August 24 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Streamers: Bowden Francis, Colin Rea, Will Warren and More
Saturday's probable starters who are widely available in fantasy leagues and have good matchups.
I mentioned yesterday that Seattle fired their manager, Scott Servais, despite being in the middle of the playoff race, a rare occurrence. This move would usually happen at the end of the year, but I think the team is trying to take advantage of another possible bump in play.
Teams that fire their coach in the middle of the season generally see an improvement in winning percentage over the rest of that year. There are multiple reasons for this, the biggest of which probably being that these teams have generally played terribly before the coach was fired, and simple regression would improve them.
Colloquially, though, teams are refreshed by getting a new voice at the top; it’s kind of like when you take away the top layer from pudding, and there’s so much good underneath. With the trade deadline passed and no major injury returns that will turn the team around, I think Seattle is hoping that the “new coach bump” will help turn the team’s losing ways and get them back into the race for the AL West.
Let’s run through Saturday’s probable starters (according to MLB.com) who are widely available in fantasy leagues and have good matchups, creating streaming value. Most stats and rankings are from MLB. The full streamer rankings are listed at the bottom.
Ky Bush, Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Bush has made just three starts and hasn’t been able to find his control: In 14.2 innings, he has 15 walks and 10 strikeouts. Bush has somehow only given up six runs, but that run total is going to shoot up if he doesn’t throw more strikes. Bush struck out more than a batter per inning in the minors, so there’s hope he can excel in that area.
Detroit is a decent matchup but not to the level of a team like the White Sox. The Tigers rank either 22nd or 23rd in runs scored, hits, doubles, home runs and slugging percentage; they are below that mark in batting average, on-base percentage and OPS. Maybe most importantly, Detroit hitters are among the top 10 in most batter strikeouts.
Bush is a low-level starter. The matchup is just OK, and Bush has been uneven in the big leagues. He’s more of a desperation fantasy starter.
Bowden Francis, Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels
Carson Fulmer, Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays
The Angels and Blue Jays are both in last place in their respective division, each about 15 games back of the leader. Toronto is seven games better but has tougher division opponents, and they also seem to have more hope moving forward, though that would quickly dissipate with another slow start next season.
The Blue Jays are ranked around 20th in many offensive areas, hitting the bottom 10 but not sinking to the furthest depths. The Angels are a notch lower, sitting around 25th in most categories. These are two similar teams who might both see it get worse before things truly turn good.
Francis was listed here before each of his previous two starts, and they have gone very well:
- August 12 @ Angels: seven innings, one run allowed, eight strikeouts, no walks
- August 18 @ Cubs: seven innings, no runs allowed, seven strikeouts, no walks
That’s two great outings, and it’s even better that one was against his opponent in this one. I won’t call Francis an ace-level pitcher after just a few starts , but he also has better-than-average strikeout and walk rates on the season; there’s reason to expect success again in this one.
We’ve been following Fulmer’s recent transition from the bullpen to starting, as he has been on the streamer list often. The results haven’t been stellar: Of his seven starts, just two have lasted five innings or more, and he has allowed two runs or more in all but one of those outings. The idea of turning him into a starter is worth pursuing, but the results haven’t been positive yet.
Francis is a mid- to high-level streamer and Fulmer a low-level streamer. Fulmer is more of a desperation arm; I want to get excited about Francis, but it’s important to temper expectations on a player with limited exposure.
Colin Rea, Milwaukee Brewers @ Oakland Athletics
Rea’s superficial numbers look really good: 11-4 record with a 3.52 ERA on a team cruising to a division title. He does well limiting walks, but he’s also a little below average striking batters out. In his last start, Rea threw seven shutout innings against the Guardians with five strikeouts and no walks.
While the Mariners have been far and away the most strikeout-happy offense all season, Oakland was the clear No. 2 for a long stretch. The A’s have now fallen to fifth in batter Ks, and they have been in the bottom 10 over the past 15 days and the past 30 days. Maybe something happened within the Oakland front office/coaching staff that has made them focus on contact over power, because they have dropped from the top 10 in home runs over the full season to the bottom 10 over the recent stretch when their strikeout rate has improved.
Rea is a mid-level streamer. The matchup is decent, and Rea has been a good pitcher; it’s a streaming match that was meant to be.
Will Warren, New York Yankees vs. Colorado Rockies
The Rockies are away from home, so their lineup becomes vulnerable. I talked about Oakland doing better with strikeouts, and Colorado is the team that took over as the second-most strikeout-prone group. They are 50 Ks behind the Mariners but 30 above the third-place Red Sox, standing out as a clear second. That makes them a high-ceiling opponent for starting pitchers in fantasy.
Warren has made three starts and thrown 14.2 innings, like Chicago’s Bush, but he has been much better with both strikeouts (17) and walks (five) than his fellow rookie, though he is giving up more runs (14). He has been hit hard so far, but there are some underlying numbers in Warren’s favor.
Warren is a low- to mid-level streamer. The strikeout possibilities give him some upside, but Warren’s performance so far tempers expectations.
Saturday’s Streamer Rankings
- Bowden Francis, TOR
- Colin Rea, MIL
- Will Warren, NYY
- Carson Fulmer, LAA
- Ky Bush, CWS
