Fantasy Football Week 12 Start/Sit Decisions: Jauan Jennings vs. D.J. Moore, Josh Downs, Quentin Johnston, Jameson Williams, Jakobi Meyers

Heading into Week 12, the FantasySP team has you covered for all your fantasy football start/sit questions! I’ve already taken a look at some defenses and wide receivers, and you can check out our entire Start Sit Decision section for even more breakdowns. If the decision you’re looking for hasn’t been covered, never fear, the FantasySP Start/Sit Tool can give you an answer!

However, if you’re deciding whether to trust breakout fantasy star Jauan Jennings now that the 49ers will be without Brock Purdy, this is the article for you! Jennings had cemented himself as a must-start with Purdy under center, but the 49ers’ offense will look very different with Brandon Allen in control. Let’s take a deep dive into Jennings’ outlook, then compare him to some other fantasy wide receivers for Week 12.

Looking for more help with your toughest fantasy football Start/Sit decisions? Be sure to check out the FantasySP Start/Sit Tool!

Jauan Jennings Week 12 Fantasy Outlook

As I said in the intro, I would have called Jennings a 100% must-start without this injury to his quarterback. That may sound strange for a 27-year-old receiver with no history of elite fantasy production prior to this year and only a handful of good games even in this season, but the numbers don’t lie. Jennings has been one of the best receivers in the league this season.

Among qualified receivers, Jennings ranks exactly fifth in each of PFF Receiving Grade, yards per route run, and ESPN’s Receiver Score. The only other two receivers to rank in the top five in all three metrics are Nico Collins and A.J. Brown — not bad company. And while those are all rate stats, Jennings has seen elite WR1 volume ever since Brandon Aiyuk exited with an injury.

Over the last two weeks (the only two weeks he has played without Aiyuk), Jennings has easily led the 49ers in route participation rate (89%), target share (33%), and air yards share (39%). With a 41% first-read target share and over 10 targets per game, he has undeniably been the top receiving option in the San Francisco offense. He’s turned that usage into fantasy points, with an average of 16.5 Half-PPR points over those two games.  

Of course, everything changes without Purdy. As a 49er fan myself, I’ve accused Purdy of being a product of Kyle Shanahan’s system — I believe I once called him “Jimmy Garoppolo with extra mobility and better PR.” However, he has taken steps forward and has been legitimately elevating the 49ers’ offense this year. Replacing him with journeyman veteran Brandon Allen is going to make a huge difference. 

Unfortunately, Jennings will likely be the most affected of the 49ers’ weapons by this change, as he relies the most on winning down the field in a traditional X-receiver role. Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle will likely see some extra short touches for explosive YAC opportunities, but that’s not really Jennings’ game. It doesn’t help that he is facing a Green Bay defense that is a bottom-10 schedule-adjusted fantasy matchup for wide receivers. 

With all that said, Jennings is by no means a must-bench. His usage and performance this season have both been absolutely elite. And even if Purdy isn’t a system quarterback, we know that Shanahan’s system can get results with less-than-ideal QB play. Jennings is more of a risky WR2 than a WR1, but he’s absolutely still in play in a week with this many byes. Let’s compare him to some other wide receiver options with good-not-great profiles for Week 12.

Jauan Jennings vs. D.J. Moore

A week ago, I would have absolutely recommended Jennings, no matter who his QB was. After all, Moore has just one top-30 fantasy finish in the entire season, and the Chicago offense had been miserable heading into Week 11. Combine his lack of production with DJM walking off the field mid-play and looking miserable all season long, and he looked like a must-bench player. 

However, new Bears OC Thomas Brown changed things for the better last Sunday. He simplified Chicago’s passing offense, leading to Caleb Williams targeting his first read at a massively improved rate. And a fair chunk of those easy targets went to Moore, as Brown clearly prioritized getting the ball in his hands. Moore set easily a season-high with four screen receptions (for 44 yards) and even handled one carry. He did only see three targets that weren’t screens, but he was still the team’s clear top WR in terms of routes, so we can expect his downfield target share to improve going forward. 

That new usage has Moore firmly back on the fantasy radar. It’s perfect timing, too, as the Bears are facing off with a Minnesota defense that is one of the best in the league but still allows the fourth-most adjusted fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. At the very least, I expect Moore to see another healthy dose of screens, meaning his floor is higher than Jennings’. This is a close call, but I’m giving Moore the edge.

