Fantasy Football Draft Analysis: Wide Receiver Draft Trends
Now is the time of year when fantasy football ADP is shifting more than ever. The market shifts with every preseason play and every beat reporter tweet that goes viral. With that in mind, we've looked at draft trends for both quarterbacks and running backs, next up is wide receivers. As always, all of the ADP data mentioned in this article comes from our awesome ADP Tool.
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Fantasy Football ADP Risers: Wide Receivers
WR36 Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks (-5.67)
The biggest riser among the top 50 WRs, JSN has risen by 5.67 picks of ADP, nearly half a round, over the last week. While his landing spot in a very crowded Seattle WR room isn't ideal for his fantasy value, managers are clearly tempted by the talent of the first rookie WR off the board at this year's draft. This recent rise lands him as the WR36 overall, still behind teammates DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, but by far the highest of any NFL team's WR3. That price feels about right for a supremely talented route runner whose fantasy output will depend greatly on whether he sees a healthy share of snaps and targets.
WR48 Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens (-4.38)
It's clearly rookie WR hype season as Flowers, who was selected two picks after JSN on draft night, follows him up again as the second-fastest rising WR over the last week. And it's not just the last week: Flowers' ADP has been climbing steadily over the last month, and he is now being selected nearly 40 full picks earlier than he was in mid-July. This is likely due to the steady dose of highlights he has been churning out in camp, as well as the consistently glowing reviews from Ravens beat writers and coaches. Like JSN, whether Flowers returns value at his new WR48 ADP will depend on where he lands in the pecking order for targets. With Mark Andrews firmly cemented as Lamar Jackson's favorite target, Flowers will have to beat out Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman for the WR1 role in order to see consistent volume. If he does, watch out, as he could be one of the best values of the season. If not, he'll likely disappoint relative to his post-hype Round 10 ADP.
WR12 Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints (-1.97)
Olave's total movement of just about two picks of ADP isn't as impressive as his rookie counterparts, but given that Olave is being selected in the early third round as the WR12, it's a huge relative change. The Saints sophomore posted over 1,000 yards in 15 games as a rookie, and many are expecting a true WR1 breakout from him in 2023. While he didn't record a catch on one target in the Saints' first preseason game, he has had his own share of camp hype and highlights. Managers are buying into the potential for a classic sophomore WR breakout from Olave, and he certainly has a chance to pay them off.
Fantasy Football ADP Fallers: Wide Receivers
WR43 Kadarius Toney, Kansas City Chiefs (+2.32)
Following this fall, Toney is now being drafted outside the top 100 overall picks as the WR43, a far cry from where he once was, peaking as high as the seventh round. But that is what suffering your 10th injury as your approach just your third year in the league will do. Toney tore his meniscus on just the first day of Chiefs camp, and while there is a chance he returns for Week 1, there is no guarantee he will stay healthy once he's out there. Fantasy managers will always be tempted by the upside with the former Giants' first-rounder, looking back fondly on his 189-yard explosion against the Cowboys in his rookie year and salivating at what he can do as Patrick Mahomes' WR1. But for now, expect Toney's ADP to keep falling while he watches from the medical tent as other Chiefs WRs flash in camp and preseason.
WR42 Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions (+2.26)
The reason behind this one is obvious: Already projected to miss the first six games of the season due to a gambling suspension, Williams has now suffered a hamstring injury in camp. This comes after a rookie year that he essentially red-shirted while recovering from a torn ACL, recording just one catch in six games. To make matters even worse, Williams apparently wasn't having the best camp even before his injury, with rumors of drops and concentration issues. Like Toney, Williams has enough perceived talent and upside that he will still be drafted in every fantasy league, but he's trending down for now.
WR30 Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts (+1.35)
Unlike the previous two names, it's harder to pin down exactly why Pittman is falling. Perhaps it is because we received final confirmation that rookie Anthony Richardson will be his starting quarterback as early as Week 1. As a potentially raw, and certainly dual-threat, rookie QB, Richardson is exactly the kind of quarterback you don't want your fantasy WRs to have. On the other hand, Pittman is a quality receiver and the unquestioned WR1 in the Colts' offense. While he may not have the elite upside that fantasy managers crave, WR30 feels closer to his floor than his ceiling. After all, he finished as the WR28 in PPR points per game last year, and it's not like the Colts' offense can get much worse.
