Chiefs Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Week 1 Outlook: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, Rashee Rice
There’s no denying that the Kansas City Chiefs have one of the best offenses heading into the 2023 season. A lot of that has to do with quarterback Patrick Mahomes, as he can seemingly turn any receiver on the roster into a star.
That complicates things for fantasy players who own any of the Chiefs’ pass catchers. Another thing to keep in mind is how many targets and scores tight end Travis Kelce might steal. Jerick McKinnon is listed as a running back but excels primarily as a receiver, taking even more looks away.
So which Kansas City receiver should you start in Week 1? Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Rashee Rice are all ranked in the top 80 in our Week 1 projections, so let’s discuss which player(s) should earn a start in your week 1 lineup.
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Marquez Valdes-Scantling Week 1 Outlook
Valdes-Scantling is the team’s top returning wide receiver from 2022, in which he hauled in 42 of his 81 targets for 687 yards and two scores. His 16.3-yard average was tops on the team for players over 15 receptions. Valdes-Scantling was targeted at least once in every game and had just two games where he went without a catch.
Our Week 1 projections have MVS at four targets, 2.7 receptions, 43 yards and 0.3 touchdowns, with a trust score of 63, the highest mark out of the four KC receivers ranked in the top 80.
The Chiefs' balanced attack is always a tough one to figure out on a week-to-week basis, and with Kansas City opening the year against an unfamiliar opponent, and it being the opening week of a new season, there isn’t a whole lot of history to rely on. MVS is now entering his second year in the Chiefs’ system, and given Mahomes’ willingness to target the receiver as many times as he did in year one, there’s at least some hope their connection grows even more in year two. Of the three projected returning starters (MVS, Toney, Moore), Valdes-Scantling was easily the most productive in 2022.
Detroit struggled mightily against the pass a season ago, with the third-most passing yards allowed. The Lions also weren’t great against the run though, and finished with the most total yards allowed.
Skyy Moore Week 1 Outlook
Moore comes in just one spot behind MVS in the FSP Week 1 rankings. Moore tallied 22 receptions for 250 yards among his 33 targets in 2022 as a rookie, and he did not haul in a regular-season touchdown reception, although he did score one in the Chiefs' Super Bowl win.
Moore’s playing time was a bit limited after being drafted in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft, but now he’s poised for a starting role and a lot more snaps. But for now, we are relying on a projection more than a history of production to look back on.
Moore is projected to earn five targets (the most on the Chiefs) and go for 39 yards on 3.5 catches. He also is projected for 0.3 touchdowns. His trust rating is a fair bit below Valdes-Scantling, at 53.
Kadarius Toney Week 1 Outlook
Toney joined Kansas City in Week 8 of the 2022 NFL season. The former Giants' first-rounder ended up playing in nine games with four starts, collecting 14 catches on 17 targets for 171 yards and a touchdown.
While he doesn't have a ton of game experience catching passes from Mahomes, his introduction to the offense in 2022 paired with a whole offseason to familiarize himself definitely sets Toney up better this season. While he suffered an injury in camp that required surgery, he is reportedly "good to go" for Thursday's matchup.
Toney is projected to earn four targets in Week 1, going for 33 yards on 2.9 receptions. Like MVS and Moore, he’s projected at 0.3 touchdowns, but with a trust rating of only 39.
Rashee Rice Week 1 Outlook
Rice enters his first season with the Chiefs after being the team’s second-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Rice got plenty of work in the preseason and he left fans with reason for optimism as the season opens up. It remains to be seen what kind of role the rookie serves, but being listed as a backup likely means he will have to earn more looks in his limited chances early on.
Still, in the high-powered KC offense, he’s projected for four targets, 2.7 receptions, 33 yards, and 0.2 touchdowns.
Who Do I Start Week 1?
Since the departure of Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs haven’t had a bonafide No. 1 receiver on the roster, instead spreading the ball around pretty equally while still enjoying a huge amount of success. Heading into 2023, a balanced passing attack again seems likely, with any of the eligible pass-catchers on the field on a given play serving as a potential weapon.
As the team readies itself for the season opener on Thursday against the Lions, I’d put the most trust in Valdes-Scantling, given he’s the most seasoned among the four receivers ranked in our Week 1 projections. He shouldn’t be looked to as your No. 1 wideout, but his big-play ability gives him a shot to help out your team, even if his overall target number isn’t high. In the league’s opening game and against a defense that struggled a year ago, I expect Valdes-Scantling to make enough plays to warrant a spot in your starting lineup.
I’d put Moore and Toney in the same boat, much like our projections do. There isn’t a history of either of them excelling in this offense, but one of them will have to fill the void left by the departure of JuJu Smith-Schuster. Which guy that is remains to be seen, so I’d wait a week to see just how much each guy plays and how involved they are.
Like Moore and Toney, it remains to be seen how much Rice plays and contributes to the newest version of the Chiefs’ offense. If I rostered Rice, I'd wait at least a week to see where he sits in the pecking order. I could see him earning a role over time, but with so many other options to pass to that have already proven themselves, he likely isn’t worth a starting spot early in the season.
