Lions Running Back Fantasy Football Outlook: Jahmyr Gibbs vs. David Montgomery
The Detroit Lions enter the 2023 season with some lofty expectations for the first time in a while. Detroit pushed for a playoff spot before being eliminated prior to their Week 18 game last season. After winning eight of their final 10 games, the Lions are a popular pick to make the playoffs.
Detroit enters the season with the same quarterback, Jared Goff, and some familiar receivers, but a completely revamped running back room. Detroit drafted talented Alabama back Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and also signed David Montgomery away from the division rival Chicago Bears.
Gibbs is the 17th-ranked running back according to the FSP ADP tool, while Montgomery sits at RB30. It remains to be seen how the Lions utilize both guys, so which of the two should you target in your drafts? Let’s try and figure that out.
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Jahmyr Gibbs Fantasy Football Outlook
Gibbs starred at Alabama in 2022 after playing his first two seasons at Georgia Tech. At Bama, he rushed for 926 yards and seven touchdowns, while catching 44 passes for 444 yards and three more scores. The 1,370-total-yard, 10-touchdown season was a touch better than the 1,216-yard, six-score season he had at Georgia Tech in 2021.
Those productive seasons were enough to make Gibbs the second running back off the board in the draft. One would expect a first-round pick being used on a running back to automatically mean they are the starting back in their rookie season, but Montgomery is actually listed as the starter on the Lions' unofficial depth chart as the season begins.
I'm not sure that means a whole lot though. As most NFL teams seem to be doing, it appears that the Lions might utilize more of a two-back approach, not necessarily splitting the touches in half, but not using one as a workhorse either. That’s a bit of a problem for fantasy managers, as a late second or early third-round pick would ideally be used on a player that you are certain will function as a lead back.
The upside on Gibbs is certainly higher than Montgomery, but if you are in Redraft leagues, drafting Gibbs that high is a risky pick. It's not quite late enough in the draft to take a chance on a player without a guaranteed lead role.
David Montgomery Fantasy Football Outlook
The thing that hurts Gibbs’ value is Montgomery’s career numbers. While he’s produced just one 1,000-yard season in his four-year career in Chicago, he’s averaged about four yards a carry and scored 26 touchdowns. Montgomery is also a threat out of the backfield, with 25+ catches in each season and over 300 yards receiving in three straight campaigns.
Those statistics seem ideal for a backup back, which makes Montgomery a sneaky pick. Currently, he’s going somewhere in the sixth round, and a 1,000 total-yard season from a pick in that round is definitely a way to enjoy a strong fantasy season.
While Montgomery might not lead Detroit in rushing attempts, as he did in Chicago last season, he should still see ample opportunities for touches in the team’s improving offense. He’s definitely a guy to monitor after most of the for-sure starting backs are off the board.
Who Should You Draft?
The Lions’ backfield situation is a tricky one to predict from a fantasy perspective. Both guys in that room are capable of producing 1,000-yard seasons with several touchdowns on top of that. Most NFL offenses have shown that there are plenty of ways to get two different backs involved, and it wouldn’t shock me in the slightest if both guys got double-digit touches in a contest.
In terms of where they are being drafted, getting Gibbs with one of the last picks in Round 2 is a bit early for me. I’d prefer to take him with a pick in the middle-to-late third. There are some other without-a-doubt starters going in that range, including after Gibbs, and I would rather take one of them.
If you pass on Gibbs, Montgomery is definitely a name to keep in your mind for a possible pick in Round 6 or 7. He might not be the top back by the end of the year, but it’s highly unlikely the Lions won’t give him ample opportunities after signing him.
Overall, I like both backs in terms of what they can produce for a fantasy manager, but am far more comfortable rostering Montgomery at his ADP than spending an earlier pick on Gibbs.
