2024 MLB Division Predictions Update | What Teams will Buy/Sell at the Trade Deadline?

Providing an update on my preseason MLB division projections and then discussing which teams will buy and sell at the trade deadline.

At the beginning of the MLB season, I wrote up an article predicting the MLB division winners for the 2024 season.

At the All-Star break now, it’s a good time to revisit the preseason predictions I had, offer up some updated predictions and then talk about which teams will buy and sell at the trade deadline in a couple weeks. Let’s get to it!

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AL East Prediction

In my preseason prediction, I had the Baltimore Orioles winning the AL East, but the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays also making the playoffs. I had the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox missing the playoffs and rounding out the division.

Right now, the Orioles lead the East and are a game ahead of the Yankees. The Red Sox are in third and just 4.5 games back. The Rays are 10 games back, while the Blue Jays are 14 back.

I’m sticking with my preseason prediction of the Orioles taking the division. New York has struggled over the last month, and while I think the division is decided in the last couple games of the season, I think Baltimore finds a way to get the job done.

New York will still make the postseason as the top wild card team, but I think Boston fades down the stretch and misses the postseason. The Red Sox will finish third in the division.

While Baltimore and New York will be all in at the trade deadline, I think Boston does a few minor moves, but nothing too crazy. The Rays and Blue Jays, on the other hand, will be sellers at the deadline.

I think Toronto is the bigger seller and easily finishes as the division’s worst team. Tampa Bay will sell off a few pieces, but still stick in the wild card hunt until the last week or so of the season.

AL Central Prediction

I picked the Cleveland Guardians to win the Central before the season. I took the Minnesota Twins to finish second and miss the playoffs, while having the Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals and Chicago White Sox round out the division standings.

At the break, Cleveland has a 4.5-game lead over Minnesota for the top spot in the division. Kansas City is in third and seven games back, while Detroit is fourth and 12 games back. Chicago is 27-71 and 32.5 games out of first.

I’m sticking with Cleveland to win the division, but now predicting that the Royals surge past the Twins for second and steal the final wild card playoff spot. Minnesota will finish third and miss the postseason by a couple games, while Detroit hangs in the playoff picture for a while before fading late in the season. Chicago is already out of the playoff picture and looking toward the future.

Cleveland, Minnesota and Kansas City will all buy at the deadline, with Cleveland making the most aggressive moves. I think Detroit sells more than buys, while Chicago is already in full sell mode.

AL West Prediction

I predicted the Texas Rangers to win the West, and the Houston Astros to take a wild card spot before the season. I had the Seattle Mariners in third, Los Angeles Angels in fourth and Oakland Athletics in fifth and all missing the postseason.

It’s the Mariners who lead the division at the break, but the hot Astros are just a game back now. The Rangers are a disappointing 46-50 and five games back. The Angels are fourth and 10 games back, while the Athletics are last and 15 games back.

Right now, only the Mariners are holding a playoff spot. I think it’s the Astros that end up winning the division though, and I think the Rangers and Mariners battle for the final playoff spot, with the Mariners prevailing. The Angels and Athletics already should have an eye on future seasons - they’ll remain in their current division standing by the end of the season.

The Mariners, Astros and Rangers will all buy at the deadline, and I think the Astros’ moves work out the best and propel them to the playoffs again. The Angels and Athletics will both sell off a few pieces  and be eliminated from postseason contention well before the end of the season.

NL East Prediction

I had the Atlanta Braves taking the East this season, with the Philadelphia Phillies in second and earning a wild card spot. I saw the New York Mets in third, Miami Marlins in fourth and Washington Nationals in fifth and all missing the postseason.

The Phillies have a commanding 8.5-game lead over the Braves for the first-place spot in the division. New York is in third and 12.5 games back, while the Nationals are fourth and 18.5 games back. The Marlins are dead last and 29 games back.

I’m switching my division winner pick to the Phillies now, but the Braves will still make the playoffs as the top wild card team. The Mets also currently hold a playoff spot, but I think they lose it by the end of the season. The Nationals will finish fourth in the division but be out of the playoff picture well before the end of the season, and the Marlins will of course finish last and are already on to next season.

Philly will be a big-time buyer at the deadline, while the Braves will also need to make some big moves to offset the injury losses of Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider. I think the Mets will buy, but not enough, and that’ll be what costs them at the end of the season. The Nationals will retool their roster for the future, while the Marlins have already shown they are going to be big sellers.

NL Central Prediction

I struggled predicting the NL Central before the season, thinking all five teams could win it. I eventually chose the St. Louis Cardinals as the division champs, followed by the Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates (the latter four teams all missing the playoffs).

The Brewers have led the division most of the season, but limped into the break and are now just 4.5 games clear of the Cardinals. The Pirates are in third (6.5 games back), Reds are fourth (8 back) and the Cubs are last (8.5 games back). This division still could be won by any team.

I’m still torn on who will prevail in the Central, and while I’d love to pick my Brewers, I’m sticking with my preseason prediction and saying the Cardinals take the crown. I do now have Milwaukee in the playoffs though. I have the Pirates remaining in third, but missing the playoffs. I think the Cubs pass the Reds for fourth place, but both teams miss the playoffs, being eliminated for good in the final week or so of the regular season.

The Cardinals, Brewers and Pirates will all act as buyers at the deadline, while the Reds and Cubs do more selling than buying. I think the Cardinals’ experience will prove too much for the young Brewers, while the Pirates are still a year away from making the postseason.

NL West Prediction

I saw the Los Angeles Dodgers taking the NL West this season, but the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants also earning playoff spots. I had the San Diego Padres in fourth and Colorado Rockies in fifth and missing the playoffs.

At the break, the Dodgers hold a seven-game division lead over the Diamondbacks and Padres. The Giants are fourth and nine games back, while the Rockies sit in last and are 22 games back already.

I’m still taking the Dodgers as the division champs, but with just one playoff spot remaining, I am giving that to the Diamondbacks. The Padres will stick in third and miss the postseason, while the Giants slip a bit more and take fourth in the division. The Rockies will finish last in the West, and maybe in the entire NL.

The Dodgers will be big buyers at the deadline as they try to overcome several injuries. The D-Backs, Padres and Giants will probably all do more buying than selling, while the Rockies definitely sell. I like Arizona to prevail because of their postseason success from a season ago.

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