Fantasy Basketball Impact of Khris Middleton Returning from Injury | Outlooks for Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, Bobby Portis, Taurean Prince, Gary Trent Jr. and More

The Milwaukee Bucks got off to a rough start this season, but turned things around of late and look like a contender in the Eastern Conference again.

The Bucks will get another boost on Friday, as Khris Middleton is set to make his season debut. He’s been out after having double ankle surgery during the offseason.

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Middleton’s Numbers and Fantasy Outlook

Middleton has dealt with a number of injuries over the past several seasons. He only played in 33 games during the 2022-23 season and then got in just 55 during the 2023-24 season.

He averaged 15.1 points, 5.3 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.3 turnovers across 27 minutes last season. Middleton stepped up with the Bucks battling several injuries in the postseason, totaling 148 points, 55 rebounds, 28 assists, three steals, a block and 14 turnovers across six games and 230 minutes played.

When healthy, Middleton is certainly a difference maker. He’s not going to be a high-end fantasy player, like he was several years ago, but he’s still capable of putting up solid numbers on a nightly basis.

Middleton is only rostered in 78% of fantasy leagues right now. There’s a little risk involved with picking him up, but I think he’s worth a gamble. 

It took Middleton a long time to return from the injury, and he was cleared well before now. A month or so ago, sources said that while he’d been cleared to play, he was still working towards physically being ready to hit the court. If that extra time off the court got him fully right, he could increase some of his averages from the past couple seasons.

So unless my fantasy team was absolutely stacked and had no wiggle room for a roster move, I’d absolutely pick up Middleton. If he continues to miss games, or simply isn’t producing a ton, you can drop him after a couple weeks. Don't bail on him too quick though, as it might take him a bit to get comfortable again.

Other Bucks’ Outlooks

With Middleton set to return, the Bucks rotation is certainly going to change as well.

Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard are the team’s top fantasy players, and while having Middleton on the court might alter their averages a touch, I don’t think it’ll be a super drastic change.

Antetokounmpo will still be one of the top fantasy players in the entire league, and if his scoring decreases, his assist numbers will probably increase and offset it.

The same could be said for Lillard. And for as many shots as Middleton might command on a nightly basis, having him out there should also open things up for Lillard and Antetokounmpo, so I view Middleton’s return as a positive for the Bucks’ top two players.

Brook Lopez is also locked into the starting rotation. His scoring average is a bit down from last season, but tossing in his rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, and Lopez is another daily fantasy starter. 

I again don’t see Middleton’s return affecting Lopez’s fantasy value all that much.

It remains to be seen if Middleton comes off the bench or immediately returns to the starting lineup, but given how many starting lineups the Bucks have used already, I’d think they’d be fine inserting Middleton into the rotation.

Taurean Prince has made 21 starts, and was viewed as the early-season replacement for Middleton in the starting rotation. Prince has shot the ball extremely well across his 28.4 minutes per game.

The final starter of late has been Andre Jackson Jr. He’s more of a defensive-minded player, but is also only averaging 18.3 minutes a game.

If the Bucks decide for a taller lineup, then Middleton could take Jackson’s spot in the rotation. If I had to guess though, I think Middleton would take Prince’s starting spot.

Either way, I don’t see Middleton’s return being a negative for Prince or Jackson. Prince should continue to log plenty of minutes, and might actually be a better fantasy asset if he comes off the bench and doesn’t have to contend with Antetokounmpo, Lillard and others for shots right away.

Jackson isn’t a huge fantasy asset right now, and I expect him to continue to log as many minutes as he’s averaging. Starting him alongside Middleton would help alleviate some of the defensive pressure as well, which is another reason why I think he sticks in the lineup over Prince.

Gary Trent Jr., Bobby Portis and AJ Green are all averaging between 20-25 minutes per game.

Trent was starting early in the season, but was moved to the bench after some struggles. He’s got in a better groove of late, scoring in double figures in eight of the past 10 games, so I’d expect the Bucks to keep him in the role he’s already in. Having Middleton around could mean a slight decrease in playing time for Trent though, so that’s something to keep tabs on.

Green is enjoying a breakout season for the Bucks, and has proven to be a good two-way player. He’s struggled a bit with his shooting consistency over the past few weeks, and if that continues and Middleton gels in pretty seamlessly, Green could lose a little playing time as well. He’s not a huge fantasy asset anyway, so it’s not that big of a deal.

Portis, on the other hand, is rostered in 75% of leagues, so he deserves to be talked about a bit more. His averages are down pretty much across the board, and his shooting percentages have tumbled noticeably.

Despite the Bucks having a recent seven-game winning streak, Portis’ plus-minus average was just +1.6 - the Bucks had three single-digit wins in that span and won by a combined 59 in the other four. What I’m getting at is that the Bucks aren’t playing that well with Portis on the court, and getting a versatile wing player in Middleton back could mean less minutes moving forward for Portis.

If Prince is sent to the bench, he could be the backup power forward to Antetokounmpo, which would likely shave a couple minutes off Portis’ average. Portis would still get some minutes as the backup center to Lopez, but the Bucks could also configure their rotation to have Giannis cover that slot more too.

I think Portis will be the rotation player affected most by the return of Middleton. I’m not saying to drop Portis from your fantasy team immediately, but I’d definitely try to plan ahead in case my thinking comes about. Maybe you could trade Portis before his value tapers off.

Delon Wright is another Buck who has played a lot, but struggled to get going. He’s a point guard, so getting a wing back shouldn’t hurt his value all that much, but the Bucks could manipulate their lineup to limit Wright’s minutes going forward too.

Pat Connaughton is the only other Milwaukee player averaging double-digit minutes this season, but he’s been bumped from the rotation already. I doubt that adding Middleton back to the mix would help his cause.

Final Thoughts

While I have my thoughts on how Middleton’s return might affect the Bucks, it’s mostly speculation.

The best way to determine how things are actually affected will come from watching the box scores over the next couple weeks. 

I don’t see Middleton’s return altering the outlook for many notable fantasy players (outside Portis), and I think the own percentages should pretty much stay the same across the board.

I’d add Middleton if he was available in my league though, and then watch those box scores to see what other trends might form.