can dig a little deeper into each guy.

Let’s look at the four starting tight ends in action this weekend and their fantasy prospects. I used stats from NFL.com and our FantasySP defensive fantasy rankings and will reference those numbers frequently. Fantasy points and rankings are from FantasyPros.

Zach Ertz, Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles

Ertz had a nice resurgence this season after dealing with injuries the past two years. It was easy to assume a player on the wrong side of 30 with an injury history was done. Instead, he was a top-10 tight end in both standard and PPR while scoring seven touchdowns.

This is about as bad of a matchup as he could face, though. The Eagles allowed the fewest yards per pass attempt by a wide margin and gave up the fifth-least fantasy points per game to tight ends.

It was a tale of two games for Ertz when these teams played in the regular season:

• November 14 @ Philadelphia: 6 catches, 47 yards, and a touchdown
• December 22 @ Washington: 1 catch, 12 yards

Even when he racked up volume catches, Ertz was inefficient. The TD made for a good standard week and great PPR week, but their matchup right before Christmas showed the floor against this Philly D.

Ertz is a risky fantasy play this week. There are better high-end and value options available.

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders

Goedert’s season was interrupted by two injury stretches that limited him to 10 games. He averaged about four catches and 50 yards per game but scored just two touchdowns; it was a middling fantasy season when he was active.

Washington was right in the middle in yards per pass attempt allowed, and they gave up the 10th-least fantasy points per game to tight ends. One of the surprises of the season (and a big reason why the Commanders made the playoffs) is the turnaround of the Washington defense, which was maybe the worst against the pass in 2023.

Goedert missed the second game these teams played, but he had a good day in the first matchup, catching all five of his targets for 61 yards. He’s been inconsistent this season, but Goedert evened out to an OK 2024.

Both playoff games have seen Goedert come in right around his season averages, and he caught a touchdown in the first round against the Packers. He’s a middling player this week; there are better options.

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills

I suggested last week that Kelce was coasting through the season to a degree and could come out looking like his WR1 self once the playoffs started. Sure enough, he showed out against a good Houston defense, turning seven receptions into 117 yards and a touchdown, each number leading his team.

The Bills were in the middle of the league in both yards per pass attempt allowed and fantasy points allowed to TEs. That’s fine against lower-end players, but it’s not a profile made to stop the best tight end of his generation, even if he has lost a half-step.

The first time these teams played, Kelce was anonymous, with just two catches for eight yards. That was part of Kelce’s stroll through the season, though, and I have more faith in him this time around.

Kelce is the top tight end of the week, both because of his reputation and the circumstances around this game.

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs

This is the best tight end matchup in the playoffs. While the Chiefs were average in pass defense, they were torn about by TEs all season. KC gave up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position.

Kincaid took a step backward from his rookie season. Despite his team not having a true top receiver, Kincaid’s catches and yards were down from 2023. He only played 13 games, but his per-game averages were lower also. He did match his touchdown total, though: two.

Kincaid is a questionable player with a really good matchup. He missed the Week 11 game these teams played, but fellow tight end Dawson Knox had four receptions for 40 yards. If a lesser player like Knox can have a decent game, Kincaid can also excel.

Beware, though: there is a low floor in this one to go with an OK ceiling.

Conference Championship Tight End Rankings

1. Travis Kelce, KC
2. Dalton Kincaid, BUF
3. Dallas Goedert, PHI
4. Zach Ertz, WSH