Start: D.J. Moore

Jauan Jennings vs. Josh Downs

Here we have another very talented player who comes with his fair share of red flags. The pro for Josh Downs is that he is one of the most talented young receivers in the league, full stop. Jennings, Collins, and AJB may be the only players to rank in the top five in each of PFF Grade, ESPN Score, and yards per route run, but Downs cracks the top 10 in all three metrics (for what it’s worth, Chris Godwin does the same). 

The issue with Downs is that his quarterback is Anthony Richardson, the most inaccurate quarterback we’ve seen in years. For the season, Richardson’s completion percentage is 10.6% below expected — no other qualified quarterback is at even 3% below expected. That issue is compounded by the fact that Downs only plays in three-receiver sets. He has to be hyper-efficient with the snaps he does get, and having a QB who only throws a catchable pass 64% of the time doesn’t allow him to do that. For the season, Downs is averaging just 3.3 receptions in games played mostly by Richardson, compared to 7.4 in games played by backup Joe Flacco.

To his credit, Richardson had his best game of the season in Week 11. He actually finished with a completion percentage 7.3% above expected, including connecting with Downs five times for 84 yards and a touchdown. However, I’m not sold that a few games on the bench magically fixed his accuracy issues, which date back to his college career.

On the bright side, Downs does have an excellent matchup with the Lions. They’re a good matchup for receivers overall, but Detroit’s defense is by far the softest in the league against slot receivers in particular. That bodes well for Downs, as does the fact that this will likely be a game where the Colts are trailing (and therefore using three-WR sets). However, having Richardson at quarterback brings Downs equal to Jennings in having questionable QB play, and I prefer the rest of Jennings’ situation. It’s close, but I’m backing the guy who will at least be running routes every single play. 

Start: Jauan Jennings

Jauan Jennings vs. Quentin Johnston

After an undeniably terrible rookie season, the Chargers’ 2023 first-round pick has taken some solid steps forward as a sophomore. He ranks as the WR32 with 10.4 Half-PPR points per game. Admittedly, a decent chunk of his production has come from blown coverage, but that’s still a solid number. 

Meanwhile, Johnston’s situation is easily the best of the receivers we’ve looked at so far. Justin Herbert has been playing like the best quarterback in the league over the last month, and Jim Harbaugh has started to let him cook with a positive pass rate vs. expected. 

That sets up beautifully for a matchup with the Ravens, who have been absolutely shredded by opposing WRs this season. Baltimore leads the league in adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs by a mile, and they also lead in both yards per game and touchdowns per game allowed to the position. They give up tons of explosive plays, too, which is perfect for QJ’s deep-threat role in the Chargers’ offense. In a different matchup, this decision would be tougher. Against the Ravens, it’s a no-brainer.

Start: Quentin Johnston

Jauan Jennings vs. Jameson Williams

Early in the season, it looked as though Jameson Williams was on his way to a massive breakout season. Since then, his usage has regressed, and he is now just a small piece of the Lions’ offense. Of course, if you're going to be a small part of an offense, Detroit is absolutely the place to be. Williams is also a tremendous big-play threat, meaning he can have an elite fantasy day on just a handful of touches.

This week, Jamo gets a slightly above-average matchup with the Colts’ defense. Sam LaPorta's return will likely cut into his usage somewhat, but we can count on him to see at least a few deep targets in every game. 

This is the toughest decision of the article for me, as I have Jennings and Williams back-to-back in my WR rankings for this week. I’m going to give the nod to Williams, as Jennings now has the same floor concerns as him without the same explosive ceiling, but you may as well flip a coin for this one.

Start: Jameson Williams

Jauan Jennings vs. Jakobi Meyers

After a razor-thin margin for our second-to-last decision, this final choice suddenly seems very easy. In games without Davante Adams, Meyers is averaging an elite 25% target share. Yes, this is a very tough matchup with the Broncos’ secondary, but we’ve actually seen Meyers have success against them before: He caught six of nine targets for 72 yards against his divisional rival in Week 5.

I’m a little concerned by the fact that Meyers saw his worst target share of the post-Adams era at just 12% last week, but I expect him to bounce back this week. Especially in any kind of PPR format, we have to take the volume floor that Meyers provides over the suddenly very risky Jennings. 

Start: Jakobi Meyers  

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.