June 18 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Streamers: Triston McKenzie, Lance Lynn, Alec Marsh and More

I don’t look at the standings very often before August. It’s good to know who is doing well and who is struggling, but so much changes over a long season that the team in first place at the end of April or May has a better chance of losing the top spot than keeping it at the end of the year.

About a month from the All-Star game and with the trade deadline to follow, the standings are about to mean a lot for a stretch as teams decide if they want to add Major League talent, collect prospects, or stand pat. With relatively large gaps between first and second in most divisions, it might end up being more about the Wild Card chase for many teams.

Let’s look at Tuesday's probable starters (according to MLB.com) who are widely available in fantasy leagues and have good matchups, creating streaming value. Most stats and rankings are from MLB. You can find the full streamer rankings at the bottom.

Slade Cecconi, Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals

Cecconi was just OK striking batters out in the minors with 340 in 331.2 innings. His strikeout rate has dropped well below average in 71.1 Major League innings, but Cecconi also walks a miniscule number of batters to help himself out. He’s not great at limiting hard contact, which has helped lead to his career ERA of 5.80 (and 6.70 this season).

While they’re closer to 20th in batting average and on-base percentage, the Nationals struggle to hit for power, ranking in the bottom three in triples, home runs and slugging percentage and the bottom 10 in doubles and OPS. There aren’t enough good hitters on this team to consistently score runs if they’re not finding power.

Cecconi is a low- to mid-level streamer. His lack of strikeouts will always cap his ceiling, and Washington batters are in the bottom 10 in Ks, so that will likely be a small part of this one, meaning Cecconi will have to find value other ways.

Bailey Falter, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds

Falter has a similar outlook to Cecconi, not striking out a lot of hitters but also limiting walks; Falter’s percentages are a little higher in each category. Falter has done better limiting runs, holding a 3.86 ERA this season, and part of that is not giving up home runs. In 2022-23, Falter allowed a homer every five innings; that has fallen to one every seven innings this season.

Cincinnati entered the season as an ascending team that was supposed to compete for their division. Sitting four games under .500, the Reds aren’t out of the playoff race, but they have looked more like a franchise stuck in the mud. Elly De La Cruz is undoubtedly the most exciting player on the team: He leads all Reds (or is tied) in runs scored, hits, triples, home runs, walks and stolen bases. Oh, and he also has struck out more than any player in baseball (95 times).

Falter is a low-level streamer here. The Reds are just an OK matchup, and his lack of strikeouts will always cap Falter’s value.

Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins

I’ve been doing this ongoing thing now and again of seeing where Luis Arraez ranks in certain stats among Miami hitters. The reason it stands out is that Arraez was traded to the Padres on May 4, over six weeks ago. Despite his absence, only five Marlins have more hits than Arraez did for Miami (and a sixth is tied with Arraez’s 41 hits); he ranks fourth in runs scored. In a related story, the Marlins are one of the worst offensive teams in baseball.

Lynn has kept an above-average strikeout rate but is also walking batters at a higher rate than any time since 2018. His ERA looks OK at 3.75, but he has also allowed 12 unearned runs against 29 earned. Accounting for all his runs would raise that number close to 5.30; that’s not exactly fair, but Lynn has been allowing more runs than it seems at first glance.

Lynn is a mid- to high-level streamer here. His strikeout work and the great matchup put Lynn in a good spot for a successful outing.

Alec Marsh, Kansas City Royals @ Oakland Athletics

The A’s rank sixth in the league in home runs. That’s about the only positive, as they are 26th or worse in runs scored, hits, batting average, on-base percentage and OPS. While they are in the middle of the league in walks, Oakland hitters have struck out the second most of any team.

Marsh showed very good strikeout rates last year while making about half of his 17 appearances out of the bullpen. Now working exclusively as a starter, he has kept an above average K rate, even as it dropped slightly. He also cut his walk rate to a lower-than-average number, and it has worked out to an ERA under 4.00 this year.

Marsh is a mid- to high-level streamer here. With Oakland striking out as often as almost any team, they are a high-ceiling opponent, especially since Marsh does well in that area.

Triston McKenzie, Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners

McKenzie’s 2022 looked like the breakout of a star: 191.1 innings, ERA under 3.00, strikeout rate over 25% (league average is around 21-22%) and a walk rate under 6% (average is around 8%). Since then, his K rate has dropped to right at the average, and he’s walking more than twice as many guys as he was previously. McKenzie missed most of 2023, so there’s hope he can find his old form, but he’s noticeably less effective than he was two years ago.

Seattle continues to be a division leader carried by their pitching staff (the Mariners are 12 games over .500!). Mariner pitchers are in the top 10 in ERA, strikeouts, least walks, WHIP and batting average allowed. Conversely, their hitters are in the bottom 10 in runs scored, hits and all four slash categories. And don’t forget that Seattle batters have struck out 20 more times than any other team.

McKenzie is a mid- to high-level streamer here. His past strikeout work combined with Seattle’s swing-and-miss ways give McKenzie a high ceiling, and their lack of offensive prowess gives him a decent floor as well.

Tuesday’s Streamer Rankings

1. Triston McKenzie, CLE
2. Alec Marsh, KC
3. Lance Lynn, STL
4. Slade Cecconi, ARI
5. Bailey Falter, PIT