Fantasy QB Streaming: Is Jared Goff a Week 1 Streaming Option Against the Chiefs?
I have long been a proponent of streaming kickers and defenses, and many times that extends to tight ends and, sometimes, quarterbacks. It's not easy to manage that many positions week-to-week, especially in multiple leagues, but it helped me learn to comb through stats to find good streaming options.
One quarterback stood out to me this week as maybe the best streamer at the position: Jared Goff of the Detroit Lions. Detroit opens the season Thursday night against the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs, and there are reasons to expect the game to be high-scoring and Goff to have a top-10 fantasy performance. Let's look at the numbers in Goff's favor, the players around him who will help, and one huge factor in his favor.
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Kansas City allows A LOT of Passing Yards
There are several factors conspiring to inflate the fantasy points the Chiefs allow: they score a lot, so teams have to throw to catch up; they often play the best teams in the AFC due to their first-place schedules, and that includes Joe Burrow and Josh Allen showing up often; when Kansas City grows big leads, teams are throwing in essential "garbage time" and racking up meaningless yards and touchdowns.
Whatever the case, quarterbacks thrive against the Chiefs, as they gave up the third-most fantasy points in the league to quarterbacks last season (according to Pro Football Reference, who all of these numbers are from). In fact, they gave up the fifth-most completions on the third-most attempts, allowing the eighth-most passing yards and four MORE passing touchdowns than any other defense (33). That's a team you want your fantasy QB playing.
Goff has Talented Offensive Weapons
Goff is throwing to a talented crew, and they have good matchups along with their QB. Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown was drafted as a borderline WR1 this season for good reason: he had 106 receptions for 1,161 yards last season, his second in the league, and he's scored 11 touchdowns. The Chiefs allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to receivers in 2022 and tied for second-most receiver touchdowns allowed.
Kansas City was bottom-10 in the league in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends last season, and glowing reports have been coming out about rookie tight end Sam LaPorta. First-year tight ends notoriously struggle to produce, but he is a good option on paper in the passing game.
The Chiefs were tougher on running backs in 2022, finishing in the top half of the league in fantasy points allowed to backs, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns (tied for second-least). Where they did struggle, though, is stopping running backs in the passing game. Kansas City allowed the most receptions to backs, the fourth-most yards, and four touchdowns (league high was six).
Those stats bold well for rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, a player the Lions drafted 12th overall this year (surprising many) and whom they have expressed desire to give the ball both on the ground and through the air. Gibbs will probably be the receiving half of a time-share this season, but Week 1 is a good matchup to start his career hot. Having a three-headed receiving monster of St. Brown, LaPorta, and Gibbs gives Goff the pieces to succeed against a leaky Chiefs defense.
The Chiefs are Without Chris Jones
No one ever wishes for an injury, but celebrating a hold-out seems more acceptable. Defensive tackle Chris Jones, the Chiefs' best pass rusher and best defensive player, has been holding out and will probably not play Week 1. The Chiefs had the second-most sacks in the league last year, 55 total, and Jones had 15.5 of those. That's over 28%. In 2021 he had over 29% of their sacks (9 of 31) and 2020 over 23% (7.5 of 32).
The defense will likely struggle without their game wrecker. The running game will probably be more successful, Goff will have cleaner pockets, and the Lions will be more free to move up and down the field against a compromised defense.
Jared Goff Fantasy Outlook
Goff is ranked 17th among quarterbacks this week by Fantasy SP, a sentiment shared by most outlets. He is playing a generous defense, something he took advantage of last season. Goff played four games against his division-mates the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings last season, the teams ranked sixth- and seventh-worst in the league in QB fantasy points last season.
- Against the Bears in two combined games: 40-55 passing (72.7%), 491 yards, 4 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 3 sacks
- Against the Vikings in two combined games: 52-80 passing (65%), 607 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception, 0 sacks
That's Goff tearing apart two bad QB defenses over four games. One game against each team was in the first half of the season and the other game in the second half. I have a lot of faith in Goff this week to outplay many names ranked above him, like Sam Howell, Kirk Cousins, and Geno Smith.
