2022 Fantasy Football: Nick Chubb Headlines Top Five Running Backs To Avoid Based On ADP
Now into mid-July, the fantasy football talk is really starting to pick up. Some fantasy leagues have already been drafted! Running backs are the players on your fantasy team who can net you the largest amount of points in PPR leagues, especially if they are known for catching passes such as Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler. That’s also why Jonathan Taylor is the first overall selection in virtually every 2022 fantasy football mock draft at the moment. Here, we’ll take a look at guys like Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb, who are some of the best rushers in the league but might have their pre-draft ranking a little inflated due to current Average Draft Positions (ADP). We’ll also talk about Ezekiel Elliott’s worsening play over the last four seasons, and why it would be unwise to pick him before the fourth round. Check out the top-five most overdrafted running backs and an honorable mention when looking at ADP in PPR formats. You may want to consider avoiding these running backs on draft day.
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Top Five Fantasy Football Running Backs To Avoid Based On ADP:
RB Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans (ADP: 4.28)
To give you an idea of how efficient Derrick Henry is running the football, look at his numbers from last season. Henry rushed for 937 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2021 though he only played in eight of the Titans’ 17 regular-season games. In Week 8 of last season, Henry sustained a Jones fracture which ended his regular season. The big concern for Henry heading into 2022 is his health and how he is feeling going into the new season. He’s also carried the ball more than anyone in the league over the previous three seasons. If healthy, Henry could be the most valuable player in fantasy football. After all, the former Heisman Trophy winner was named the 2020 Offensive Player of the Year after amassing 2,000+ yards and 17 rushing touchdowns that year. You might consider letting Henry slip a little bit specifically because of injuries. Still, he should be selected in the late-first or early-second round at the latest in PPR formats. Don’t forget that he isn’t the best pass-catcher at the running back position. Considering the Titans traded A.J. Brown and no longer have D’Onta Foreman in the backfield, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Henry get banged up again due to the number of touches he’s expected to see in the rushing game in 2022. If the Titans want to make the postseason again with Ryan Tannehill under center and no A.J. Brown, Henry is going to have to remain healthy and post the numbers of his life. Personally, I don’t see that happening due to the number of huge hits the former Alabama product has already taken in his short NFL career.
RB Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns (ADP: 10.93)
Although Nick Chubb rushed for approximately 200 more rushing yards in 2021 than he did in 2020, he recorded four fewer touchdowns than he did the year before. Part of the reason for Chubb’s declining production has been Kareem Hunt’s increasingly important role in the Browns' offense. While injuries limited Hunt to only eight games in 2021, he still recorded almost 400 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns. He also matched his career-high in yards per carry in 2021, averaging 4.9 yards per rush. Hunt’s versatility is something the Browns want to utilize. Although Hunt played six fewer games than Chubb (14 games played last season) in 2021, he ended the season with more targets (27) in 2021 than Chubb (25). This demonstrates that the Browns plan to use Hunt as a third-down receiver out of the backfield while Chubb focuses on rushing the football on first and second down. If this ends up being the case (which we think it will be), then Chubb’s value in 2022 fantasy football has to be less than it was in 2021. For that reason, consider staying away from Nick Chubb until midway through the second round. He is still one of the best running backs in the game. In only his first four NFL seasons (2018-2021), Chubb has rushed for 4,816 yards and 36 touchdowns. However, the prospect of Deshaun Watson propelling the Browns’ air offense and the growing role of Kareem Hunt makes it probable that Chubb produces less in 2022 than he did in 2021.
