Fantasy Football Boom or Bust? Wide Receivers To Avoid: Calvin Ridley, Keenan Allen, and More!
Finding sleepers is one of the most important things you can do in your fantasy football draft, but avoiding busts is an underrated important part of draft-day too.
Busts aren't just the guys who are going to end up sitting on waiver wires all year. They're also (and perhaps more importantly) the guys you end up drafting too high and not returning value. That's incredibly important because that quarterback you overdraft by three rounds is going to make you miss out on a sure-thing running back or wide receiver.
I'll never put a player on a "DO NOT DRAFT" list. Everyone is worth drafting at the right price.
We should always be looking for value in drafts and spending draft picks on guys who will provide a negative return is one of the best ways to put yourself at a disadvantage right out of the gate.
With quarterback and running back busts already covered, let's dig into a few of the running backs who are being drafted too high right now.
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Fantasy Football Wide Receivers To Avoid
Calvin Ridley
This isn't me telling you not to draft Calvin Ridley at all. This is me telling you not to draft Calvin Ridley at his current ADP (which is somewhere around 30-35 as WR15-16). That's just way too rich for a player who really hasn't played in two years, and you're not leaving yourself enough upside.
Is it more likely that Ridley finishes in the WR5-10 range or in the WR20-30 range? I'd very much bet on the latter.
Ridley is a really good player (or maybe moreso was a really good player), but there is so much uncertainty coming into this year.
The long layoff combined with his new team has me worried. While could obviously prove me wrong, there are a lot of receiving mouths to feed in Jacksonville, and I have a tough time pulling the trigger on Ridley when I can take more proven guys like D.K. Metcalf, D.J. Moore, Deebo Samuel, or Tee Higgins in the same range.
Keenan Allen
Allen is a really good player, but he's also entering his age 31 season and only played 10 games last year.
Previous to 2022, he was Mr. Reliable in hitting 100-plus receptions in four of five seasons. However, he's never put up more than eight receiving touchdowns in a season so his upside is a tad limited there.
He'll also have to deal with the addition of rookie Quentin Johnston to the mix so his targets will likely take a bit of a hit this year.
I'm more than fine drafting Allen if he falls a round or two, but he's much more of a possession receiver with limited big-play potential and he's being drafted as a top-20 receiver. Similar to Ridley, you're not leaving much room for upside there.
With higher upside players like D.J. Moore, Christian Watson, and Deebo Samuel available right around the same ADP (WR15-20), Allen looks a little out of place to me. I'd be more comfortable drafting him in the WR25-30 range near the likes of Terry McClaurin, Brandon Aiyuk, Chris Godwin, Diontae Johnson, and Tyler Lockett.
DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins is more or less in the same category for me as Allen, except maybe even more worrisome.
Like Allen, he's been Mr. Reliable (to an extent), but is entering his age 31 season.
He's also had a PED suspension in his recent past (never a good sign) and has only played 19 total games over the past two seasons.
Hopkins has more touchdown upside historically compared to Allen, but he's also playing in an extreme run-first offense and has a bottom-10 quarterback throwing him the ball in Ryan Tannehill.
While Hopkins does have the saving grace of being the Titans' only proven receiver, I just can't talk myself into him as a WR20-22 (which is right around where he's going). I'd much rather take Deebo or D.J. Moore there or even take a flier on a higher upside player like Watson or Drake London.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
While I have absolutely no issue with coming out of my draft with St. Brown, it won't be as a top-8 receiver like he's currently being drafted as.
ARSB is a really good player, but he sticks out like a sore thumb (at least to me) alongside names like A.J. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, and Davantae Adams. Those are all proven, elite fantasy receivers. And while St. Brown could enter that stratosphere, he seems more suited to be in the WR12-15 range alongside guys like Chris Olave, DeVonta Smith, and Tee Higgins.
St. Brown still has upside and room to grow at just 23 years old, but he's also dealing with Jared Goff as his quarterback and should theoretically have less of a path to a massive target share with rookie Jahmyr Gibbs commanding some passes and second-year player Jameson Williams entering the fray (post-suspension in Week 7).
I'm more than fine diving in on St. Brown if he's still there once Brown/Lamb/Adams and even Garrett Wilson are gone, but I just don't think you're leaving yourself much upside taking him as a top-10 receiver considering he's never put up more than 1,161 yards or six touchdowns in a season.
Marquise Brown
While Brown being drafted in the WR30-35 range doesn't scream "BUST", his quarterback situation does.
The Cardinals are going to start the season with either Joshua Dobbs or Clayton Tune under center, and that's just bad news for Brown.
The 26-year-old has put up a solid NFL career thus far, but he's only surpassed 70 receptions and 1,000 yards once in his career. Even though he has big-play potential, he's also only scored nine total touchdowns over the past two seasons.
If you told me Kyler Murray would be healthy and under center after Week 4 when he's eligible to return, I'd feel a lot better about Brown. But the Cardinals look to be in tank-now mode so I worry about Brown's prospects.
He's not an abysmal value at this point in the draft, but I'd rather take a shot on guys like George Pickens, Jahan Dotson, Gabe Davis, and Michael Pittman Jr.
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