RB Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys (ADP: 25.85)
Ezekiel Elliott’s numbers have floundered for four consecutive seasons. Notably, he’s seen progressively fewer snaps in each of the four consecutive seasons. While he exceeded 300 rushing attempts in 2018 and 2019, he had a total of 244 carries in 2020 and 237 carries last season. In addition, he had a career-low 4.0 yards per carry in 2020, only to slightly improve to 4.2 yards per attempt in 2021. Across the board, Ezekiel Elliott’s numbers point to regression and not progression. Likewise, Zeke’s receiving numbers have decreased progressively in each of the last four seasons. He went from catching 77 passes for 567 yards (7.4 yards AVG) in 2018 to only 47 receptions for 287 yards (6.1 yards AVG) last season. Due to the emergence of Tony Pollard and Zeke’s lack of pass-catching skills, fantasy owners shouldn’t consider the former first-round pick until the third round of fantasy football drafts.
RB J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens (ADP: 31.23)
In 2020, J.K. Dobbins rushed for 805 yards for a whopping 6.0 yards per carry and nine touchdowns as a rookie. Tragically, Dobbins’ sophomore season ended before it began. In the Baltimore Ravens’ final preseason game of 2021, the Ohio State product tore his ACL and was consequently shut down for the rest of the season. As of right now, Dobbins’ status for the season opener remains in question. While he could return on time for the beginning of the season, Dobbins has only played one NFL season. While his rookie season was promising, the fact that Dobbins didn’t play a single game in 2021 makes him a running back to be wary of drafting in the third round. Dobbins’ injury status makes him a massive risk and fantasy owners shouldn’t consider him until the fourth or fifth round. Lamar Jackson is going to be running the ball plenty and the Ravens have Mike Davis and Gus Edwards lower on the running back depth chart whom each could eat into Dobbins’ carry total. Dobbins is the best running back on the Ravens’ roster but it’s hard to trust that he will see more than 200 carries in 2022. Not to mention, Davis is likely the superior option on obvious passing downs.
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RB Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders (ADP: 32.93)
In his first two NFL seasons, the Commanders’ third-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft has done a solid job serving as Washington’s lead running back. After rushing for 795 yards in 2020, Gibson rushed for 1,037 yards last season. It is noteworthy that Gibson got into the end zone four more times in his rookie season (11 TDs) than last season (7 TDs). Washington doesn’t have a very potent offense which means Gibson may not find a ton of opportunities in the red zone. Additionally, Washington already has J.D. McKissic and second-year rusher Jarrett Patterson, each of whom could earn snaps. McKissic is a great receiving option out of the backfield on third downs and Patterson excels in short-yardage situations. Plus, Washington selected rookie RB Brian Robinson Jr. in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft out of Alabama. Robinson could make some noise towards the end of his rookie season. Gibson has too much competition in Washington’s backfield to select at the end of the third round. I’d be more comfortable in the late-fourth or early-fifth round.
Honorable Mention Running Back To Avoid Based On ADP:
RB James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 76.03)
James Robinson had a terrific season in 2021. He rushed for 767 yards (4.7 AVG) and eight touchdowns. Still, he had a better rookie season. In 2020, Robinson saw 240 carries for 1,070 yards and seven touchdowns. He also produced 344 yards receiving yards and an additional three touchdowns through the air that year. Last season, his numbers slightly receded. This is especially concerning with the imminent return of Jacksonville’s second first-round selection in the 2021 NFL Draft: RB Travis Ettienne.
Etienne already has a solid rapport and great chemistry with the second-year quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, considering the duo played together and won a championship together in college at the University of Clemson. Due to Etienne’s expected to return in 2022, fantasy owners shouldn’t expect nearly as much production (specifically in the passing game) from Robinson. Robinson may still be the lead back on early downs but Etienne should see the bulk of the workload in obvious passing situations and on third downs. Etienne is going to see a ton of targets in 2022 as one of the best pass-catching running backs in the NFL. This will also negatively impact Robinson’s targets after catching 31 passes on 46 targets for 222 receiving yards in 2021. We still don’t know which running back will start for the Jaguars but one thing is for sure, Etienne is going to be utilized as much as possible and Robinson’s value is going to take a significant hit as we approach the 2022 fantasy football season.
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